Tonight I throw a small home. We mob to the moons and leave no lunar landers unturned.

I did a massive write up and when I copy it here it tells me the "Post text is empty".

I'll make a very long story short. 

 Gimme Clemson +3  -125  Max play Hammer 

Jimmy, you drunk? 

Alright guys I've been diving deep into this game all week and I'm pretty confident on Clemson plus the points here. Let me walk you through why this feels like one of those spots where the public is gonna get burned.

So first off lets talk about whats going on with Louisville because honestly its not pretty right now. They just lost at home to Cal 29 to 26 in overtime as like 20 point favorites or something crazy like that. That wasn't just a bad loss, that was an absolute catastrophe. And the more you dig into it the worse it looks for them going forward.

Miller Moss has completely fallen off a cliff and his QBR has been dropping week after week. Over his last three games he's only completing like 58 percent of his passes, averaging 175 yards per game, and he's thrown more picks than touchdowns. Compare that to the first six games where he was at 66 percent completions and 267 yards per game with 9 TDs and 4 picks. Its like watching the exact same thing that happened to him at USC last year when Riley benched him in November. Same exact pattern its crazy.

The Cal game was embarassing for Moss. He had 203 yards on 38 attempts which is only 4.8 yards per dropback. Thats like backup QB numbers. And get this theres actual talk about benching him, Brohm even said theres always a plan to help us win when asked about the QB situation. When your coach starts saying stuff like that you know its bad lol.

Now heres the thing that really changes this game IMO. Isaac Brown is out, hes their star running back who averages like 8.6 yards per carry which leads the entire ACC on 782 yards. Last year when Louisville beat Clemson he ran for 151 yards and a touchdown. His yards per carry is actually number one in the whole country I think. That guy is their entire offense basically, without him theyre totally different.

Yeah I know Keyjuan Brown had 136 yards against Cal but come on, Cal has the fourth worst run defense in the ACC giving up 155 yards per game. Clemson is 5th in the ACC in rush defense only allowing like 108 yards per game. Thats a completely different animal to deal with. Not even close to the same thing.

So this brings me to the Jeff Brohm thing that people need to understand. Over the last two seasons there have been 18 times a team lost as a 15 point or bigger favorite in conference play, and Louisville has TWO of those losses under Brohm. Like these massive choke jobs have become part of his resume at Louisville. Its wierd.

Now some people will point out that Brohm is 5 and 2 straight up after losses during the regular season at Louisville including beating Miami as a double digit dog this year. But heres what Im seeing different about this spot... those bounce backs were mostly when Louisville was the underdog with nothing to loose. Here they're favored at home after getting embarrassed. Thats a totally different psychological situation and I dont think this team has the mental toughness to handle it right now. Just my opinion though.

Brohm himself said after the Cal game we have to stick in there and play tougher, we need to make catches when your number is called and block when you are supposed to. When your head coach is publicly questioning the teams toughness thats not exactly a ringing endorsement going into a big game. Not good.

Meanwhile Clemson is starting to play some real football finally. Klubnik threw for a TD and ran for another in their 24 to 10 win over Florida State, he went 19 for 26 for 221 yards. But the bigger picture is in his last four starts Klubnik is completing almost 78 percent of his passes for like 1,140 yards with 8 touchdowns and only one pick plus two rushing scores. Thats legit elite quarterback play right there.

Defensively they completely shut down Florida State. They held FSUs offense which leads the ACC in rushing to season lows across the board, 360 total yards, 110 rushing yards, and only 10 points. They had 9 tackles for loss including 6 sacks. This isnt the same Clemson team that was sleepwalking through games earlier this year, they're playing with an edge now. You can see the difference.

Look I know Clemsons pass defense has been trash all year, theyre outside the top 100 giving up like 245 yards per game through the air. But who cares when youre going against a quarterback whos completing 63.8 percent with only 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions? Moss cant take advantage of a bad secondary right now, he's way too inconsistent. He'll probably throw a pick or two.

On the flip side Louisvilles secondary just got torched for 350 yards by Cal and Klubnik is playing the best ball of his season. Plus Clemson has two top four NFL draft prospects in Peter Woods and TJ Parker, plus like seven guys in the top 400 overall. The talent gap between these teams isnt what the records make it seem like at all. Clemson should be way better than 4 and 5.

Then you got the head to head history which is crazy lopsided. Clemson is 6 and 1 against the spread in their last 7 games against Louisville and 8 and 1 straight up in their last 9 against the Cardinals. Louisville won for the first time ever in the series last year ending an eight game losing streak. And get this Louisville is 0 and 4 all time at home against Clemson. They have literally never beaten them in Louisville. Thats insane when you think about it.

Clemson is also 7 and 2 straight up in their last 9 road games. This is a team that knows how to win on the road and theyre getting points? When does Clemson ever get points on the road against anybody not named Georgia or Ohio State? Basically never.

The line opened at Louisville minus 2.5 and has barely moved to minus 3. Thats with 73 percent of the moneyline money on Louisville but 53 percent of spread tickets on Clemson. The sharp money knows something here, this number should be way higher if Louisville was the right side. Sharp money is on Clemson for sure.

Louisville is only 3 and 6 against the spread this season and 2 and 6 ATS when favored by 3 points or more. Clemson is 4 and 10 ATS in their last 14 games overall but more importantly theyre 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12 specifically. So they show up this time of year.

Heres what it comes down to. Youre getting a more talented team with a better quarterback whos in way better form, catching points on the road in a revenge spot, against a team that just suffered one of the worst losses of the season, lost their best player in Isaac Brown, has a QB who's completely fallen apart down the stretch, has a coach whos 2 and 6 ATS as a favorite of 3 plus points this year, and cant cover at home with only 1 cover in their last 7 home games according to the numbers.

Clemson isnt just gonna cover this number, I think they win this game straight up honestly. The Tigers are gonna come in there and take care of buisness. This Louisville team is broken right now mentally and physically. Clemson gets their revenge from last year and moves closer to bowl eligibilty which they desperately need.

Take Clemson plus 3 at minus 125 and dont overthink it. This ones gonna be easier than people think. Sometimes the answer is right in front of you and everyones looking the other way. Thats this game right here.

Jhoss zip your pants back up and buckle in. Come on, focus

Quit drinking

@SourSausage

 Amazing, how'd you know I was taking a shit when I saw this?

Put me down for Klubnik o 1.5 PTDs!

Love the write ups Jimmy. Lets get it. 

Sidenote: Purdy is finally f*cking back.

Everyone on the board is on Clemson. There is too much historical evidence for going with other side when that happens.

Plus Louisville’s best defensive player Stanquan Wilcox is back. I like Louisville to bounce back. 

yup

 Originally Posted by jhoss00   @SourSausage  Amazing, how'd you know I was taking a shit when I saw this?      thanks for the energy boost... some stuff on here just perks me up....          

There is historical evidence to "go with the other side when the whole board is on one side"? There can't possibly be "evidence" for such a thing as by definiton such a thing can only be strictly anectodal.

Did Dabo tell you this when you had on the phone earlier today?