$$$$ Washington Capitals +120 $$$$Like I said in game 2 when I took penguins as my money play this series had 7 games written all over it. Now we head in to game 6 where the #1 seed needs to stay alive in a must win. Even though the game is in Pittsburgh the momentum of the series has definitely shifted Saturday night with that big win with a goal and an assist from ovechkin. Tonight the caps defenseman orpik returning to the lineup I expect a big game from him a very key player. I see this one being close but caps get it done and at +120 sign me up. Penguins have had very bad luck leading a series 3-1 as they've lost two series that way in the last five playoffs. Tampa bay in 2011 and rangers in 2014. I really believe Capitals will join that list.
I would be cautious here. When I look at these $$$$ plays, I think these picks should looked at as the closest thing to a lock we can find. I know there is no such thing in the betting world but you know what I mean. I think you bring up a good point with Orpik coming back for the Caps tonight, and having Holtby in net makes placing this bet a little easier. However, Pitt has been the best in the NHL for several months now, and they'll be treating tonight as game 7 as well. No chance they want to go on the road to try and beat the presidents trophy winners in their house. Not knocking your play, +120 is good value with Holtby in net. My feeling is that over 5 at -125 is a stronger play in this game. Pitt is going to be coming out firing tonight, the caps better play a disciplined because that PP of the pens will tear them up. Think both of these teams AT LEAST get to 2 goals. Also, Caps down 2-1, 3-1 late in the game is going to allow for a long period of time with an empty net as there is no tomorrow.
@matt2688 I appreciate the feedback but I like the value on them tonite and like the way they play against the ropes. Will discuss game 6 in wash lol
Rooting for a 6-0 caps win!! Both of us get paid! Best of luck.
$$$$ Washington Capitals +120 $$$$Like I said in game 2 when I took penguins as my money play this series had 7 games written all over it. Now we head in to game 6 where the #1 seed needs to stay alive in a must win. Even though the game is in Pittsburgh the momentum of the series has definitely shifted Saturday night with that big win with a goal and an assist from ovechkin. Tonight the caps defenseman orpik returning to the lineup I expect a big game from him a very key player. I see this one being close but caps get it done and at +120 sign me up. Penguins have had very bad luck leading a series 3-1 as they've lost two series that way in the last five playoffs. Tampa bay in 2011 and rangers in 2014. I really believe Capitals will join that list.
I would be cautious here. When I look at these $$$$ plays, I think these picks should looked at as the closest thing to a lock we can find. I know there is no such thing in the betting world but you know what I mean. I think you bring up a good point with Orpik coming back for the Caps tonight, and having Holtby in net makes placing this bet a little easier. However, Pitt has been the best in the NHL for several months now, and they'll be treating tonight as game 7 as well. No chance they want to go on the road to try and beat the presidents trophy winners in their house. Not knocking your play, +120 is good value with Holtby in net. My feeling is that over 5 at -125 is a stronger play in this game. Pitt is going to be coming out firing tonight, the caps better play a disciplined because that PP of the pens will tear them up. Think both of these teams AT LEAST get to 2 goals. Also, Caps down 2-1, 3-1 late in the game is going to allow for a long period of time with an empty net as there is no tomorrow.
@matt2688 I appreciate the feedback but I like the value on them tonite and like the way they play against the ropes. Will discuss game 6 in wash lol
Rooting for a 6-0 caps win!! Both of us get paid! Best of luck.
I have used Spurs as my $$$$ play about 6x and I think i am 4-2 (but coming off a loss in Game 4) I will tail your play today, but that game gave me great caution that I might be wrong about OKC. Or the Spurs.
I know I sound like the boy who cried wolf in regards to the SA/OKC NBA series, but OKC has been quite competitive in every game this season with the exception of that game 1 debacle. In the regular season, OKC played San Antonio very tough on the road with San Antonio winning one game by 6 and the other game went to overtime. The two games in OKC both ended up being double digit wins for OKC. I realize playoff basketball is different, but OKC has the talent to play San Antonio to the wire. Coach Pop could likely be the difference with the adjustments he makes game to game. Good luck to those laying the 8 points today with the Spurs. Given how the NBA playoffs are going, would not shock me to see OKC lead the whole game, only to see Spurs get a late run to tie it up and send it into overtime where they end up winning by 9 and covering the spread LOL. Amazing how that was what happened in *both* games yesterday! Pretty crazy. I actually had a ML bet on Portland before I saw that Steph Curry was playing. Hedged it partly by taking Warriors 2nd half. Still mad Portland lost as I would have been better off seeing Portland hold onto that lead.
I have used Spurs as my $$$$ play about 6x and I think i am 4-2 (but coming off a loss in Game 4) I will tail your play today, but that game gave me great caution that I might be wrong about OKC. Or the Spurs.
I know I sound like the boy who cried wolf in regards to the SA/OKC NBA series, but OKC has been quite competitive in every game this season with the exception of that game 1 debacle. In the regular season, OKC played San Antonio very tough on the road with San Antonio winning one game by 6 and the other game went to overtime. The two games in OKC both ended up being double digit wins for OKC. I realize playoff basketball is different, but OKC has the talent to play San Antonio to the wire. Coach Pop could likely be the difference with the adjustments he makes game to game. Good luck to those laying the 8 points today with the Spurs. Given how the NBA playoffs are going, would not shock me to see OKC lead the whole game, only to see Spurs get a late run to tie it up and send it into overtime where they end up winning by 9 and covering the spread LOL. Amazing how that was what happened in *both* games yesterday! Pretty crazy. I actually had a ML bet on Portland before I saw that Steph Curry was playing. Hedged it partly by taking Warriors 2nd half. Still mad Portland lost as I would have been better off seeing Portland hold onto that lead.
Spurs (8:00PM ET TNT) – Looking to stay hot in $$$$ NBA and we go with what is one of the best spots that we have found in the playoffs
thus far when the San Antonio Spurs host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5 at
the AT&T Center in San Antonio. The only
thing keeping this from being 6 or 7 unit status is the fact we are laying a
premium line against a solid Oklahoma City team but in terms of the spot this
is one of the most ideal spots any team has been in all playoffs and we will
have to take our chances with the number here.
Plain and simple the Spurs are winning this game the question is will
they win by seven or more. San Antonio
has been in this exact same spot over the years and essentially always comes
through with a victory, usually in convincing fashion to regain control of a
series and go on to advance. San Antonio
had every chance to win Game 4 until Kevin Durant completely went off in the
fourth quarter and the final score looks far more lopsided than representative of
how close that game was as the Spurs gave up a bit after they knew they weren’t
going to come back and win. It’s not
that Durant can’t score 41 or go 6 for 6 on big shots in the fourth quarter
tonight but it’s far less likely for him to do it in San Antonio and with a
historically good Spurs defense very disappointed in the way they defended in
Game 4, expect a totally different effort and intensity from them now that this
is a series on their home floor tonight.
Gregg Popovich has always seen the big picture when it comes to playoff
basketball and it’s part of the reason why he has gotten so much out of these
veterans as he and the Spurs aren’t sweating the Game 4 road loss one bit. As far as Pop is concerned this is now a best
two of three where they get two home games and that’s a set of circumstances
the Spurs will succeed in more often than not.
The Spurs have lost just two games in this building all season with one
of them coming to the Thunder earlier in this series in Game 2 so not only do
they have big revenge here from losing Game 4 but they have home court revenge
after the unfamiliar feeling of losing in this arena for just the second time
all season last time out. San Antonio is
going to bounce back with a superior defensive effort tonight and when the
Spurs are defending at their best, which they almost always do on their home
floor in front of their home fans, they allow around the 90 point mark which is
just insane for an NBA team to do on a regular basis. Game 1 in this building was a complete
bloodbath where the Spurs won by 32 points and since they have been on the front
foot in this series since then we just don’t think San Antonio has had or needed
the same sense of urgency in Game 2, Game 3 or Game 4 but it’s an absolute necessity
in Game 5 and Coach Pop is one of the best in history at getting his teams
motivated when it’s all on the line. The
Spurs were also uncharacteristically poor offensively in Game 4 and still
managed 97 points and San Antonio is averaging 104.5 points per game
offensively in this series so their will likely be a market correction to their
offensive performance in their home gym where they are far more comfortable
shooting the basketball. The Spurs have
already proven multiple times in this series they are capable of holding a
Thunder team that averages 110 points per game in the 90’s and we are almost
certain the San Antonio offense will be much better tonight, finishing
somewhere in the 100’s when it’s all said and done. If the Spurs break 100 and hold the Thunder
under 100 there is a very strong chance the final margin will be greater than
7, and with San Antonio all business with their stellar season on the line,
expect a huge effort in a big time revenge spot where the Spurs make a
statement and win this one by double digits.
$$$$ Spurs -7
Sorry for being MIA toward the end of last week was out of town and extremely busy. Have hit the last couple NBA I've contributed here so lets go with NBA again. Heating up on the bases with the Phillies on Sunday and the Yanks last night and you can find all my bases at topflightsportsinfo dot com
Newmi a special thanks for a fantastic run, lets keep cashing tickets!!!
I have a question for you - please add me so i can PM you.
Spurs (8:00PM ET TNT) – Looking to stay hot in $$$$ NBA and we go with what is one of the best spots that we have found in the playoffs
thus far when the San Antonio Spurs host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5 at
the AT&T Center in San Antonio. The only
thing keeping this from being 6 or 7 unit status is the fact we are laying a
premium line against a solid Oklahoma City team but in terms of the spot this
is one of the most ideal spots any team has been in all playoffs and we will
have to take our chances with the number here.
Plain and simple the Spurs are winning this game the question is will
they win by seven or more. San Antonio
has been in this exact same spot over the years and essentially always comes
through with a victory, usually in convincing fashion to regain control of a
series and go on to advance. San Antonio
had every chance to win Game 4 until Kevin Durant completely went off in the
fourth quarter and the final score looks far more lopsided than representative of
how close that game was as the Spurs gave up a bit after they knew they weren’t
going to come back and win. It’s not
that Durant can’t score 41 or go 6 for 6 on big shots in the fourth quarter
tonight but it’s far less likely for him to do it in San Antonio and with a
historically good Spurs defense very disappointed in the way they defended in
Game 4, expect a totally different effort and intensity from them now that this
is a series on their home floor tonight.
Gregg Popovich has always seen the big picture when it comes to playoff
basketball and it’s part of the reason why he has gotten so much out of these
veterans as he and the Spurs aren’t sweating the Game 4 road loss one bit. As far as Pop is concerned this is now a best
two of three where they get two home games and that’s a set of circumstances
the Spurs will succeed in more often than not.
The Spurs have lost just two games in this building all season with one
of them coming to the Thunder earlier in this series in Game 2 so not only do
they have big revenge here from losing Game 4 but they have home court revenge
after the unfamiliar feeling of losing in this arena for just the second time
all season last time out. San Antonio is
going to bounce back with a superior defensive effort tonight and when the
Spurs are defending at their best, which they almost always do on their home
floor in front of their home fans, they allow around the 90 point mark which is
just insane for an NBA team to do on a regular basis. Game 1 in this building was a complete
bloodbath where the Spurs won by 32 points and since they have been on the front
foot in this series since then we just don’t think San Antonio has had or needed
the same sense of urgency in Game 2, Game 3 or Game 4 but it’s an absolute necessity
in Game 5 and Coach Pop is one of the best in history at getting his teams
motivated when it’s all on the line. The
Spurs were also uncharacteristically poor offensively in Game 4 and still
managed 97 points and San Antonio is averaging 104.5 points per game
offensively in this series so their will likely be a market correction to their
offensive performance in their home gym where they are far more comfortable
shooting the basketball. The Spurs have
already proven multiple times in this series they are capable of holding a
Thunder team that averages 110 points per game in the 90’s and we are almost
certain the San Antonio offense will be much better tonight, finishing
somewhere in the 100’s when it’s all said and done. If the Spurs break 100 and hold the Thunder
under 100 there is a very strong chance the final margin will be greater than
7, and with San Antonio all business with their stellar season on the line,
expect a huge effort in a big time revenge spot where the Spurs make a
statement and win this one by double digits.
$$$$ Spurs -7
Sorry for being MIA toward the end of last week was out of town and extremely busy. Have hit the last couple NBA I've contributed here so lets go with NBA again. Heating up on the bases with the Phillies on Sunday and the Yanks last night and you can find all my bases at topflightsportsinfo dot com
Newmi a special thanks for a fantastic run, lets keep cashing tickets!!!
I have a question for you - please add me so i can PM you.
Sorry everyone. Was trying to post my NBA plays over the month of May. Currently at +40 units this month.I have been getting solid insight from a couple old timers who used to work the Atlantic City sportsbooks. I do not get any write ups, only plays. But i will start posting the plays on here so everyone can get a feel.Each play will be giving a strength of play number next to it.5X10X15X25X The higher the number, the more confident the selection. I will track these plays on here to see if the success continues. These guys are $$$$
For years wagering on sports was illegal in New Jersey. Most of the casinos had sports bars but not books. When did that change?
Sorry everyone. Was trying to post my NBA plays over the month of May. Currently at +40 units this month.I have been getting solid insight from a couple old timers who used to work the Atlantic City sportsbooks. I do not get any write ups, only plays. But i will start posting the plays on here so everyone can get a feel.Each play will be giving a strength of play number next to it.5X10X15X25X The higher the number, the more confident the selection. I will track these plays on here to see if the success continues. These guys are $$$$
For years wagering on sports was illegal in New Jersey. Most of the casinos had sports bars but not books. When did that change?
Cubs on a hot streak pitching ice ccold and run support against much better pitchers is great this home stand has impressed every one, Lester giving up less 2 era and cubs easily can score 6 runs. The cubs are dominating the nl with a record of 24 and 6 - 2t0 is a gift
Cubs on a hot streak pitching ice ccold and run support against much better pitchers is great this home stand has impressed every one, Lester giving up less 2 era and cubs easily can score 6 runs. The cubs are dominating the nl with a record of 24 and 6 - 2t0 is a gift
I have to admit, tough to pick between Mets and Rays as play of the day. Both are compelling IMO. In the end I will go with Mets who kind of own the Dodgers lately.
*Warning* - I have been fade material past two weeks with my $$ plays, so bear that in mind.
deGrom has been solid versus Dodger bats in his short MLB career with a WHIP of < 1 and BAA of only .164 in three games. He had a great 2015 season, but there has been a moderate drop off in this season. For 2016 so far in 4 starts, deGrom has WHIP of 1.24 and BAA of .267 which is worse than his first two seasons. He also puts up better numbers at home than away, but that is true for most pitchers I suspect. Still, even his elevated numbers this season are above average. I suspect he may give up 2-3 runs to the Dodgers over 6 innings or so. Ironically, deGrom has yet to record a win at Dodger stadium.
But this is as much a bet against Alex Wood as it is betting on deGrom. Wood has pitched well at home this season, going 2-0 with wins against Arizona and San Diego, pitching 7 innings in each giving up 1 run in each. This is polar opposite form his other road starts where he has been a total gas can. I look deeper into these two home starts though and realize he caught Arizona early in the season when their offense was still slumbering, and then San Diego is ... well ... San Diego! Looking at his numbers vs Mets, it gets a bit ugly. WHIP of 1.45 and BAA of .265. Mets may be in his head a bit, as his last appearance against them was in that very close NLCS playoff game where Wood imploded, giving Mets the easy victory when he came out of the bullpen. Wood is at his best when he is keeping the pitches down and inducing ground balls. Mets though have had some decent HR success off him.
So the way I see it, Mets have won like 6 out of the last 7 vs the Dodgers. They just seem to always find a way to get it done. I am a Dodger fan and just have gotten used to seeing these talented Dodgers teams roll over against their toughest foes. They roll over for the Mets. They roll over for the Giants. They roll over every time it is a crucial game or series. I'm not saying today's game is crucial, but I am just not seeing it with the Dodgers. Not sure I like their manager either.
One potential negative about Mets tonight is there is a rumor that some of their key bullpen guys will not be available tonight? Specifically Bastardo and Familia. They both pitched the past two days straight, so maybe they will be rested.
I have to admit, tough to pick between Mets and Rays as play of the day. Both are compelling IMO. In the end I will go with Mets who kind of own the Dodgers lately.
*Warning* - I have been fade material past two weeks with my $$ plays, so bear that in mind.
deGrom has been solid versus Dodger bats in his short MLB career with a WHIP of < 1 and BAA of only .164 in three games. He had a great 2015 season, but there has been a moderate drop off in this season. For 2016 so far in 4 starts, deGrom has WHIP of 1.24 and BAA of .267 which is worse than his first two seasons. He also puts up better numbers at home than away, but that is true for most pitchers I suspect. Still, even his elevated numbers this season are above average. I suspect he may give up 2-3 runs to the Dodgers over 6 innings or so. Ironically, deGrom has yet to record a win at Dodger stadium.
But this is as much a bet against Alex Wood as it is betting on deGrom. Wood has pitched well at home this season, going 2-0 with wins against Arizona and San Diego, pitching 7 innings in each giving up 1 run in each. This is polar opposite form his other road starts where he has been a total gas can. I look deeper into these two home starts though and realize he caught Arizona early in the season when their offense was still slumbering, and then San Diego is ... well ... San Diego! Looking at his numbers vs Mets, it gets a bit ugly. WHIP of 1.45 and BAA of .265. Mets may be in his head a bit, as his last appearance against them was in that very close NLCS playoff game where Wood imploded, giving Mets the easy victory when he came out of the bullpen. Wood is at his best when he is keeping the pitches down and inducing ground balls. Mets though have had some decent HR success off him.
So the way I see it, Mets have won like 6 out of the last 7 vs the Dodgers. They just seem to always find a way to get it done. I am a Dodger fan and just have gotten used to seeing these talented Dodgers teams roll over against their toughest foes. They roll over for the Mets. They roll over for the Giants. They roll over every time it is a crucial game or series. I'm not saying today's game is crucial, but I am just not seeing it with the Dodgers. Not sure I like their manager either.
One potential negative about Mets tonight is there is a rumor that some of their key bullpen guys will not be available tonight? Specifically Bastardo and Familia. They both pitched the past two days straight, so maybe they will be rested.
I do very much like the Tampa Bay Rays today as well. If the past two weeks repeat today, I will lose the Mets game as that is my $$ play but win Tampa Bay.
I really like Smyly as a pitcher, super solid. I feel the opposite about Miley, I really do not like him nor trust him to pitch well. Some say ignore his season stats due to the fact he has had two quality starts in a row, but I am absolutely not buying it. He pitched a complete game shutout at home April 30 against Kansas City, but KC offense has been MIA the past few weeks. He then went 6 innings @ Houston and gave up 2 runs which is a bit more impressive since Astro bats seem to have woken up.
Still, the past few years this guy has been so inconsistent start to start, with a *lot* more starts being non-quality vs quality. If this guy somehow pitches a gem versus Tampa Bay, then I will be eating crow I guess.
By the way, feel sorry for that kid pitching for the As. Red Sox just smashed him today.
I do very much like the Tampa Bay Rays today as well. If the past two weeks repeat today, I will lose the Mets game as that is my $$ play but win Tampa Bay.
I really like Smyly as a pitcher, super solid. I feel the opposite about Miley, I really do not like him nor trust him to pitch well. Some say ignore his season stats due to the fact he has had two quality starts in a row, but I am absolutely not buying it. He pitched a complete game shutout at home April 30 against Kansas City, but KC offense has been MIA the past few weeks. He then went 6 innings @ Houston and gave up 2 runs which is a bit more impressive since Astro bats seem to have woken up.
Still, the past few years this guy has been so inconsistent start to start, with a *lot* more starts being non-quality vs quality. If this guy somehow pitches a gem versus Tampa Bay, then I will be eating crow I guess.
By the way, feel sorry for that kid pitching for the As. Red Sox just smashed him today.
What is up with the Mets/Dodger line? My book currently has it at Mets+107. Opened at -120.
A lot of folks have asked the same question. Serious reverse line movement, should have mentioned that as a negative on my write up but forgot.
Perhaps part of it is due to what I mentioned above where Mets may be resting two key parts of their bullpen tonight due to them already pitching two straight days in a row.
Or, some may be looking at deGrom's last start on the road vs San Diego or looking at his road splits in general this year and comparing them to Woods home starts this season.
What is up with the Mets/Dodger line? My book currently has it at Mets+107. Opened at -120.
A lot of folks have asked the same question. Serious reverse line movement, should have mentioned that as a negative on my write up but forgot.
Perhaps part of it is due to what I mentioned above where Mets may be resting two key parts of their bullpen tonight due to them already pitching two straight days in a row.
Or, some may be looking at deGrom's last start on the road vs San Diego or looking at his road splits in general this year and comparing them to Woods home starts this season.
My feeling is that over 5 at -125 is a stronger play in this game. Pitt is going to be coming out firing tonight, the caps better play a disciplined because that PP of the pens will tear them up. Think both of these teams AT LEAST get to 2 goals. Also, Caps down 2-1, 3-1 late in the game is going to allow for a long period of time with an empty net as there is no tomorrow.
Nice call with the over. Even though I swore off NHL the rest of the playoffs, I tailed you on this one. I was admittedly nervous after 1st period, but wow, refs were calling a *lot* of penalties this game! I think all 6 goals in regulation were scored on power play. Seems like the entire 3rd period had Capitals on a power play LOL. Weird game.
My feeling is that over 5 at -125 is a stronger play in this game. Pitt is going to be coming out firing tonight, the caps better play a disciplined because that PP of the pens will tear them up. Think both of these teams AT LEAST get to 2 goals. Also, Caps down 2-1, 3-1 late in the game is going to allow for a long period of time with an empty net as there is no tomorrow.
Nice call with the over. Even though I swore off NHL the rest of the playoffs, I tailed you on this one. I was admittedly nervous after 1st period, but wow, refs were calling a *lot* of penalties this game! I think all 6 goals in regulation were scored on power play. Seems like the entire 3rd period had Capitals on a power play LOL. Weird game.
My feeling is that over 5 at -125 is a stronger play in this game. Pitt is going to be coming out firing tonight, the caps better play a disciplined because that PP of the pens will tear them up. Think both of these teams AT LEAST get to 2 goals. Also, Caps down 2-1, 3-1 late in the game is going to allow for a long period of time with an empty net as there is no tomorrow.
Nice call with the over. Even though I swore off NHL the rest of the playoffs, I tailed you on this one. I was admittedly nervous after 1st period, but wow, refs were calling a *lot* of penalties this game! I think all 6 goals in regulation were scored on power play. Seems like the entire 3rd period had Capitals on a power play LOL. Weird game.
Same theory for stars/blues tomorrow. Love the over 5 for similar reasoning. See that juice going up so grab the -130 now if you can.
My feeling is that over 5 at -125 is a stronger play in this game. Pitt is going to be coming out firing tonight, the caps better play a disciplined because that PP of the pens will tear them up. Think both of these teams AT LEAST get to 2 goals. Also, Caps down 2-1, 3-1 late in the game is going to allow for a long period of time with an empty net as there is no tomorrow.
Nice call with the over. Even though I swore off NHL the rest of the playoffs, I tailed you on this one. I was admittedly nervous after 1st period, but wow, refs were calling a *lot* of penalties this game! I think all 6 goals in regulation were scored on power play. Seems like the entire 3rd period had Capitals on a power play LOL. Weird game.
Same theory for stars/blues tomorrow. Love the over 5 for similar reasoning. See that juice going up so grab the -130 now if you can.
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