Vance Worley ranks #8 in the MLB against right-handed hitters. The Jays are loaded with righties and tonight 6/9 in their line-up will be swinging from that side of the plate. The three lefties in the lineup are Colby Rasmus, Kelly Johnson, and David Cooper. Not exactly the most threatening bunch of lefties. All-in-all, Worley is my 40th ranked SP. He has never seen the Blue Jays before and he has an ERA under 1.0 in 4 inter-league appearances. There's no reason to think the Jay's slump will turn around with this line-up against this pitcher. Phillies are starting to warm up offensively (ranked #6 in total offense over the last 7 games). They also have a significant advantage in bullpen (PHI #14 ; TOR #29). Even though Hutchinson has pitched well lately, I see enough advantages on paper to back the surging Phillies and fade the falling Blue Jays. We simply have two teams moving in opposite directions. According to my model the Phillies should be -112. At +115 we have sold value on the team that's moving up.
Vance Worley ranks #8 in the MLB against right-handed hitters. The Jays are loaded with righties and tonight 6/9 in their line-up will be swinging from that side of the plate. The three lefties in the lineup are Colby Rasmus, Kelly Johnson, and David Cooper. Not exactly the most threatening bunch of lefties. All-in-all, Worley is my 40th ranked SP. He has never seen the Blue Jays before and he has an ERA under 1.0 in 4 inter-league appearances. There's no reason to think the Jay's slump will turn around with this line-up against this pitcher. Phillies are starting to warm up offensively (ranked #6 in total offense over the last 7 games). They also have a significant advantage in bullpen (PHI #14 ; TOR #29). Even though Hutchinson has pitched well lately, I see enough advantages on paper to back the surging Phillies and fade the falling Blue Jays. We simply have two teams moving in opposite directions. According to my model the Phillies should be -112. At +115 we have sold value on the team that's moving up.
For now yeah, nothing else really jumps out tonight. Liking a couple unders but they're borderline. I think my best chance of profiting tonight is to keep the card small and play my best spot. This is it.
For now yeah, nothing else really jumps out tonight. Liking a couple unders but they're borderline. I think my best chance of profiting tonight is to keep the card small and play my best spot. This is it.
I took the Under for Col/Det as the ump is 5-9 O/U, I will get crushed on that for sure
Umpire's have roughly ~5% influence on the outcome of a MLB game. It's better to not factor them into your decision at all. I only look at umpires in the post season.
I took the Under for Col/Det as the ump is 5-9 O/U, I will get crushed on that for sure
Umpire's have roughly ~5% influence on the outcome of a MLB game. It's better to not factor them into your decision at all. I only look at umpires in the post season.
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