My play today is the Baltimore Orioles at -115
This is another one of those puzzling lines that caught me off guard. However, after looking at the starting pitchers and where the game is being played, it makes more sense. Cole Irvin is considered by most to be the Orioles weakest starting pitcher and at 1-3 with a 4.78 ERA, at first glance he appears to be. Throw in the fact that Baltimore recently got to AZ from the East Coast and the game will be a 9:40 Eastern Time start. So, then why do I still love the O's in this spot?
1) Baltimore is a great road team. In fact, they have a better road record (41-24) than AZ does at home (35-32).
2) MLB players are in the prime of their lives, couldn't be in better shape, and jet lag doesn't affect them like the normal person. Not to mention, they're not sitting in a middle seat on some crappy Southwest flight. They're on a cushy private jet and being well taken care of. So throw that angle out the window for me. Plus, they had yesterday off, giving them more time to rest and adjust.
3) Baltimore isn't just a good road team, they're one of the best teams in baseball and have been all season. They have a run differential of +96. AZ is a mediocre team and I believe overrated. They have a negative run differential at -21.
4) Baltimore ranks 11th in MLB against right handed pitching. They sport a .254 AVG, .317 OBP, .421 SLG, and a .738 OPS.
5) Arizona ranks 21st in MLB against left handed pitching. They're at a .246 AVG, .313 OBP, .393 SLG, and a .706 OPS.
6) Cole Irvin has been good in August. While he hasn't factored into a decision, he's sporting a 2.25 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and opponents are hitting just .194 against him.
7) Davies has been on the IL for a good part of the season and has only pitched one game in August (it was a decent start). However, let's look at his last 7 starts to get an idea on how he's been in general. He's 0-3 with a 8.13 ERA, a 1.6 WHIP, and opponents are hitting .287 against him. He's been mostly terrible with 1 or 2 okay starts mixed in.
8) Baltimore's Bullpen is elite. They rank 6th in MLB with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.
9) Arizona's Bullpen is garbage. They rank 25th with a 4.69 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.
10) Baltimore is playing good ball lately. They're 7-3 in their last 10. They've scored 63 runs in those games (an avg of 6.3 per game)
11) Arizona is 6-4 in their last 10, but trending down by losing their last 3 in a row. They've scored 48 runs (an avg of 4.8 runs per game...not bad, but not 6.3)
12) Arizona does not play well against good teams. Their record against clubs that are >500 is 31-44.
13) Baltimore's record against teams that are >500 is 42-31.
14) Both teams have plenty to play for. Baltimore is battling TB for the AL East crown, while AZ is fighting for that final NL wildcard spot. I think we'll see both managers playing this like it's a must win. Both pitchers will likely have short leashes and that's great news for Baltimore.
Given the above, I'll take the pretty big advantage and roll with the Baltimore Orioles at -115 for 10 units.
Hope you all have a great Friday and a winning day!
Cheers,
Kaufee
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