A winner was posted here last week (6-4, .600). That takes the season overall to .450 (9-11). Not so good. However, looking at every game, the box likes these for week number three: 1) FlaAtl(+2.5)/FlaInter 2) NorthTexas(-5.5)/WashingtonSt 3) Liberty(-6.5)/BowlingGreen 4) CoastalCar(+6.5)/EastCarolina 5) NorthCarSt(-7)/WakeForest 6) WestVirginia(+7)/Pittsburgh 7) UtahState (4)/AirForce 8) GeorgiaTech(+4 )/Clemson 9) Duke(+3)/Tulane 10) Vanderbilt(+5.5)/SouthCarolina 11) Kentucky(-24.5)/EasternMich 12) LSU(-7.5)/Florida 13) MiamiFlorida(-16)/SouthFlorida 14) UCLA(-15)/NewMexico
So far, the system has demonstrated some rank value (top three picks, 5-1, .833). That certainly won’t last, but it’s worth basking-in for the moment.
Being a Power Rating player, I did some research in the off-season regarding the Delta; the weekly amount of change. There are a number of PR sources (Steele, Sagarin, Massey, VSIN, SP+, more), so you can pick your poison. I’m guessing the source would not appreciably alter the research outcome -- but difficult to research them all.
Anyway, change slowed going into week #4; stabilizing for the remainder of the season. That makes sense, and reflects a seasonal database that grows to the point of a diminishing return. That would suggest a degree of predictive volatility in the early going. A few more courses would have garnered a math major – so I’ll defer any more comment until I get around to completing those.
We have 47 on the board this week, so plenty of opportunity! Good luck, TheKingfish
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
A winner was posted here last week (6-4, .600). That takes the season overall to .450 (9-11). Not so good. However, looking at every game, the box likes these for week number three: 1) FlaAtl(+2.5)/FlaInter 2) NorthTexas(-5.5)/WashingtonSt 3) Liberty(-6.5)/BowlingGreen 4) CoastalCar(+6.5)/EastCarolina 5) NorthCarSt(-7)/WakeForest 6) WestVirginia(+7)/Pittsburgh 7) UtahState (4)/AirForce 8) GeorgiaTech(+4 )/Clemson 9) Duke(+3)/Tulane 10) Vanderbilt(+5.5)/SouthCarolina 11) Kentucky(-24.5)/EasternMich 12) LSU(-7.5)/Florida 13) MiamiFlorida(-16)/SouthFlorida 14) UCLA(-15)/NewMexico
So far, the system has demonstrated some rank value (top three picks, 5-1, .833). That certainly won’t last, but it’s worth basking-in for the moment.
Being a Power Rating player, I did some research in the off-season regarding the Delta; the weekly amount of change. There are a number of PR sources (Steele, Sagarin, Massey, VSIN, SP+, more), so you can pick your poison. I’m guessing the source would not appreciably alter the research outcome -- but difficult to research them all.
Anyway, change slowed going into week #4; stabilizing for the remainder of the season. That makes sense, and reflects a seasonal database that grows to the point of a diminishing return. That would suggest a degree of predictive volatility in the early going. A few more courses would have garnered a math major – so I’ll defer any more comment until I get around to completing those.
We have 47 on the board this week, so plenty of opportunity! Good luck, TheKingfish
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