(51-47) -0.07 units in 12 days

Early game tomorrow at 10:35 am.  Baltimore at Atlanta.  T. Wells vs B. Elder. 

Been having lots of big storms.  Electricity went out right as I finished a long write up on the game.  Didn't have it saved, of course, and I don't have a battery backup right now on this computer.  Too late to write it all up again so you are getting the Cliff notes version.

Wells is an extreme fly ball pitcher.  Elder is an extreme ground ball pitcher. 

Wells has been very lucky to only have given up 7 homers this year as he gave up 3 last start vs Miami. 

Elder has excellent numbers and is pitching at a high level.  Wells has been up/down.  No pun intended.

Atlanta has the better BP.  The Orioles are the better defensive fielding team.  The Braves have struck out as a team 50 more times than the O's.

The overnight line is Atlanta -165 and seems about right.

In my opinion, Atlanta is the play.  Not interested in an O/U here.

To be clear, this is not a play for me.  Just my opinion on the game.

Best of luck.

@AdVictoriam

 Thanks for sharing your opinion on the Braves,

good luck with your official play or plays on Sunday, assuming that you find at least 1 game that you like.

@AdVictoriam

Ok, seriously, why can't you keep accurate results?  It's not hard - put the info in a basic spreadsheet.  Yesterday you claimed a loss of just over 1 unit, but in reality, it was more than a 3 unit loss.  Maybe it would be easier to do away with the whole "units won and lost" debacle and just keep a running total of actual dollar amounts.  You are making actual bets, right?

@bluecompass

 Feel free to post your numbers.

I'm happy to compare and correct at any time.

Just remember that I always wager to win the units listed.

You did have a problem with that the last time.

Actually, I did make a small error in my units that I will correct here.

I won +12.22 units on 3 plays, lost -14.55 units on 2 plays.  That leaves a -2.33 units on the day.

Cumulative units now corrected at -1.07.

You gentlemen were close when you said I lost -3 units.  But not exact.

You know, I think that spreadsheet idea is a great idea.

I'm not an Excel guy though so if one of you guys could help out with that it would be great!

I do all of my work on a legal pad old school so there will be minor errors now and then. 

But I greatly appreciate you guys and your sharp eyes!

Oh, and bluecompass, it's easy to calculate my money actually spent as 1 unit = $100.  Since you are a highly intelligent spreadsheet guy, I'm sure you can figure out that I am  now down -$107 for my posted record.

Glad to help you out on that fine point!

Tigers +3 units

Cubs 1st 5 -3.75 units

Cubs RL +3 units

Twins -10.9 units

Dodgers +3units

-14.65 units + 9 units = -5.65 units

I’ve been paying attention to this thread since you claimed to play that game over night and said it was a lean the next day. Stop being a scam. People here just want honestly 

@OO7CRUSHER

 I do love subtle, dry humor.

Well done, Sir!

Best of luck on your action today!

You specifically said you play to make the amount of units. Which means you risk less on dogs and add juice on favorites. (Which is a terrible idea btw)

Either way, I’m not here to be a book keeper. Just be honest because you haven’t been  

@2fade

 Appreciate your input.

However.

When you make an accusation without documented proof, you are by definition a troll and hater.

Implying that I have been dishonest is to say that I have been intentionally deceptive.  That is categorically false.

Making a mistake accidentally is not being intentionally deceptive and dishonest.

Again, I am happy to correct any and all mistakes in my record.  Because that is what they are.  Genuine mistakes with no dishonesty involved at all.

I have been very transparent about this from day 1.

Did some more deep digging on the two starters for today and their histories on ground balls/fly balls.

Wells GB/FB ratio in 2021 was 32/114.  2022 it was 114/198.  2023 so far 34/62.  Definitely an extreme fly ball pitcher.

2021 he pitched 57IPs with 9HRs, 2022 he pitched 103.2IPs with 16HRs.  2023 so far 35IP with 7HRs.

That is actually on pace to be his highest home run totals of his career if it stays at that pace.

Meanwhile, Mr. Elder is the opposite.

For 2022 his rate of GB/FB is 77/77.  2023 so far it's 57/42.  This year he has pitched 54IPs and given up 4HRs.  Pretty low rate.

Atlanta has hit the 2nd most HRs this year, second to the Devil Rays.  So they will hit the long ball pretty regularly.

Not good for Mr. Wells today.

Don’t fade my Red Sox. They are just competent enough to go on a 8 game winning streak…. Oh wait. They did go on a 8 game winning streak…….

Good luck on the plays today, keep up the good work. 

@AdVictoriam

 Don't listen to these guys above, they don't have half the talent, just a bunch of rats amongst Lions, cheers bud. 

@ElonTrout2

 Yes, good call. They haven't lost since you posted that. Do they make it 9?

The more I dig into the early game, it has become apparent that Mr. Wells has been a bit lucky to have the numbers that he has on the season.

He has a FIP over 5, which is bad and combined with his BABIP of .157, I would expect significant regression from his current ERA/WHIP of 3.34/0.77 back towards his numbers of last year at 4.25/1.14.

Everything points to a play on the Braves.

The line has moved back from the -165 Braves last night to a -159 this morning. 

There is good value there but I'm looking at another area to find more value.

The TT OVER 4.5 -127.  Should the Braves win this game, I don't see it being a 2-1 or 4-2 game.  It should go over the TT comfortably.  At -127, that is more value compared to the -159 ML number.

When I went to put in the wager, the TT moved up to -130 and the ML went up to -160.  Money coming in on the Braves now near first pitch.

Official Plays.

Atlanta Braves TT OVER 4.5 -130 for 3 units.

Atlanta Braves ML -160 for 2 units.

Toronto at Pittsburgh.  Kikuchi vs Contreras.

The Pirates are in the depths of a 6 game losing streak where they have only scored 8 runs total.  This is a serious slide.

Remember, in baseball, trends continue until you have definitive proof they are broken.  This trend is hard as a rock right now.

If there is a possible silver lining for the Pirates, it is the starting pitcher for the Blue Jays today.

Mr. Kikuchi is once again having trouble keeping the ball in the park.

He gave up 23 homers in 100.2 innings in 2022 (a 2.06 HR/9), he's already been taken deep eight times in 31.1 innings to begin 2023 (a 2.30 HR/9).

Only some good fortune has kept his 4.02 ERA from being closer to his 5.44 FIP.

Lelfties are hitting him at a .300 pace while righties are at .267.

His home/away splits are stunning.  Home he is 0.77/0.86 ERA/WHIP while away his split is 5.95/1.47. 

Mr. Contreras was beat up a bit by the Devil Rays last start and has a 4.09 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 27:16 K:BB through his first six starts this season.

He has a 2.50/1.17 ERA/WHIP over his last 3 starts though so he has had improvement as the season has progressed.

Lefties hitting .283 with righties at .235.

Home/away splits are 4.50/1.50 at home and 3.71/1.35 on the road.

A big plus is he has only given up 1HR on the year.

But 16 walks in 33 innings is a concern.  Not giving up the homers takes a bit of the sting out of these.  15ERs in those 33IPs.

The line on the game is Toronto -139 on the ML.

Huge juice on the Pirates OVER 3.5 -140.  Books are thinking there is a good chance the Pirates hit Kikuchi today.

But the full game UNDER 9 is juiced at -120. 

My strong lean in this game would have to be with the streak and the Toronto Blue Jays.  Good value on the -139 even with Kikuchi

As bad as the Pirates have been hitting, they will probably make him look sharp today.

Lean only for now, not an official play.

Boston at Philadelphia.  Houck vs Walker.

Mr. Houck has been having a rough go lately.  His last 2 starts he has a 7.36/1.64 ERA/WHIP and his last 3 starts a 6.00/1.39.

His line on the season is 32IP 31H 20R 19ER 4HR 13BB 29K with a 5.34/1.38 ERA/WHIP.

Lefties are hitting at .277 and righties .232.  He pitches slightly better on the road than at home.

With a FIP of 3.04 and a BABIP of .293, he has not been lucky and he doesn't get away with many mistakes.

Mr. Walker has also not had a great run lately.  His last 3 he went 9.88/1.83 ERA/WHIP.

His last 2 starts have been terrible with him going 15.95/2.45 ERA/WHIP and giving up 5 homers in those 2 games.

At home he is worse than away with a 7.27/1.73 ERA/WHIP.  Away is 6.75/1.55.

Just a train wreck.

Although the Phillies are at -123 in this game, I see the side as a complete coin flip.  The Phillies BP has been very bad lately and Boston can hit as good as them.

The value here is in the OVER 9.5 -115 and the two TT OVERS.

Boston TT OVER 4.5 -130 and Philly TT OVER 4.5 -120.

No official play for now, only leans.

@2fade

 Ah.  I can see the mistakes immediately.  From your post.

Tigers +3 units

Cubs 1st 5 -3.75 units

Cubs RL +3 units

Twins -10.9 units

Dodgers +3units

-14.65 units + 9 units = -5.65 units

The Detroit Tigers were a +164 dog.  I played them for 3 units, therefore, when they win, I make +4.92 units.

The Chicago Cubs RL was +110.  I played them for 3 units.  When I win, I get +3.30 units back.

The Minnesota Twins ML was -108.  I played them for 10 units.  When I lose I lose -10.80 units.

Please recalculate with the correct numbers and I'm sure you will see that my numbers are correct.

It seems that many have not understood the concept of how units are wagered/calculated.

Hoping this helps clear this up.

@AdVictoriam

 Honestlty I look at your data and if that is accurate,thats all I care about.Most of the time I already know if it is accurate or not.

Im not wasting time playing record police.I get it,to some people that is important,which I respect.BUT I think the info you provide is great!

You keep making mistakes, and they always seem to be in your favor.  The documented proof of these mistakes is in your own threads, dumbass.  So when someone accuses you of fudging the numbers, er, "making a mistake for the 20th time", you can go back to your own posts for the proof.  I'm going to do this one last time, because I'm not your freaking bookkeeper, but because I do so enjoy proving you to be a shyster, er, "frequent mistake maker"....

Yesterday you had 5 plays.  And you won 3 of them.  Here are the winners:

DET +164 3 units (Risking 3 to win $4.92) +4.92

CHC RL -1.5 +110 3 units (Risking 3 to win 3.3) +3.3

LAD +110 3 units (Risking 3 to win 3.3) +3.3

So these 3 wins got you +11.52

And here are your 2 losing plays:

CHC F5 -0.5 -125 3 units (Risking 3.75 to win 3) -3.75

MIN -109 10 units (Risking 10.9 to win 10) -10.9

So these 2 losses got you -14.65

So 11.52 units won minus 14.65 units lost equals a 3.13 unit loss yesterday.

And BTW, you still haven't answered the 1 simple question; Are you actually making these wagers you post about?  Because that would be really, really, really lame if you weren't putting your money where your mouth is.

Colorado Rockies at the METS.  Feltner vs Lucchesi.

Mr. Feltner is pitching very well lately with a 3 game run of 1.06/1.06 ERA/WHIP.

Lefties are hitting .279 and righties .218.

Home/Away splits are pretty close.

Last year he was 126/177 FG/GB numbers.  He gave up 16 HRs in 97.1IPs  That is 1HR every 6IP.  Not good.

This year he is giving up 0.6HRs per 9 so a huge improvement.

Still has a 39/48 FB/GB number so he could regress over the season.  Make no mistake, he is a fly ball pitcher.

Mr. Lucchesi was pulled after 4IPs in his last start vs Detroit so he could pitch on 3 days rest today. 

He is 6.75/1.29 in his last 2 starts and 3.36/1.10 in his last 3 starts.

Lefties .232 and righties .235.  Home 5.06/1.31 ERA/WHIP while away is 3.27/1.00.

Lucchesi has posted a 7.58 ERA in 48.2 career innings.  Probably going back to the minors after this start.

The line for the game is METS -186 and the Rockies +166.

In my opinion, the METS continue to be over valued.  Sitting at 17-17 right where I thought they would be 2 weeks ago when they were 6-7 games over .500.

Strong lean toward the Rockies at the +166 today as a value play.

The Rockies TT OVER 3.5 at -110 seems to be great value as well.

Leans only for now, not official plays.

@AdVictoriam

 You are as senile as Joe Biden ... lol, This thread is hilarious.   Your information is great, but 2 things can be true.   The people questioning you are also correct.  lol.

You literally said in this thread ...

"Just remember that I always wager to win the units listed."

then you say ...

"The Detroit Tigers were a +164 dog.  I played them for 3 units, therefore, when they win, I make +4.92 units."

How is that possible? Now I suppose, you will come back and explain it's only for fav's, etc..   Or whatever explanation you want to backtrack with.  But when you try and type like you are a philosopher professor, it just makes normal intelligent people just laugh at all this comedy. 

This thread and your downfall from bragging about no one can talk to you because you won 50 units in 1 week to then losing it all in 3 days is just pure gold.   

So thank you for the great entertainment!  And the good information as well! .  

Am I the only one that is laughing hysterically at this???   And you guys defending him, and telling him not to worry about the posters who are merely questioning his obviously incorrect units, literally every day, are mostly serious and good cappers. Why put down people who are correct? And defend a senile senior citizen who can't do 4th-grade math? 

Lol exactly. He says my bets are to win what the units listed are and then he goes and claims the extra money won on Detroit. This is another player who definitely doesn’t bet. Another fraud. 

He also attacks people who point out his errors and then comes back and says you’re right I just made a mistake. He makes an error every time he calculates. 

@bluecompass

 This is actually almost correct.  I commend you for your fine work.

The only mistake I see there is that the Minnesota Twins were -108 and not -109.

Making that slight correction it takes the number to -3.03 units for yesterday.

That brings the cumulative to -1.77 units.

Great work on your part.  I am in your debt!

So now we have locked in a (51-47) and -1.77 units for the cumulative number.

Appreciate your hard work bro!

@TheBoyWonder

 I have explained many times that when I wager, I wager favorites to win the units and dogs to win the + units.

In that one spot you read, it obviously was not clear so I apologize.

So glad you are enjoying the thread and thanks for coming by!