The pick:
ML PARLAY:
Middle Tennessee -275 over Hawaii
San Diego -200 over Cleveland
$100 pays $105
San Diego over Cleveland -
This was very close switch with the Bills over Miami but I have to take the Chargers here at the exact same ML.
This goes back to the "Minimum Standards" angle where a team that is historically awful can remove the stain of losing by taking out "that team." Every team doesn't want to be "that team" so after Cleveland lost about 8-9 games, the other teams, no matter how bad, are treating the game as a must-win. So we forget the spread. And San Diego however bad will respond accordingly. Do I expect it to be close? Yes. And Cleveland may actually lead.
But the question is this: How can Cleveland keep that up for 4 quarters? Haven't done that all year and at the tail end of last year. They haven't scored more than 13 points since October 30th against the Jets. This team does not score. Can't score. Can't win. Is San Diego bad and on it's own 3 game losing streak? Yes.
But how do you beat San Diego? You make them turn the ball over through Rivers. And how does Cleveland do in that area. 8 INt's all year. ONE every other game. At almost the very bottom of the league. Overall 28th in the league in giveaway/takeaway. So how will you stop Rivers on offense? He's going to be throwing every down now that Gordon is likely out.
I saw this with the Lions. Every team prevented themselves from begin 'that team' and they took it right to the finish line. Cleveland has horrible run defense (second worst in the league so even the backups will put up numbers) and only a moderately decent pass defense but they are terrible defending tight ends. And you are going up against Gates here. Cleveland gave up a wide open touchdown Charles Clay last week (wasn't a player within 10 yards of him) and 2 to Eifert the week before. Even their FG kicker, if needed to win this game is 0-3 on 50+ yarders this year.
RG3 NEEDS to be that mobile QB with the pass and that player is long gone. I am more than willing to fade RG3 in every game he plays until the end of his career when the spread is right.
Where are the risks? Like Purdue? When they were losing they went for onside kicks. They went for fake punts. They went for it on 4th down a ton. They surprised teams. They lost but at least they kept teams on their toes. Cleveland is bringing NONE of this.
San Diego has nothing to play for but to avoid being that team. And remember San Diego has been in virtually every single loss this year outside of Carolina. This could easily be an 8/9 win team if the ball bounces there way a few times.
They have a lot more to play for than the Bills, who are essentially eliminated against Miami and these two games have the same ML. Cleveland as discussed has ZERO home filed advantage so you get a bargain on the ML and the spread (tickets are going for $7). I love to take teams to BREAK streaks but you have to know when they will break. Here? This team has lost 17 in a row and I don't see a win here given the above. Gordon may even play and that will be even more of an impetus for the play if he does. I also like that the Chargers are not play in San Diego since Rivers commented he feels like he's playing an away game at home. Demoralizing. And they travel to the worst HF advantage in the league without having that home fan stigma.
No complaints about the ML parlay. You DON'T HAVE to play it if you don't like it. I don't like laying points in either game so I'll just parlay the two and make the house pay me the juice.
The pick:
ML PARLAY:
Middle Tennessee -275 over Hawaii
San Diego -200 over Cleveland
$100 pays $105
San Diego over Cleveland -
This was very close switch with the Bills over Miami but I have to take the Chargers here at the exact same ML.
This goes back to the "Minimum Standards" angle where a team that is historically awful can remove the stain of losing by taking out "that team." Every team doesn't want to be "that team" so after Cleveland lost about 8-9 games, the other teams, no matter how bad, are treating the game as a must-win. So we forget the spread. And San Diego however bad will respond accordingly. Do I expect it to be close? Yes. And Cleveland may actually lead.
But the question is this: How can Cleveland keep that up for 4 quarters? Haven't done that all year and at the tail end of last year. They haven't scored more than 13 points since October 30th against the Jets. This team does not score. Can't score. Can't win. Is San Diego bad and on it's own 3 game losing streak? Yes.
But how do you beat San Diego? You make them turn the ball over through Rivers. And how does Cleveland do in that area. 8 INt's all year. ONE every other game. At almost the very bottom of the league. Overall 28th in the league in giveaway/takeaway. So how will you stop Rivers on offense? He's going to be throwing every down now that Gordon is likely out.
I saw this with the Lions. Every team prevented themselves from begin 'that team' and they took it right to the finish line. Cleveland has horrible run defense (second worst in the league so even the backups will put up numbers) and only a moderately decent pass defense but they are terrible defending tight ends. And you are going up against Gates here. Cleveland gave up a wide open touchdown Charles Clay last week (wasn't a player within 10 yards of him) and 2 to Eifert the week before. Even their FG kicker, if needed to win this game is 0-3 on 50+ yarders this year.
RG3 NEEDS to be that mobile QB with the pass and that player is long gone. I am more than willing to fade RG3 in every game he plays until the end of his career when the spread is right.
Where are the risks? Like Purdue? When they were losing they went for onside kicks. They went for fake punts. They went for it on 4th down a ton. They surprised teams. They lost but at least they kept teams on their toes. Cleveland is bringing NONE of this.
San Diego has nothing to play for but to avoid being that team. And remember San Diego has been in virtually every single loss this year outside of Carolina. This could easily be an 8/9 win team if the ball bounces there way a few times.
They have a lot more to play for than the Bills, who are essentially eliminated against Miami and these two games have the same ML. Cleveland as discussed has ZERO home filed advantage so you get a bargain on the ML and the spread (tickets are going for $7). I love to take teams to BREAK streaks but you have to know when they will break. Here? This team has lost 17 in a row and I don't see a win here given the above. Gordon may even play and that will be even more of an impetus for the play if he does. I also like that the Chargers are not play in San Diego since Rivers commented he feels like he's playing an away game at home. Demoralizing. And they travel to the worst HF advantage in the league without having that home fan stigma.
No complaints about the ML parlay. You DON'T HAVE to play it if you don't like it. I don't like laying points in either game so I'll just parlay the two and make the house pay me the juice.
So let me get this straight, you are going to troll my thread for a non-pick because that pick didn't hit. Wow. As though I was going to come back here and say "Shoulda took the Bills like I noted". As though anyone here would care. GTFO Hugh. You're a joke.
I took these teams ON THE ML because I knew the games would be close.
And this Browns game, on the ML was a cosmic fu**ing of the highest order. A blocked FG and a missed FG to end the game. And on top of that the ESPN app showed a 23-20 Chargers final score for a minute where I thought I won. I deserve the loss if that's how they'll lose it.
Rough patch here.
No tailing till I streak so I'll post for my benefit only.
I'd post the MTSU -7 line here but I think I've lost my past 3 games where I chased that night so no chase tonight.
35-20 (~64%) in 2016.
Just watch the picks, wait until I go on a winning streak and then look to tail. Otherwise, just observe.
Not the way I wanted to close out the year for all the posters here but I'll have to grin and bear it. Houston and SD were bad plays. Plain and simple. I'll have to clean up the capping.
So let me get this straight, you are going to troll my thread for a non-pick because that pick didn't hit. Wow. As though I was going to come back here and say "Shoulda took the Bills like I noted". As though anyone here would care. GTFO Hugh. You're a joke.
I took these teams ON THE ML because I knew the games would be close.
And this Browns game, on the ML was a cosmic fu**ing of the highest order. A blocked FG and a missed FG to end the game. And on top of that the ESPN app showed a 23-20 Chargers final score for a minute where I thought I won. I deserve the loss if that's how they'll lose it.
Rough patch here.
No tailing till I streak so I'll post for my benefit only.
I'd post the MTSU -7 line here but I think I've lost my past 3 games where I chased that night so no chase tonight.
35-20 (~64%) in 2016.
Just watch the picks, wait until I go on a winning streak and then look to tail. Otherwise, just observe.
Not the way I wanted to close out the year for all the posters here but I'll have to grin and bear it. Houston and SD were bad plays. Plain and simple. I'll have to clean up the capping.
This wasn't about an easy win. I said the game would be close. This game would never be a blowout. I like MTSU over Hawaii but have gotten burned of late laying chalk on the road and this is one of the rare bowls, like Idaho, where it is a true home game for one of participants.
So I looked to the NFL to get me even money on parlay and took a very iffy game. Lost it. Backed a team that has screwed so many all year and they did it yet again (did it last week as 2.5 pt dogs and lost by 3).
This wasn't about an easy win. I said the game would be close. This game would never be a blowout. I like MTSU over Hawaii but have gotten burned of late laying chalk on the road and this is one of the rare bowls, like Idaho, where it is a true home game for one of participants.
So I looked to the NFL to get me even money on parlay and took a very iffy game. Lost it. Backed a team that has screwed so many all year and they did it yet again (did it last week as 2.5 pt dogs and lost by 3).
So let me get this straight, you are going to troll my thread for a non-pick because that pick didn't hit. Wow. As though I was going to come back here and say "Shoulda took the Bills like I noted". As though anyone here would care. GTFO Hugh. You're a joke.
I took these teams ON THE ML because I knew the games would be close.
And this Browns game, on the ML was a cosmic fu**ing of the highest order. A blocked FG and a missed FG to end the game. And on top of that the ESPN app showed a 23-20 Chargers final score for a minute where I thought I won. I deserve the loss if that's how they'll lose it.
Rough patch here.
No tailing till I streak so I'll post for my benefit only.
I'd post the MTSU -7 line here but I think I've lost my past 3 games where I chased that night so no chase tonight.
35-20 (~64%) in 2016.
Just watch the picks, wait until I go on a winning streak and then look to tail. Otherwise, just observe.
Not the way I wanted to close out the year for all the posters here but I'll have to grin and bear it. Houston and SD were bad plays. Plain and simple. I'll have to clean up the capping.
So let me get this straight, you are going to troll my thread for a non-pick because that pick didn't hit. Wow. As though I was going to come back here and say "Shoulda took the Bills like I noted". As though anyone here would care. GTFO Hugh. You're a joke.
I took these teams ON THE ML because I knew the games would be close.
And this Browns game, on the ML was a cosmic fu**ing of the highest order. A blocked FG and a missed FG to end the game. And on top of that the ESPN app showed a 23-20 Chargers final score for a minute where I thought I won. I deserve the loss if that's how they'll lose it.
Rough patch here.
No tailing till I streak so I'll post for my benefit only.
I'd post the MTSU -7 line here but I think I've lost my past 3 games where I chased that night so no chase tonight.
35-20 (~64%) in 2016.
Just watch the picks, wait until I go on a winning streak and then look to tail. Otherwise, just observe.
Not the way I wanted to close out the year for all the posters here but I'll have to grin and bear it. Houston and SD were bad plays. Plain and simple. I'll have to clean up the capping.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.