Some more interesting information:
Twins hitters have knocked Danks around
John Danks has a tall order to fill Tuesday against a team that has always hit him
hard. His career ERA is 6.88 versus the Twins, and the 3-4-5 hitters in
the Minnesota batting order have pummeled him. Joe Mauer, Justin Mourneau and Jason Kubel are a combined 18-for-35 (.514 average) with seven extra-base hits
against Danks over the past two seasons. If he makes it through that
murderers' row, Michael Cuddyer (1.393 OPS vs. Danks) and Brendan Harris (1.315 OPS) still await.
Danks has struggled to finish off Twins hitters:
Hitters vs. Danks with 2 strikes |
|
Current Twins |
Rest of league |
OBP |
.453 |
.261 |
BA |
.352 |
.208 |
SLG |
.463 |
.317 |
The Twins have struggled against Danks' slider (.100 BAA with two
strikes), but they're 9-for-17 against his changeup on two-strike
counts. In fact, Twins hitters have been adept at getting the bat on
his change regardless of the count:
Hitters vs. Danks' changeup |
|
Current Twins |
Rest of league |
Batting average |
.389 |
.234 |
Miss % of swings |
14.9 |
28.7 |
In-play % of swings |
68.1 |
40.8 |
Chase % |
38.1 |
39.3 |
Although Minnesota hitters are as likely as the rest of the
league to chase a Danks change, they miss far less often. This season,
the Twins have been one of the better hitting clubs against changeups
-- particularly Cuddyer, Morneau, Kubel, Delmon Young and Alexi Casilla.
For his part, Danks has caught too much of the strike zone. Of his low
changeups, 44 percent have finished in the zone against current Twins
hitters compared to 38 percent versus the rest of the league. Pitching
on three days' rest for the first time in his career, keep an eye on
Danks' command. If he leaves too many changeups in the zone against
this lineup, he could have a real problem getting hitters out.
Will Blackburn make White Sox chase?
Minnesota has surrendered the fewest walks of any team in the majors, and Nick Blackburn has done his part by issuing just 36 free passes in 187 innings
pitched. Blackburn has pounded the zone in 2008,
locating 67 percent of his pitches for strikes (AL average is 63
percent).
While throwing strikes is a certainly a positive overall,
Blackburn's adherence to the zone appears to hurt him at times. When he
is ahead in the count or has two strikes on the hitter (situations
where he can afford to be less zone-conscious), Blackburn has continued
to stick to the strike zone, with below-average results:
Blackburn: When ahead in count or with 2 strikes |
|
Strike % |
BAA |
Ahead in count |
67 |
.238 |
AL avg. |
61 |
.208 |
Two strikes |
70 |
.232 |
AL avg. |
66 |
.190 |
Blackburn will take on a
White Sox lineup that has hit him well this season. His ERA in 27
innings versus the South Siders this season is 5.67, and he has given
up 37 hits. When ahead in the count, he has thrown strikes to Chicago
hitters 69 percent of the time, with a .276 batting average against.
When Blackburn chooses to throw one out of the strike zone, he has been
adept at generating swings, with a 32 percent chase percentage overall
(AL avg. is 25 percent). The White Sox have gone fishing often against
Blackburn, chasing 31 percent of the time. Given his issues putting
hitters away and the free-swinging nature of the White Sox lineup,
Blackburn might want to waste a few pitches. Alexi Ramirez, AJ Pierzynski, Dewayne Wise and Juan Uribe and each have chased balls out of the zone above the league average rate.