Wrong team is favored.

Akron +3 vs Bowling Green: Why the Zips Are the Play Tuesday Night

Akron Zips at Bowling Green Falcons
Tuesday, November 18, 7:00 PM ET
Doyt Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH
Line: Bowling Green -3 | Total: 47

Both teams are out of bowl contention and playing for pride in this Tuesday night MAC matchup. Akron sits at 4-7 overall and 3-4 in conference play, while Bowling Green is 3-7 overall and just 1-5 in the MAC. The line opened at Bowling Green at 4.5 but has moved down to 3, and the betting public has taken notice. 72% of spread bets are coming in on Akron.

The Falcons are in complete disarray on offense right now. They've lost four straight games and have cycled through four different quarterbacks during this stretch. Even more concerning, both starting quarterbacks Drew Pine and Lucas Anderson are listed as questionable for Tuesday's game. These two have taken 90 to 95% of the snaps all season, so if either or both are out, we could see a third string QB under center.

The numbers tell the story: Bowling Green has scored just 37 total points in their last three home games combined. That's not a typo. 37 points across three games at Doyt Perry Stadium. They're averaging 12.8 points per game over their last four outings. Even when their quarterbacks have been healthy, they've struggled badly. Both Pine and Anderson have negative touchdown to interception ratios and are averaging under 6 yards per pass attempt.

This is a team that started 3-3 after upsetting Toledo on October 11, but they've completely fallen apart since then. They've lost six of their last seven games straight up and failed to cover in five of their last six.

Akron's Offensive Explosion

Meanwhile, Akron is trending in the opposite direction. After starting 0-3, the Zips have gone 4-4 in their last eight games and just put together their most explosive offensive performance of the season. In last week's overtime loss to Kent State, quarterback Ben Finley threw for 424 yards and three touchdowns. For context, Finley has thrown 18 touchdowns against 8 interceptions this season with 2,299 passing yards.

Wide receiver Marcel Williams is coming off a monster game with 206 receiving yards and two touchdowns against Kent State. He leads the team with 567 receiving yards on the season. But it's not just the passing game. Running back Jordan Gant leads the entire MAC in rushing with 946 yards and 6 touchdowns. He gives Akron a balanced attack that Bowling Green simply can't match right now.

Akron's offense is the MAC's third best passing attack, and they're facing a Bowling Green defense that has allowed the opposition to do whatever they want lately. The Zips have multiple weapons: Marcel Williams on the outside, Jordan Gant controlling the ground game, and receivers like Israel Polk (7 receiving TDs) and Kyan Mason (touchdown in 3 of last 4 games) providing depth.

On the other side, Bowling Green's offense is completely one dimensional right now with quarterback uncertainty. They can't sustain drives, they can't protect the football, and they're not scoring points. Even at home, they're averaging barely over 12 points in their losses.

The sharp money is on Akron. The Zips don't even need to win this game; they just need to keep it within a field goal. Given Bowling Green's offensive struggles and quarterback situation, I think Akron has a real chance to win this game outright on the road.

Finley is playing confident football right now, throwing the ball all over the yard. Gant provides a steady rushing attack. And they're going up against a Falcons team that scored 12, 13, 12, and 21 points in their last four games.

The history doesn't concern me. Bowling Green leads the all time series 21-10 and has won the last three meetings. But this year's BGSU team is nothing like previous versions. They're broken on offense and might not even have their starting quarterbacks available.

Give me Akron +3. I think they are better and clicking on all cylinders and going to win outright.

Good luck

Love it when people bring thought to the board instead of just saying their pick. What is the purpose of just blurting out a team name? 

@JimmyGape

 depends on the weather. what is the westher forecast  for the game

I told you the wrong team was favored.  

Jumped on the ML close to kickoff. Good thing BG didn’t have a QB 

Yup thats one of many reasons the wrong team was favored.  

 Posted by JimmyGape  Gi Give me Akron +3. I think they are better and clicking on all cylinders and going to win outright........  that was a nice int to save the day              

@JimmyGape

 Keep up your good work , buddy ! Your analysis is so damn informative and amazing ?? 

Great call, I posted this earlier as well, great win