I've been staring at this Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee game for hours and I'm going to share why I think MTSU plus 4.5 at -131 is one of the best plays I've seen all season.
Let me start with the obvious concern for Jacksonville State. Their quarterback Caden Creel hurt his UCL tendon in his left arm against Delaware two weeks ago. Now I know what you're thinking, it's his non throwing arm so what's the big deal right? Here's the thing though. Creel is their second leading rusher with 438 yards on 69 carries. That's a 6.3 yard per carry average and he's scored three rushing touchdowns in his last four games. The kid is a dual threat freshman who gives that offense an entirely different dimension. If he's compromised at all, and you have to think a two week old UCL injury isn't fully healed, then Jacksonville State loses a massive part of what makes them dangerous. And if he can't go at all, you're looking at Gavin Wimsatt coming in, the same guy who got benched for poor play earlier this season. Wimsatt is completing 56 percent of his passes with a 2 to 2 touchdown to interception ratio. Not exactly inspiring.
But here's what really jumped out at me when I dug into this. Jacksonville State is 1 and 3 on the road this year. They lost at UCF by 15, lost at Georgia Southern, got blown out at Southern Miss 42 to 25, and their only road win came against winless Sam Houston where they barely squeaked by 29 to 27. This is not a team that travels well. They're a young squad with a freshman quarterback and their offense is completely one dimensional. They want to hand the ball to Cam Cook 25 times and pound you into submission. That works great at home where they control tempo and the crowd is behind them. On the road? Not so much.
Now let's talk about Middle Tennessee because this is where it gets really interesting. They're 1 and 6 on the season and 0 and 3 in conference play, but here's the key stat. Their last four losses have come by a combined 13 points. They lost to Delaware 31 to 28. Lost to Missouri State 22 to 20. Lost to Kennesaw State 24 to 16. These aren't blowouts. They're right there in every single game. One or two plays go differently and they're sitting at 4 and 3 instead of 1 and 6. At some point the law of averages has to kick in and positive regression has to happen. When you lose four straight games by an average of just over three points per game, you're due for a breakthrough.
Derek Mason is a defensive mastermind. This guy was the defensive coordinator at Stanford when they had one of the best defenses in the country. He was the head coach at Vanderbilt for seven years. He's been a defensive coordinator at Auburn and Oklahoma State. He knows how to gameplan for power running teams because he's faced them his entire career. And the numbers back it up. In October, Middle Tennessee's defense has allowed just 4.85 yards per play. They've tightened things up significantly and they're second in Conference USA with 13 sacks. Mason knows exactly what Jacksonville State wants to do. Stack the box, make them beat you through the air, and watch them struggle because they rank 125th nationally in EPA per pass. They cannot throw the football effectively.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I've been staring at this Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee game for hours and I'm going to share why I think MTSU plus 4.5 at -131 is one of the best plays I've seen all season.
Let me start with the obvious concern for Jacksonville State. Their quarterback Caden Creel hurt his UCL tendon in his left arm against Delaware two weeks ago. Now I know what you're thinking, it's his non throwing arm so what's the big deal right? Here's the thing though. Creel is their second leading rusher with 438 yards on 69 carries. That's a 6.3 yard per carry average and he's scored three rushing touchdowns in his last four games. The kid is a dual threat freshman who gives that offense an entirely different dimension. If he's compromised at all, and you have to think a two week old UCL injury isn't fully healed, then Jacksonville State loses a massive part of what makes them dangerous. And if he can't go at all, you're looking at Gavin Wimsatt coming in, the same guy who got benched for poor play earlier this season. Wimsatt is completing 56 percent of his passes with a 2 to 2 touchdown to interception ratio. Not exactly inspiring.
But here's what really jumped out at me when I dug into this. Jacksonville State is 1 and 3 on the road this year. They lost at UCF by 15, lost at Georgia Southern, got blown out at Southern Miss 42 to 25, and their only road win came against winless Sam Houston where they barely squeaked by 29 to 27. This is not a team that travels well. They're a young squad with a freshman quarterback and their offense is completely one dimensional. They want to hand the ball to Cam Cook 25 times and pound you into submission. That works great at home where they control tempo and the crowd is behind them. On the road? Not so much.
Now let's talk about Middle Tennessee because this is where it gets really interesting. They're 1 and 6 on the season and 0 and 3 in conference play, but here's the key stat. Their last four losses have come by a combined 13 points. They lost to Delaware 31 to 28. Lost to Missouri State 22 to 20. Lost to Kennesaw State 24 to 16. These aren't blowouts. They're right there in every single game. One or two plays go differently and they're sitting at 4 and 3 instead of 1 and 6. At some point the law of averages has to kick in and positive regression has to happen. When you lose four straight games by an average of just over three points per game, you're due for a breakthrough.
Derek Mason is a defensive mastermind. This guy was the defensive coordinator at Stanford when they had one of the best defenses in the country. He was the head coach at Vanderbilt for seven years. He's been a defensive coordinator at Auburn and Oklahoma State. He knows how to gameplan for power running teams because he's faced them his entire career. And the numbers back it up. In October, Middle Tennessee's defense has allowed just 4.85 yards per play. They've tightened things up significantly and they're second in Conference USA with 13 sacks. Mason knows exactly what Jacksonville State wants to do. Stack the box, make them beat you through the air, and watch them struggle because they rank 125th nationally in EPA per pass. They cannot throw the football effectively.
The situational spot here couldn't be better for Middle Tennessee. They're 0 and 3 at home this season. That's three home losses including one to an FCS team in Austin Peay. The players are desperate for a win in front of their own fans. After their last loss, Mason told the team he was putting it on his shoulders and that he'd work harder and be better because he needs them to step up. That's a coach who hasn't lost his locker room. That's a coach who's keeping his guys together through adversity. And now they're getting Jacksonville State on a Wednesday night under the lights with a chance to salvage their season.
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The situational spot here couldn't be better for Middle Tennessee. They're 0 and 3 at home this season. That's three home losses including one to an FCS team in Austin Peay. The players are desperate for a win in front of their own fans. After their last loss, Mason told the team he was putting it on his shoulders and that he'd work harder and be better because he needs them to step up. That's a coach who hasn't lost his locker room. That's a coach who's keeping his guys together through adversity. And now they're getting Jacksonville State on a Wednesday night under the lights with a chance to salvage their season.
Meanwhile Jacksonville State is sitting at 3 and 0 in conference play. They've already got some cushion in the standings. This is a dangerous letdown spot for them. They just came off a 14 day layoff since their last game against Delaware on October 15th. Long layoffs can create rust, especially for young teams. They're traveling to Tennessee on a Wednesday night to face a desperate team that's lost four straight by a combined 13 points. Every single situational angle points toward Middle Tennessee.
Here's another thing that jumps out. Jacksonville State is 0 and 2 against the spread this season when favored by 6 or more points. They cannot cover big numbers. They're not a dominant team that blows people out. Their offense is one dimensional and their defense allows 388 yards per game. They win games but they win them ugly. And now at 4.5, you're getting a key number. Middle Tennessee only needs to lose by a field goal and you still win. They only need to keep it within four points, and given that their last four losses came by 3, 2, 8, and then another close one, that's absolutely within reach.
I also love the offensive matchup for Middle Tennessee. Nick Vattiato has thrown for 1,673 yards with 11 touchdowns against 5 interceptions. He's completing over 61 percent of his passes and just put together back to back games with over 30 completions. The guy is getting into a rhythm. Jekail Middlebrook is averaging 5.8 yards per carry out of the backfield and he's also a weapon in the passing game with 26 catches. Jacksonville State's defense ranks 116th in yards per attempt allowed through the air and they've only picked off three passes all season. They don't create turnovers. Middle Tennessee can spread them out and attack.
The matchup really comes down to this. Jacksonville State wants to run the ball with Cam Cook and control the game on the ground. They're the third best rushing team in the country at 276 yards per game. But Derek Mason is going to load the box and force them to beat him through the air, which they simply cannot do. With Creel potentially limited or out entirely, their passing game becomes even more of a liability. Meanwhile Middle Tennessee has the offensive balance to attack a Jacksonville State defense that's vulnerable through the air and doesn't create turnovers. Vattiato can pick them apart if he's given time, and the Blue Raiders have been getting better protection for him as the season has gone on.
What really confirms everything for me is the line movement. This opened at 6 or 6.5 and has crashed all the way down to 4.5. That's a massive move of 2 to 2.5 points toward Middle Tennessee. When you see that kind of movement, it's not casual bettors moving the line. That's sharp professional money coming in heavy on one side. The books have been forced to adjust significantly just to try to balance their exposure. Even at 4.5 at -131, the sharp money clearly believes there's still value on Middle Tennessee.
This is as close to a lock as you're going to find all year. I'm not saying Middle Tennessee is going to win outright, although I wouldn't be shocked if they did. What I'm saying is that getting 4.5 points with a home team that's been competitive in every game against a road favorite that struggles away from home and might be without their best offensive weapon is tremendous value. If this game comes down to a field goal or a touchdown, and based on Middle Tennessee's recent history it absolutely could, you're sitting pretty with those 4.5 points in your pocket.
I'm putting significant action on Middle Tennessee plus 4.5 at -131. This is one of my strongest plays of the week. Take the home dog and watch them compete.
Gimme the Blue Raiders +4.5
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Meanwhile Jacksonville State is sitting at 3 and 0 in conference play. They've already got some cushion in the standings. This is a dangerous letdown spot for them. They just came off a 14 day layoff since their last game against Delaware on October 15th. Long layoffs can create rust, especially for young teams. They're traveling to Tennessee on a Wednesday night to face a desperate team that's lost four straight by a combined 13 points. Every single situational angle points toward Middle Tennessee.
Here's another thing that jumps out. Jacksonville State is 0 and 2 against the spread this season when favored by 6 or more points. They cannot cover big numbers. They're not a dominant team that blows people out. Their offense is one dimensional and their defense allows 388 yards per game. They win games but they win them ugly. And now at 4.5, you're getting a key number. Middle Tennessee only needs to lose by a field goal and you still win. They only need to keep it within four points, and given that their last four losses came by 3, 2, 8, and then another close one, that's absolutely within reach.
I also love the offensive matchup for Middle Tennessee. Nick Vattiato has thrown for 1,673 yards with 11 touchdowns against 5 interceptions. He's completing over 61 percent of his passes and just put together back to back games with over 30 completions. The guy is getting into a rhythm. Jekail Middlebrook is averaging 5.8 yards per carry out of the backfield and he's also a weapon in the passing game with 26 catches. Jacksonville State's defense ranks 116th in yards per attempt allowed through the air and they've only picked off three passes all season. They don't create turnovers. Middle Tennessee can spread them out and attack.
The matchup really comes down to this. Jacksonville State wants to run the ball with Cam Cook and control the game on the ground. They're the third best rushing team in the country at 276 yards per game. But Derek Mason is going to load the box and force them to beat him through the air, which they simply cannot do. With Creel potentially limited or out entirely, their passing game becomes even more of a liability. Meanwhile Middle Tennessee has the offensive balance to attack a Jacksonville State defense that's vulnerable through the air and doesn't create turnovers. Vattiato can pick them apart if he's given time, and the Blue Raiders have been getting better protection for him as the season has gone on.
What really confirms everything for me is the line movement. This opened at 6 or 6.5 and has crashed all the way down to 4.5. That's a massive move of 2 to 2.5 points toward Middle Tennessee. When you see that kind of movement, it's not casual bettors moving the line. That's sharp professional money coming in heavy on one side. The books have been forced to adjust significantly just to try to balance their exposure. Even at 4.5 at -131, the sharp money clearly believes there's still value on Middle Tennessee.
This is as close to a lock as you're going to find all year. I'm not saying Middle Tennessee is going to win outright, although I wouldn't be shocked if they did. What I'm saying is that getting 4.5 points with a home team that's been competitive in every game against a road favorite that struggles away from home and might be without their best offensive weapon is tremendous value. If this game comes down to a field goal or a touchdown, and based on Middle Tennessee's recent history it absolutely could, you're sitting pretty with those 4.5 points in your pocket.
I'm putting significant action on Middle Tennessee plus 4.5 at -131. This is one of my strongest plays of the week. Take the home dog and watch them compete.
His brilliance shows with a unit that ranks 80th in total yards given up and 92nd in yards per play
"Derek Mason is going to load the box and force them to beat him through the air"
Ask a superior team like Delaware how this strategy worked
"Vattiato can pick them apart if he's given time"
He will have plenty of time with an offensive line that ranks 123rd in sacks given up
"Middle Tennessee has the offensive balance to attack"
Yes, they are very balanced... rank 123rd in yards per rush and 122nd in yards per completion
"Their (JSU) offense is one dimensional"
Navy is one dimensional and they're 7-0 inside a conference that includes Memphis, USF, Tulane, North Texas, a combine 26-5 and all bowl eligible.
"This is a dangerous letdown spot for them. They just came off a 14 day layoff since their last game against Delaware on October 15th. Long layoffs can create rust, especially for young teams."
The best remedy for a young team off a bye is a great ground attack, and JSU is ranked 3rd in the nation. They may be 3-0 in conference but at 4-3 they have work to do to become bowl eligible. It's hard to imagine them not being motivated tonight.
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Found a few stones left unturned:
"Derek Mason is a defensive mastermind"
His brilliance shows with a unit that ranks 80th in total yards given up and 92nd in yards per play
"Derek Mason is going to load the box and force them to beat him through the air"
Ask a superior team like Delaware how this strategy worked
"Vattiato can pick them apart if he's given time"
He will have plenty of time with an offensive line that ranks 123rd in sacks given up
"Middle Tennessee has the offensive balance to attack"
Yes, they are very balanced... rank 123rd in yards per rush and 122nd in yards per completion
"Their (JSU) offense is one dimensional"
Navy is one dimensional and they're 7-0 inside a conference that includes Memphis, USF, Tulane, North Texas, a combine 26-5 and all bowl eligible.
"This is a dangerous letdown spot for them. They just came off a 14 day layoff since their last game against Delaware on October 15th. Long layoffs can create rust, especially for young teams."
The best remedy for a young team off a bye is a great ground attack, and JSU is ranked 3rd in the nation. They may be 3-0 in conference but at 4-3 they have work to do to become bowl eligible. It's hard to imagine them not being motivated tonight.
Honestly I didn't even read your writeup. I was just impressed on how much you were able to write for a shit ass game with two shit ass teams. Blindly tailed, thx either way on how it ends
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Honestly I didn't even read your writeup. I was just impressed on how much you were able to write for a shit ass game with two shit ass teams. Blindly tailed, thx either way on how it ends
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