Glad to return for a fourth year on the forum! With hope springing eternal, my resume is unchanged. I’m low on flamboyance, with a capping style that is decidedly technical. I am a Pascal programmer; a number-cruncher and a slave to data/history. I use a self-created algorithm comprised of historic trends culled from a 2013-24 database (7,583 games). Foundationally, my algorithm uses Power-Ratings.
Years ago, I used a generic algorithm (no PRs). It was less successful for me, but held a powerful amount of data (1976-2012 / 19,588 games). During this past off-season I did some research and added an adjunct wing to my executable. I’d seen evidence that time zone travel affects ATS performance in all sports, so my curiosity was peaked for the NCAAF side of it.
Given that long-travel (coast to coast) is far less frequent than otherwise, I felt that only my old very-large database might be effective in analyzing that smaller sample size. My need, of course, was to quantify. So, does such phenomena exist in college ball? My research says it does – more pronounced for teams going west-to-east than the reverse. And the output data consistently favors the home team; as any good researcher would hope to discover. Or, better said: Hypothesis always precedes Experiment within the realm of good scientific method.
Anyway. In the big picture, if history repeats, there is hope for my system. OTOH, if the future diverges from its noble-past -- then success becomes more elusive for me.
Full disclosure on 2024 performance – my first-half was less than profitable. However, I tweaked the system (adjusted the algorithm) and brought some value during the final eight weeks (top eleven picks, .650, 52-28-3). Gratifying to impart that.....
However, that was then. This week we have 4 games on the board; next week 46 games. So, in technical terms, we will soon be awash in opportunity. For the record, I am sharing my first Saturday selection: Stanford(+2.5)/Hawaii
As a tech guy, I tend to bring volume each week. And volume is a positive when linked with reasonable success. Albeit, my overall geek approach will have limited-interest for many. In the end, I hope to make a positive contribution to the forum, and wish all of you well in the challenging new season ahead.
Good luck,
TheKingfish
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