Posted Record: 2-1 All I can say about today's card is mmmmm, chalk. BOL everyone.
G Tech at Miami -3
Georgia Tech was a feel good story early in the year but the buzz has quited after a five point win over Maryland and a loss to Virginia, yes Virginia and no not Virginia Tech. They have been held to 21 points in both games, and it appears as if teams are realizing how to slow down Tevin Washington and the triple option, and that Tech is wearing down a bit. Miami's defense isn't great, but I feel they have the edge on the offensive side. Miami features a balanced attack with RB Lamar Miller and QB Jacory Harris. G Tech has been pretty solid against the pass, but they have not faced a QB like Harris, and they've been giving up yards on the ground. This would be a huge win for a 3-3 Miami team, and I think they are catching Tech at the right time to grab the W.
Maryland at FSU -18
My question in this game is what is Maryland made of? Their last two games make them appear pretty respectable playing G Tech and Clemson close, but I think this game will be different for several reasons. Number one, why are the oddsmakers pegging this line at 18 after Maryland's two recent performances? Also, coming off what would have been a great win against Clemson turned meltdown last game, it will be hard for them to respond and bring the intensity in this game. Finally, C.J. Brown has replaced Danny O'Brien and has been running wild, but I think teams have seen enough of it to where they will gameplan for him and start to shut him down. Florida State is too athletic for this Maryland squad and should get back on track at home against a deflated Maryland team.
E Carolina at Navy -11
East Carolina is not a bad squad despite their record, but I think they are catching this Navy squad at the wrong time. Navy is coming off three straight losses by a combined five points, and will be coming out determined and pissed off against a team they beat 76-35 last year. Simply put, East Carolina doesn't have the defense to stop them, ranking 85 in the country in run defense, which is almost all Navy does. Rutgers did a nice job slowing down Navy's run game, but ECU is a far cry from Rutgers defensively. The Pirates are also last in the country in turnover margin, and they simply can't afford to make mistakes against this offense. Navy will run it consistently and wear down this East Carolina defense, making a 14+ point victory well within reach. Navy's season isn't as bad as the record makes it seem, and they could use a big convincing win to get back on track against ECU. Navy is a team that will always show up and play hard no matter how bad things are going, and I think they do just that in this game.
Army at Vandy -11
Vandy finally looked to get the offense going against Georgia, particularly the running game. The difference between these two teams, to me, is the level of competition. Vandy has faced South Carolina, Bama and Georgia, while Army has lost three games on the road, all to MAC opponents, most recently Miami Ohio, who got their first win on the season. Army is a triple-option running team, and Vandy is respectable against the run despite their level of competition. Another edge that goes to Vandy in this game is turnover margin, where Army has been less than good and Vandy has done well. The Vandy offensive line appeared to come together in last week's game, and at 3-3 Vandy could still go bowling but they really need a win against an Army team that hasn't traveled well all year.
USC at Notre Dame -9
USC is good but not great this year, and Notre Dame is an excellent football team when they don't beat themselves with turnovers. USC has already gotten that ass whooped by Arizona State, and also got scored on quite a bit by Arizona, who both run similar offenses to ND and don't have the same level of talent. ND is also coming off a bye and scheduled this game at night, so clearly it means a ton to these kids and the program. To me the edge offensively goes to ND because of balance, and given that USC has been getting beat through the air, that could be an issue facing Tommy Rees and Michael Floyd. ND has defended the run well and will likely have to rely Matt Barkley to win the game. He's a great player, but I don't think he can beat ND single-handedly. If ND plays a good ball game and doesn't turn the ball over they should win and cover this game.
SMU at Southern Miss -3
Huge win over conference foe UCF last week and another nice win over TCU the week before for SMU, now they go on the road to face a very good conference foe in Southern Miss. Southern Miss has been putting up a ton of points, and should be able to match the offensive output of June Jones' offense. To me, there are two major advantages that Southern Miss has in this game. One, they are coming off a bye and have a chance to get healthy, especially at running back. If they can assert the run and keep SMU's offense of the field, they stand a good chance of winning this game. Also, SMU has not protected the ball, which is always a problem going on the road in conference against a solid Southern Miss squad.