Sac found time for a few posts this morning but no thread starter, so here it is. Nothing to contribute yet, but someone might want to post an opinion or a rant, or whatever. Have at it!
Sac found time for a few posts this morning but no thread starter, so here it is. Nothing to contribute yet, but someone might want to post an opinion or a rant, or whatever. Have at it!
Sac found time for a few posts this morning but no thread starter, so here it is. Nothing to contribute yet, but someone might want to post an opinion or a rant, or whatever. Have at it!
Wind blowing out to Left Center 11mph @ Wrigley this afternoon.
No serious weather problems anywhere.
Houston light rain so roof closed tonight.
Wind blowing out to Left Center 11mph @ Wrigley this afternoon.
No serious weather problems anywhere.
Houston light rain so roof closed tonight.
@smalltime21
Tough loss for sure. It's not an easy CF to play but Bradley Jr would have caught it. So that's one game they've lost to let him walk. There will be more.
Kind of square but I'm thinking Perez can be trusted with Red Sox tonight. As a rule of thumb I don't play Overs with two Leftys going.
@smalltime21
Tough loss for sure. It's not an easy CF to play but Bradley Jr would have caught it. So that's one game they've lost to let him walk. There will be more.
Kind of square but I'm thinking Perez can be trusted with Red Sox tonight. As a rule of thumb I don't play Overs with two Leftys going.
Worth looking at: Tigs F5. Mize, the kid from Auburn, can pitch; and that rookie OF for Detroit, Baddoo, has been crushing it. What a name too---Bad doo. Gonna keep an eye on him.
Worth looking at: Tigs F5. Mize, the kid from Auburn, can pitch; and that rookie OF for Detroit, Baddoo, has been crushing it. What a name too---Bad doo. Gonna keep an eye on him.
Last time NYM and DeGrom pitched it was last week in COL. NYM were up 1-0 in the 4th or 5th and COL was a huge dog live, like > +500. COL pulled ahead but fell apart. A loser with potential. A few nights ago MIL in SD was similar but less of a dog. Winner.
How many times do you lay big wood on a game and you're only up by a run or two, and you're on the edge of your seat, dying for the last three innings to be over. And then about a third of the time (+200) the pen blows it, lucky hit, error, bad call by the ump....
I think taking the dog in these situations with a > +300 can be a bargain.
Last time NYM and DeGrom pitched it was last week in COL. NYM were up 1-0 in the 4th or 5th and COL was a huge dog live, like > +500. COL pulled ahead but fell apart. A loser with potential. A few nights ago MIL in SD was similar but less of a dog. Winner.
How many times do you lay big wood on a game and you're only up by a run or two, and you're on the edge of your seat, dying for the last three innings to be over. And then about a third of the time (+200) the pen blows it, lucky hit, error, bad call by the ump....
I think taking the dog in these situations with a > +300 can be a bargain.
Good read guys, thanks. Key, don't mind the crybabies that inevitably show up and blame you for their bad habits, it's a gambling forum, it will never change.
A real sharp years ago gave me some advice about MLB betting. Start betting baseball after the starters have three starts and shut it down after the all star game. Too many unknowns before three starts and too tight lines after the all star game. I'm not a quant and I bet pocket change so my opinion is pretty much worthless, but I like reading comments of bettors that think like Key does. I want analysis, not just picks.
Good read guys, thanks. Key, don't mind the crybabies that inevitably show up and blame you for their bad habits, it's a gambling forum, it will never change.
A real sharp years ago gave me some advice about MLB betting. Start betting baseball after the starters have three starts and shut it down after the all star game. Too many unknowns before three starts and too tight lines after the all star game. I'm not a quant and I bet pocket change so my opinion is pretty much worthless, but I like reading comments of bettors that think like Key does. I want analysis, not just picks.
Every day is opportunity...our job is to find the perceived opp.
As for today with degrom, the nats have a veteran lineup...they may not win but it will be a sweatfest for mutz backers.
If I play it, its nats ml or +1.5.
Every day is opportunity...our job is to find the perceived opp.
As for today with degrom, the nats have a veteran lineup...they may not win but it will be a sweatfest for mutz backers.
If I play it, its nats ml or +1.5.
But also there are gems the first two weeks where the lines are based on last year's numbers - that can yield a few nice winners if you can catch a no name pitchers F5 who did really well in Spring Training. Really well means control, movement, release etc... not ERA or wins.
But also there are gems the first two weeks where the lines are based on last year's numbers - that can yield a few nice winners if you can catch a no name pitchers F5 who did really well in Spring Training. Really well means control, movement, release etc... not ERA or wins.
@barneybeans
"But also there are gems the first two weeks where the lines are based on last year's numbers - that can yield a few nice winners if you can catch a no name pitchers F5 who did really well in Spring Training. Really well means control, movement, release etc... not ERA or wins."
There is a lot of truth here (even if it is barney beans saying it). People like sac and I and a few others that track things during the hot stove season and every game of spring training are well informed opening day. Pitchers that had off-season problems, health, marriage, whatever, and show the effects of it have to be downgraded. Pitchers that took their 2 or 3 innings per start and cruised through spring training can be quite reliable early on.
lordzud: The advantages I noted above were not as readily available back in the good old days. We had no TV, ESPN, CBS, and a slow press and being patient was more necessary than it is now, for the guy that does things as I described above. As for shutting down after the All-Star break, that is not necessary either, but it does take a mind change. The numbers are more consistent, but teams and especially young rosters, become quite aggressive when they are playing for a roster spot or invite to the major league camp next spring. Opportunities change, but do not disappear after the break. Even the playoffs and World Series, with very evenly matched opponents present opportunities.
JMHO
@barneybeans
"But also there are gems the first two weeks where the lines are based on last year's numbers - that can yield a few nice winners if you can catch a no name pitchers F5 who did really well in Spring Training. Really well means control, movement, release etc... not ERA or wins."
There is a lot of truth here (even if it is barney beans saying it). People like sac and I and a few others that track things during the hot stove season and every game of spring training are well informed opening day. Pitchers that had off-season problems, health, marriage, whatever, and show the effects of it have to be downgraded. Pitchers that took their 2 or 3 innings per start and cruised through spring training can be quite reliable early on.
lordzud: The advantages I noted above were not as readily available back in the good old days. We had no TV, ESPN, CBS, and a slow press and being patient was more necessary than it is now, for the guy that does things as I described above. As for shutting down after the All-Star break, that is not necessary either, but it does take a mind change. The numbers are more consistent, but teams and especially young rosters, become quite aggressive when they are playing for a roster spot or invite to the major league camp next spring. Opportunities change, but do not disappear after the break. Even the playoffs and World Series, with very evenly matched opponents present opportunities.
JMHO
@undermysac
About time you showed up. I suppose you went and let honest work interfere with your addiction again. You gotta get over that.
@undermysac
About time you showed up. I suppose you went and let honest work interfere with your addiction again. You gotta get over that.
My security guard(off duty cop) was called in early today to investigate a double murder. Had to watch out today.
My security guard(off duty cop) was called in early today to investigate a double murder. Had to watch out today.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.