Action on a Wednesday, might as well. I’ll post my entire card later this week.
Middle Tennessee @ Delaware -9
Due to Delaware potent home offense averaging over 430 yards per game, strong third-down poise, and ability to exploit Middle Tennessee’s bottom-tier red-zone defense (one of the worst nationally in allowing touchdowns). Delaware’s balanced attack and talent edge up front, which should let the Blue Hens control the clock and grind out a comfortable win. Blue Hens is the best team on paper in Conference USA, despite recent losses, they’ve outgained opponents like WKU (by 97 yards) and Jax State (by 68 yards), with turnovers being the main issue. Expect Delaware to handle MTSU handily, especially against a struggling program under Derek Mason. MTSU’s dropped three straight games before a bye, gone 1-8 straight-up in their last nine overall, and relied on luck in their lone win (outgained by 1.5 yards per play at Nevada).
Delaware is the superior side with home-field momentum, while MTSU’s inconsistent offense and defense make them vulnerable to a blowout.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Action on a Wednesday, might as well. I’ll post my entire card later this week.
Middle Tennessee @ Delaware -9
Due to Delaware potent home offense averaging over 430 yards per game, strong third-down poise, and ability to exploit Middle Tennessee’s bottom-tier red-zone defense (one of the worst nationally in allowing touchdowns). Delaware’s balanced attack and talent edge up front, which should let the Blue Hens control the clock and grind out a comfortable win. Blue Hens is the best team on paper in Conference USA, despite recent losses, they’ve outgained opponents like WKU (by 97 yards) and Jax State (by 68 yards), with turnovers being the main issue. Expect Delaware to handle MTSU handily, especially against a struggling program under Derek Mason. MTSU’s dropped three straight games before a bye, gone 1-8 straight-up in their last nine overall, and relied on luck in their lone win (outgained by 1.5 yards per play at Nevada).
Delaware is the superior side with home-field momentum, while MTSU’s inconsistent offense and defense make them vulnerable to a blowout.
Ole Miss enters as underdogs after a tough stretch, highlighted by a significant loss to Georgia where their defense collapsed, allowing points on the first eight drives and getting out-gained 143-13 in the fourth quarter alone. The Rebels have shown vulnerability on the road, going 0-8-2 ATS in the second half of consecutive road games. Last year’s win over Oklahoma (25-14 at home) was aided by a strong second-half surge (outscoring the Sooners 19-6), but this time they’re making their first trip to Norman since a 1999 bowl game. Distractions around head coach Lane Kiffin, with reports of interest from Florida potentially impacting focus, Kiffin hasn’t discouraged the speculation, unlike other coaches.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, is coming off a narrow win but boasts a defense that’s held all seven opponents to season-low yardage in 2025, the only team in the nation with that claim. Oklahoma’s home edge is significant, with a 7-0 ATS trend against foes coming off two straight defeats. Oklahoma’s ability to limit opponents, with recent games staying under totals and strong performances against similar profiles.
Oklahoma 8-1 ATS as HF vs Power-5 opponents last 2 seasons
Ole Miss 0-5 ATS after facing a Top-10 team
Oklahoma’s balance (249 pass / 130 rush per game) and red-zone efficiency (31-of-39 scores) contrast sharply with Ole Miss’s inconsistent second-half offense, which has produced just one TD after halftime in its last two games.
OU ranks #1 nationally in sacks (28) and top-10 in PPG allowed (14). Ole Miss’s offensive line was dominated by Georgia, surrendering 10 tackles for loss
Oklahoma’s front seven is the decisive edge. Ole Miss looked worn down and undisciplined against Georgia and now draws an even stingier defense on the road in Norman. With John Mateer getting healthier, the Sooners’ offense should find rhythm early and let their defense close the door late. Lane Kiffin’s road woes and the second-leg fatigue make it difficult to back the Rebels here.
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Ready to move on from that loss!
Play #2
12:00 Ole Miss @ Oklahoma -4
Ole Miss enters as underdogs after a tough stretch, highlighted by a significant loss to Georgia where their defense collapsed, allowing points on the first eight drives and getting out-gained 143-13 in the fourth quarter alone. The Rebels have shown vulnerability on the road, going 0-8-2 ATS in the second half of consecutive road games. Last year’s win over Oklahoma (25-14 at home) was aided by a strong second-half surge (outscoring the Sooners 19-6), but this time they’re making their first trip to Norman since a 1999 bowl game. Distractions around head coach Lane Kiffin, with reports of interest from Florida potentially impacting focus, Kiffin hasn’t discouraged the speculation, unlike other coaches.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, is coming off a narrow win but boasts a defense that’s held all seven opponents to season-low yardage in 2025, the only team in the nation with that claim. Oklahoma’s home edge is significant, with a 7-0 ATS trend against foes coming off two straight defeats. Oklahoma’s ability to limit opponents, with recent games staying under totals and strong performances against similar profiles.
Oklahoma 8-1 ATS as HF vs Power-5 opponents last 2 seasons
Ole Miss 0-5 ATS after facing a Top-10 team
Oklahoma’s balance (249 pass / 130 rush per game) and red-zone efficiency (31-of-39 scores) contrast sharply with Ole Miss’s inconsistent second-half offense, which has produced just one TD after halftime in its last two games.
OU ranks #1 nationally in sacks (28) and top-10 in PPG allowed (14). Ole Miss’s offensive line was dominated by Georgia, surrendering 10 tackles for loss
Oklahoma’s front seven is the decisive edge. Ole Miss looked worn down and undisciplined against Georgia and now draws an even stingier defense on the road in Norman. With John Mateer getting healthier, the Sooners’ offense should find rhythm early and let their defense close the door late. Lane Kiffin’s road woes and the second-leg fatigue make it difficult to back the Rebels here.
This matchup sets up perfectly for points. Both offenses are coming off rough outings, but the underlying numbers point toward a bounce-back on both sides. Rutgers has quietly been one of the most consistent Over teams in the Big Ten this year, and Purdue’s defense is showing cracks everywhere, especially through the air.
Six of Rutgers’ seven games have already topped this number, and Purdue’s last five have all featured big yardage totals on both sides. Neither defense is built to control tempo, and both offenses can exploit each other’s weak spots.
Why I Like the Over
Defensive issues: Rutgers gave up 446 yards to Oregon and over 500 to Washington. Purdue’s allowed 30+ in four of its last five and is giving up 315 passing yards per game.
Tempo: Both teams run fast-paced, no-huddle looks that extend drives and create more possessions.
Explosive Plays: Purdue can still stretch the field vertically, and Rutgers’ QB play has improved enough to take advantage of a soft secondary.
Motivation Factor: Both staffs badly need this one. Expect aggressive 4th-down calls and very little punting in plus territory.
I don’t see either defense holding up for four quarters. Rutgers’ secondary is getting exposed weekly, and Purdue’s tackling and discipline are falling apart. Both teams should trade scores throughout, and this one could turn into a “who has the ball last” type of finish.
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Play #3
12:00 Rutgers @ Purdue over 58
This matchup sets up perfectly for points. Both offenses are coming off rough outings, but the underlying numbers point toward a bounce-back on both sides. Rutgers has quietly been one of the most consistent Over teams in the Big Ten this year, and Purdue’s defense is showing cracks everywhere, especially through the air.
Six of Rutgers’ seven games have already topped this number, and Purdue’s last five have all featured big yardage totals on both sides. Neither defense is built to control tempo, and both offenses can exploit each other’s weak spots.
Why I Like the Over
Defensive issues: Rutgers gave up 446 yards to Oregon and over 500 to Washington. Purdue’s allowed 30+ in four of its last five and is giving up 315 passing yards per game.
Tempo: Both teams run fast-paced, no-huddle looks that extend drives and create more possessions.
Explosive Plays: Purdue can still stretch the field vertically, and Rutgers’ QB play has improved enough to take advantage of a soft secondary.
Motivation Factor: Both staffs badly need this one. Expect aggressive 4th-down calls and very little punting in plus territory.
I don’t see either defense holding up for four quarters. Rutgers’ secondary is getting exposed weekly, and Purdue’s tackling and discipline are falling apart. Both teams should trade scores throughout, and this one could turn into a “who has the ball last” type of finish.
This sets up as a tough spot for Cal and a great situational edge for Virginia Tech. The Hokies come in off a bye week, while Cal travels across the country on short rest for a Friday night game in Blacksburg, one of the toughest environments in the ACC when “Enter Sandman” is echoing through Lane Stadium. Had to say it but let’s not put too much emphasis on the song, it’s just super cool!
Cal is 5–2 but has fattened up on weak opponents. Their only ACC wins came against Boston College and North Carolina, both struggling defenses, and they were lucky to escape after UNC fumbling on the goal line. They’re just -14 YPG vs a bottom-45 schedule. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech’s record doesn’t show how much better they’ve looked under interim HC Monty Montgomery, who has them playing hard and improving each week.
Virginia Tech’s offense has been inconsistent, but QB Kyron Drones has quietly hit 61% completions with solid dual-threat ability, and RB Kendrick Raphael has added steady production (509 yds, 4.4 YPC). Cal’s defense ranks respectably on paper, but they’ve yet to face a balanced attack like this, their numbers are inflated after facing six below-average offenses.
Virginia Tech is 16-8 ATS as a favorite at home and 5-0 to the over off a bye since 2021.
Hokies off a bye vs Cal on short rest & long travel (3 time zones).
Cal’s QB JKS has 7 INTs and faces a defense holding foes 7 YPG below average.
VT defense inconsistent vs pass but strong vs run (only 137 rush YPG allowed).
Crowd advantage is huge on a Friday night in Lane Stadium.
Virginia Tech uses rest, atmosphere, and motivation to pull away late. Cal’s offense sputters once forced to throw from behind.
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Play #4
maybe I can hit a game not played on Saturday!
Cal @ Virginia Tech -6
This sets up as a tough spot for Cal and a great situational edge for Virginia Tech. The Hokies come in off a bye week, while Cal travels across the country on short rest for a Friday night game in Blacksburg, one of the toughest environments in the ACC when “Enter Sandman” is echoing through Lane Stadium. Had to say it but let’s not put too much emphasis on the song, it’s just super cool!
Cal is 5–2 but has fattened up on weak opponents. Their only ACC wins came against Boston College and North Carolina, both struggling defenses, and they were lucky to escape after UNC fumbling on the goal line. They’re just -14 YPG vs a bottom-45 schedule. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech’s record doesn’t show how much better they’ve looked under interim HC Monty Montgomery, who has them playing hard and improving each week.
Virginia Tech’s offense has been inconsistent, but QB Kyron Drones has quietly hit 61% completions with solid dual-threat ability, and RB Kendrick Raphael has added steady production (509 yds, 4.4 YPC). Cal’s defense ranks respectably on paper, but they’ve yet to face a balanced attack like this, their numbers are inflated after facing six below-average offenses.
Virginia Tech is 16-8 ATS as a favorite at home and 5-0 to the over off a bye since 2021.
Hokies off a bye vs Cal on short rest & long travel (3 time zones).
Cal’s QB JKS has 7 INTs and faces a defense holding foes 7 YPG below average.
VT defense inconsistent vs pass but strong vs run (only 137 rush YPG allowed).
Crowd advantage is huge on a Friday night in Lane Stadium.
Virginia Tech uses rest, atmosphere, and motivation to pull away late. Cal’s offense sputters once forced to throw from behind.
I get the old saying, when it looks too easy, look the other way but I can’t pass on SMU here. Wake’s 4–2 record looks decent until you look at who they’ve beaten: Kennesaw State by one, Western Carolina, a struggling Virginia Tech, and winless Oregon State. Their schedule has been soft, and while the defense has looked better, it’s hard to trust that against real competition.
SMU’s two losses came against Baylor and TCU, a much tougher slate than what Wake’s seen. Since then, they’ve reeled off three straight conference wins by 18, 24, and 11 all by double digits. Rhett Lashlee has made league play his focus, and SMU is now 20–0 in regular-season conference games with an average margin of victory of 22 points.
Jennings has been sharp (68% comp, 17 TDs, 7 INTs), and this offense should have no issue moving the ball. SMU’s simply the more complete team and should keep rolling.
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play #5
12:00 SMU -3 @ Wake Forest
I get the old saying, when it looks too easy, look the other way but I can’t pass on SMU here. Wake’s 4–2 record looks decent until you look at who they’ve beaten: Kennesaw State by one, Western Carolina, a struggling Virginia Tech, and winless Oregon State. Their schedule has been soft, and while the defense has looked better, it’s hard to trust that against real competition.
SMU’s two losses came against Baylor and TCU, a much tougher slate than what Wake’s seen. Since then, they’ve reeled off three straight conference wins by 18, 24, and 11 all by double digits. Rhett Lashlee has made league play his focus, and SMU is now 20–0 in regular-season conference games with an average margin of victory of 22 points.
Jennings has been sharp (68% comp, 17 TDs, 7 INTs), and this offense should have no issue moving the ball. SMU’s simply the more complete team and should keep rolling.
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