NCAA wk 7

brackson  thanks man - GL this wk !

streak-king  

GoNoles ....thanks !.....GL to your Noles this week

ncdcbag

Area51  thx GL !

continuing with the Big 10.........

Wisconsin 24 Purdue (48)

Megalocks line 20

Sagarin 26

The first team in this big time matchup is the Wisconsin Badgers who are coming off one of the sloppiest games one could witness - a close loss to iowa at home - followed by a last sec win on the road at Nebraska which was strange if only because they outgained the Huskers 469-325 with solid QB play for a change.....D ranked #12 and have outscored their opponents 120-13 at home - although as we said they lost one of those games to Iowa and the other 3 were creampuffs....The second team in this big time matchup - Purdue - kinda sets up the same way - they will not be able to run the ball and without that they are not going to be able to mount a serious challenge not the type of team that Purdue can do some damage to....Also now missing their leading tackler which can't help....Smells like a Wisc cover but 24 is too many to lay in our opinion....Still think Purdue can provide a sneaky cover late in the year against a team in their area code keep an eye out.

Summary. No leanage. Calling for a 36-12 type game that seems right.

Rutgers OFF Indiana

WE WASTED 13 SECONDS THINKING ABOUT THIS GAME.

Summary. No.

Mega

Michigan 8.5 Michigan St (40.5)

Megalocks line - 8

Sagarin - 16.69 ........(#3 rated team vs #39)

This big time matchup is one of three that is going to decide the East Division.....Sparty/Ohio St/Michigan gonna get real and see who comes out on top over the coming weeks.

There are some harsh realities when looking at this game if you want to bet Sparty....Michigan has played a much tougher schedule (#28 vs #89) and looked a lot better while doing it. Michigan is a better running team. Michigan stops the run better. Michigan ranked #1 in 3rd down D. Michigan St ranked #9 in the big 10 running the football and #7 in the Big10 stopping the run. In contrast - last yr Mich St was #1 in stopping the run in the Big10 and #5 in stopping the run in the Big 10. sooooooooooooooo....by playing Michigan St you are hoping that Connor Cook can really play a fantastic game and essentially put the team on his back....He is very good...but that may be a little much to ask....Michigan rated #2 in pass efficiency D - not against a very good slate of QBs...But it will not be easy for Sparty.....Both teams have some injury concerns.....Always tough to lay this many points in a big rivalry game....Michigan St has not covered a game yet and finally the spread has adjusted to a somewhat realistic expectation of what Sparty is right now...heck even last wk seemed like a bargain laying only 12 or so vs Rutgers and they were life and death.......Think the sneaky play here may be the OVER.....Sparty has scored 24 every game....D a notch down from last yr - and one way or another - Michigan has scored 28+ their last 5 games.....Think the ball may be in the air more than we think.

Summary. Lean Michigan.....note what Sagarin thinks of this one.......not saying just saying..........Stronger lean OVER....makes the short list for the card. May officially add later.

mega

thanks man  GL to you - enjoy the big game !

 welcome to the forum - Glad you get something out of our threads - We try to help people out any way they can thankfully the picks have been working out but anything can happen any given week either or......GL !

Ohio St 17 Penn St (46.5)

Megalocks line 17

Sagarin 13

This big time matchup features two teams with one loss between them....Our gut tells us to take the points in this one but we have a couple of concerns with Penn St....Like we always say - this is not a pick em - you are catching 17 points - but nonetheless we are worried about....1) Penn St has played offenses ranked 101 66 53 115 112 31-without starting qb.....So how good is this #10 ranked D?? 2) top 2 rb and center are on the injury report so because this is a "cluster" of injuries we will do some more research and get clarity on who is gonna play if we can....Why does this matter?? Well Ohio St has demonstrated that they have a SOFT UNDERBELLY at times so if Penn St can run the ball effectively they have a real shot at the cover....relatively unknown budding STAR RB S Barkley looks great for Penn and after rushing for 115 on 12  carries then 195 on 22 carries and 2 td - he has been injured....Lynch is also banged up....Without a running game Penn St is dead in the water because their OL has had its moments and got better since the 10 sack DEBACLE vs Temple but is still inconsistent....Hackenpick has only thrown 2 int this yr after throwing 15 last yr - and he can only play a smart safe game if they get some balance on offense.....Ohio St has been mistake prone probably gonna keep getting better but still trying to figure how Maryland gashed them for 250 rushing wtf and previous to that gave up 400+Y to a banged up Indiana offense.

Summary. Lean Penn St. Going to wait on this one before deciding as noted above.

mega