ASTROS (+113) F5
METS (+105) F5
Nationals F5 -114, FG -108, (Gonzalez / Leake)
The focus may be on Strasburg but that boy pushes the risk-reward factor to the limit with high odds and 6 innings of work. Bettors always have to hope the Nats score early and often and the bullpen hangs on for the win. Yesterday was a perfect example. His offense could not score early and lost the big juice F5, although they did go on to win the game. With so much focus on Strasburg and now the emergence of Harper, Gio Gonzalez is the guy flying under the radar, although he may prove to be the steal of the winter trades. According to my rankings he is far superior to Mike Leake and the advantage is compounded by the offensive advantage of Reds lineup vs lefty as opposed to Nationals versus righty. The price is more than fair and the Nats were just a little more offensive I would be tempted to lay the run line, but not yet, and more on that when I address the questions from kvs23.
See here's my problem with you Key,,,, You're thoughts on some of these are so in line with my own, and your writeups better than any I would put out there , that all I'm left with is nodding my head in agreement while typing DITTO
I have this one with about 35 cents of line value (current available line vs. mine)
GL
Nationals F5 -114, FG -108, (Gonzalez / Leake)
The focus may be on Strasburg but that boy pushes the risk-reward factor to the limit with high odds and 6 innings of work. Bettors always have to hope the Nats score early and often and the bullpen hangs on for the win. Yesterday was a perfect example. His offense could not score early and lost the big juice F5, although they did go on to win the game. With so much focus on Strasburg and now the emergence of Harper, Gio Gonzalez is the guy flying under the radar, although he may prove to be the steal of the winter trades. According to my rankings he is far superior to Mike Leake and the advantage is compounded by the offensive advantage of Reds lineup vs lefty as opposed to Nationals versus righty. The price is more than fair and the Nats were just a little more offensive I would be tempted to lay the run line, but not yet, and more on that when I address the questions from kvs23.
See here's my problem with you Key,,,, You're thoughts on some of these are so in line with my own, and your writeups better than any I would put out there , that all I'm left with is nodding my head in agreement while typing DITTO
I have this one with about 35 cents of line value (current available line vs. mine)
GL
Angels F5 +138, FG +143, (Wilson / Darvish)
Rangers deserve all the respect they garner and may run away with the A.L. West, but it is a little too early to count out the Angels. When applying reality to hot and cold starts we have to remember they don’t last forever and a handicapper has be ahead of the curve, never behind it. So, another public darling this year is Darvish. Now, I ain’t saying the boy ain’t good, he obviously is, but is still unproven in many ways. What I have seen and rated so far is 4 of 6 performances better than my MLB starting pitcher average of 68, so he has climbed to a rating of 69.6, but Wilson comes to us with a proven track record and a rating of 77, all of which he earned, no hype. If I raised Wilson’s average to 80.1 based on the average of his first six starts he would rank an 80.3 for today’s game. He also has not turned in one single performance below his pre season ranking of 72 or the MLB average of 68, while Darvish has done that twice. I gotta ride the hot horse here at a very nice price based on the public’s opinion of the invincibility of the Rangers.
DITTO
On this one big,,,
I do vary my betting amounts about 5% of the time,,, its possible that it is a flawed way to gamble, but I've always done it, and I have to admit it gives me an occasional bump in adrenaline, which I need once or twice a month doing this day in and day out... Honestly, I would bet (standard unit ) that these rare big plays come out real close to 52/48 in the long run anyway.
Angels F5 +138, FG +143, (Wilson / Darvish)
Rangers deserve all the respect they garner and may run away with the A.L. West, but it is a little too early to count out the Angels. When applying reality to hot and cold starts we have to remember they don’t last forever and a handicapper has be ahead of the curve, never behind it. So, another public darling this year is Darvish. Now, I ain’t saying the boy ain’t good, he obviously is, but is still unproven in many ways. What I have seen and rated so far is 4 of 6 performances better than my MLB starting pitcher average of 68, so he has climbed to a rating of 69.6, but Wilson comes to us with a proven track record and a rating of 77, all of which he earned, no hype. If I raised Wilson’s average to 80.1 based on the average of his first six starts he would rank an 80.3 for today’s game. He also has not turned in one single performance below his pre season ranking of 72 or the MLB average of 68, while Darvish has done that twice. I gotta ride the hot horse here at a very nice price based on the public’s opinion of the invincibility of the Rangers.
DITTO
On this one big,,,
I do vary my betting amounts about 5% of the time,,, its possible that it is a flawed way to gamble, but I've always done it, and I have to admit it gives me an occasional bump in adrenaline, which I need once or twice a month doing this day in and day out... Honestly, I would bet (standard unit ) that these rare big plays come out real close to 52/48 in the long run anyway.
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