the problem is.... everyone just "guesses" how many games the favorites have covered by the runlines... or how many the dogs have covered the r/l or won outright... right?
all we really have so far, is your opening stat that says that "29.6% of the mlb gms (so far) this season have been 1 run games"...
there's a LOT of things we don't know about those results.
- How many of those 1 run gms were won by favorites? dogs?
- How many were favorites of -200 or higher?
That's when a lot of ppl use the runline, when they want to bet a team but the line is too damn high and in many ppl's eyes, it loses value.
But what are the actual figures from it?? I don't know either...
I will tell you a system I've been tracking since April 12th...
I have not played most of these, but I HAVE tracked the results daily... I want to see some test figures before I throw money at something :P
A Streak system...
"If a team has won 3 gms or more in a row, bet ON them to keep winning..."
OR
"If a team has lost 3 gms or more in a row, bet AGAINST them... (bet on em to lose again!)
"If a W streak tm is playing an L streak tm, it becomes a "double play" as you're betting 1 tm to continue winning and the other to continue losing"
I've tracked it at $100 per gm... and while the highest win & we got to was around 65%... it has settled for the last 10 days or so fluctuating between 60% and 56%.. but it has made money!
Since I started tracking this, I've seen a few facts:
Win streak tms are 70-52 so far...
*The 'Win streak" tm record is 70-52... 57%
the "Losing streak" tm record is 67-52... 56%
overall 137-104... $$$ fig is + $951... since April 12, @ 100/gm
BUT
the biggest problem is betting on Big Favorites of -200 or higher...
I didn't know what to expect when I started tracking it, but there have been close to 3k in losses betting on these big faves!!
My Tweak to the system:
IF you just "pass" on those big favorites (that have fallen within the guidelines of the streak system), you'd save 3k in losses... and be ahead 4k in approx 33 days.
I have kept the records 'as if' all gms within the system have been wagered on to win 100 for the fave, or risk 100 on the dog...
If you don't believe me, go check all the posts for yourself..
I've done this on M**Ja**sp***s.com... is easy to find
So obviously, if u choose to play the r/l instead of the ml, then you're risking less $$..
but my thought is... just say "pass" on the gm..
I have NOT kept records on every big favorite since April 12.
ONLY the games that fall within the 'streak' system...
and these statements above are true!
whatever You play... Best o'Luck!