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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    MLB Picks for Monday August 17th

    «First Previous 12
    jstaley12
    JClarkson
    Hog_Wild
    SoulCall
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    Search model icon
    Views: 2039
    Posts: 36
    «First Previous 12
     
    jstaley12
    jstaley12
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    Posted: Aug. 18, 2015 - 9:45 AM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by Hog_Wild:

    Howdy jstaley

    Which brings up a question I asked in your Thread yesterday regarding Parlays and RL's that you didn't respond to. Don't know if you didn't see it, or didn't want to answer it for some reason, but if you didn't see it, could you please take a look back and let me know your thoughts?

    Which brings up a question I'd like your opinion on. In cases of 2 teams you feel very strong about, but the juice is too high, which of the 3 options would you recommend. Example today. Cardinals (-223) and Brewers (-180). Would you pay the high juice on the ML, risk the close game on the 1.5RL, or Parlay the 2 on the ML's? I'm sure each situation is different, but what would be your general rule of thumb, as I've seen you Play both ways?

    found your question and pasted it above:

    The 'short answer' is that there is no 'short answer it depends on the line I end up with on each of the games.  A big clear difference between sharps

    and squares is the Sharps set their own betting lines and calculate these lines into percentage chances

    of winning a particular game, squares tend to look up teams trajectory, bullpens, starters, R/L match ups,

    decide which team their ‘gut’ likes and plays the play their gut dictates they play.  Sharps compare their

    final lines to the Lines makers final line and make primarily mathematical plays, but pull off if their gut doesn’t like it.  So, to encapsulate the above, the Sharps make precise mathematical plays, but use their gut to pull off plays, and squares use their guts to make plays.  In the above scenario, let’s say that the

    sharp had the Cardinals at a -249 line, the Brewers at a -150 line.  That would mean the Cards have a

    71.3% chance of winning this game, but the lines makers line says they only have a 69.0% chance of

    winning.  This is a 2.3% edge, and not nearly enough of an edge to put $2,300, or even $230 on to win

    $1,000, or $100.  The Brewers, would be a no play right off the bat (pun intended).  In this case, the sharp

    would opt to his final score and consider the RL on the Cardinals (though I personally prefer to use the

    RL in conjunction with the ML, like $250 to win $200 ML, and add a $100 to $130 RL, all depending on

    the final score I calculated of course).  In rare cases, you will find a Sharp take two heavy juiced teams

    and play them in a parlay.  In this case both teams should have a 6+% edge.  Hope this helps, but to

    go any deeper would require much more space and time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hog_Wild:

    Howdy jstaley

    Which brings up a question I asked in your Thread yesterday regarding Parlays and RL's that you didn't respond to. Don't know if you didn't see it, or didn't want to answer it for some reason, but if you didn't see it, could you please take a look back and let me know your thoughts?

    Which brings up a question I'd like your opinion on. In cases of 2 teams you feel very strong about, but the juice is too high, which of the 3 options would you recommend. Example today. Cardinals (-223) and Brewers (-180). Would you pay the high juice on the ML, risk the close game on the 1.5RL, or Parlay the 2 on the ML's? I'm sure each situation is different, but what would be your general rule of thumb, as I've seen you Play both ways?

    found your question and pasted it above:

    The 'short answer' is that there is no 'short answer it depends on the line I end up with on each of the games.  A big clear difference between sharps

    and squares is the Sharps set their own betting lines and calculate these lines into percentage chances

    of winning a particular game, squares tend to look up teams trajectory, bullpens, starters, R/L match ups,

    decide which team their ‘gut’ likes and plays the play their gut dictates they play.  Sharps compare their

    final lines to the Lines makers final line and make primarily mathematical plays, but pull off if their gut doesn’t like it.  So, to encapsulate the above, the Sharps make precise mathematical plays, but use their gut to pull off plays, and squares use their guts to make plays.  In the above scenario, let’s say that the

    sharp had the Cardinals at a -249 line, the Brewers at a -150 line.  That would mean the Cards have a

    71.3% chance of winning this game, but the lines makers line says they only have a 69.0% chance of

    winning.  This is a 2.3% edge, and not nearly enough of an edge to put $2,300, or even $230 on to win

    $1,000, or $100.  The Brewers, would be a no play right off the bat (pun intended).  In this case, the sharp

    would opt to his final score and consider the RL on the Cardinals (though I personally prefer to use the

    RL in conjunction with the ML, like $250 to win $200 ML, and add a $100 to $130 RL, all depending on

    the final score I calculated of course).  In rare cases, you will find a Sharp take two heavy juiced teams

    and play them in a parlay.  In this case both teams should have a 6+% edge.  Hope this helps, but to

    go any deeper would require much more space and time.

     
    JClarkson
    JClarkson
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    Posted: Aug. 19, 2015 - 6:12 AM ET #27

    Good luck !

    However you choose a service provider who provides assistance in sports handicapping to predict and quantify the results of a sporting match.
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    Good luck !

    However you choose a service provider who provides assistance in sports handicapping to predict and quantify the results of a sporting match.
     
    Hog_Wild
    Hog_Wild
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2015 - 3:47 AM ET #28

    Hey jstaley,

    I'm sorry I didn't thank you for your insightful analysis and answer to my question. It was very informative and enlightening.

    Mostly due to the fact that I am definitely not a sharp, and indeed a square based on your explanation above and was so righteously reminded of again tonight by a certain "sharp wannabe" this evening.

    With that being said, even though I do a reasonable amount of my own Capping, I am nowhere close to being a "Sharp". And truth being told by your definition above, neither are probably upwards of 99% of those that Post on Covers. I just find it humorous how certain people degrade those of us "Squares" as being unworthy of making a legitimate wager and having no business in attempting to do so.

    Congratulations on another successful night and Thanks for your valuable insight, and once again being "Spot On" LOL!!
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    Hey jstaley,

    I'm sorry I didn't thank you for your insightful analysis and answer to my question. It was very informative and enlightening.

    Mostly due to the fact that I am definitely not a sharp, and indeed a square based on your explanation above and was so righteously reminded of again tonight by a certain "sharp wannabe" this evening.

    With that being said, even though I do a reasonable amount of my own Capping, I am nowhere close to being a "Sharp". And truth being told by your definition above, neither are probably upwards of 99% of those that Post on Covers. I just find it humorous how certain people degrade those of us "Squares" as being unworthy of making a legitimate wager and having no business in attempting to do so.

    Congratulations on another successful night and Thanks for your valuable insight, and once again being "Spot On" LOL!!
     
    jstaley12
    jstaley12
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2015 - 3:59 AM ET #29

    Quote Originally Posted by Hog_Wild:

    Hey jstaley,

    I'm sorry I didn't thank you for your insightful analysis and answer to my question. It was very informative and enlightening.

    Mostly due to the fact that I am definitely not a sharp, and indeed a square based on your explanation above and was so righteously reminded of again tonight by a certain "sharp wannabe" this evening.

    With that being said, even though I do a reasonable amount of my own Capping, I am nowhere close to being a "Sharp". And truth being told by your definition above, neither are probably upwards of 99% of those that Post on Covers. I just find it humorous how certain people degrade those of us "Squares" as being unworthy of making a legitimate wager and having no business in attempting to do so.

    Congratulations on another successful night and Thanks for your valuable insight, and once again being "Spot On" LOL!!

    I hope I did not make you feel that way, if so please accept my apology Hog, that was not at all my intention. 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hog_Wild:

    Hey jstaley,

    I'm sorry I didn't thank you for your insightful analysis and answer to my question. It was very informative and enlightening.

    Mostly due to the fact that I am definitely not a sharp, and indeed a square based on your explanation above and was so righteously reminded of again tonight by a certain "sharp wannabe" this evening.

    With that being said, even though I do a reasonable amount of my own Capping, I am nowhere close to being a "Sharp". And truth being told by your definition above, neither are probably upwards of 99% of those that Post on Covers. I just find it humorous how certain people degrade those of us "Squares" as being unworthy of making a legitimate wager and having no business in attempting to do so.

    Congratulations on another successful night and Thanks for your valuable insight, and once again being "Spot On" LOL!!

    I hope I did not make you feel that way, if so please accept my apology Hog, that was not at all my intention. 
     
    SoulCall
    SoulCall
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2015 - 3:59 AM ET #30

    I say to take it as a encouragement to try harder and to research and figure out the angles yourself Hog. Don't expect any good cappers to put up their methods though.

    Myself? I just follow the money, call me whatever you wish
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    I say to take it as a encouragement to try harder and to research and figure out the angles yourself Hog. Don't expect any good cappers to put up their methods though.

    Myself? I just follow the money, call me whatever you wish
     
    Hog_Wild
    Hog_Wild
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2015 - 4:17 AM ET #31

    Quote Originally Posted by jstaley12:


    I hope I did not make you feel that way, if so please accept my apology Hog, that was not at all my intention. 

    By all means NO!!. I was being totally sincere in thanking you for all you do, and for helping out and taking your time in answering questions to ANY and ALL that ask.

    After getting accused of being a "Square" tonight because I won my Angels wager, (nothing to do with you, except I just realized that I forgot to Thank You yesterday for the above where you referenced the differences between sharps and squares), I just came to the conclusion that most of us on this site are "Squares", and that it is nothing to be embarrassed about. I could care less, as long as I win and as I said, I do a fair amount of my own Capping, but I also rely on the Plays of a few on this site, you being one of them, before making my wagers. I told you the other night when I missed your Marlins Play (which I had Played the opposite side in a Parlay) that I don't always tail you, but I never knowingly wager against one of your Plays.

    Again, you in no way made me feel bad in any way, shape or form.

    Thanks again, and Good Night
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    Quote Originally Posted by jstaley12:


    I hope I did not make you feel that way, if so please accept my apology Hog, that was not at all my intention. 

    By all means NO!!. I was being totally sincere in thanking you for all you do, and for helping out and taking your time in answering questions to ANY and ALL that ask.

    After getting accused of being a "Square" tonight because I won my Angels wager, (nothing to do with you, except I just realized that I forgot to Thank You yesterday for the above where you referenced the differences between sharps and squares), I just came to the conclusion that most of us on this site are "Squares", and that it is nothing to be embarrassed about. I could care less, as long as I win and as I said, I do a fair amount of my own Capping, but I also rely on the Plays of a few on this site, you being one of them, before making my wagers. I told you the other night when I missed your Marlins Play (which I had Played the opposite side in a Parlay) that I don't always tail you, but I never knowingly wager against one of your Plays.

    Again, you in no way made me feel bad in any way, shape or form.

    Thanks again, and Good Night
     
    Hog_Wild
    Hog_Wild
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2015 - 4:23 AM ET #32

    Quote Originally Posted by SoulCall:

    I say to take it as a encouragement to try harder and to research and figure out the angles yourself Hog. Don't expect any good cappers to put up their methods though.

    Myself? I just follow the money, call me whatever you wish

    Exactly my thoughts SoulCall. This is getting blown out of proportion due to any earlier Thread tonight (you can easily find it as it had to do with me winning my Angels wager tonight) and had nothing to do with jstaley. I just remembered him pointing out the differences between the 2, and realized I forgot to thank him yesterday for answering a question I had posed
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    Quote Originally Posted by SoulCall:

    I say to take it as a encouragement to try harder and to research and figure out the angles yourself Hog. Don't expect any good cappers to put up their methods though.

    Myself? I just follow the money, call me whatever you wish

    Exactly my thoughts SoulCall. This is getting blown out of proportion due to any earlier Thread tonight (you can easily find it as it had to do with me winning my Angels wager tonight) and had nothing to do with jstaley. I just remembered him pointing out the differences between the 2, and realized I forgot to thank him yesterday for answering a question I had posed
     
    SoulCall
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2015 - 4:24 AM ET #33

    lol Angels
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    lol Angels
     
    SoulCall
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2015 - 4:26 AM ET #34

    wait is this thread from monday? must be some sort of timewarp......

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    wait is this thread from monday? must be some sort of timewarp......

     
    Hog_Wild
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2015 - 4:36 AM ET #35

    Quote Originally Posted by SoulCall:

    wait is this thread from monday? must be some sort of timewarp......


    Yes it is, but it's indirectly related to the Angels winning tonight (look at tonight's Thread titled "Angel Squares and you will be able to put it together)

    Sorry about the confusion
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    Quote Originally Posted by SoulCall:

    wait is this thread from monday? must be some sort of timewarp......


    Yes it is, but it's indirectly related to the Angels winning tonight (look at tonight's Thread titled "Angel Squares and you will be able to put it together)

    Sorry about the confusion
     
     
    SoulCall
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    Posted: Aug. 20, 2015 - 4:41 AM ET #36

    lol no confusion bud it's just late and I'm a bit tipsy

    Just trying to lighten things up a bit.

    I put down live on angels in 3rd inning when i finally got a good price without getting frozen out. I was too preoccupied pre-game to place a bet.
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    lol no confusion bud it's just late and I'm a bit tipsy

    Just trying to lighten things up a bit.

    I put down live on angels in 3rd inning when i finally got a good price without getting frozen out. I was too preoccupied pre-game to place a bet.
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