Well done Sir keep the week streak rockin buddy, truly amazing!!!.
Feels like alot of digging this week but warming up to MSU/Iowa U 52.5. Dantionio is such a clock chewer haha. and if I go w that might as well throw in Iowa +3.5.
BOL and looking forward to what your magic Ouija board says this week!!!
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MEGA
Well done Sir keep the week streak rockin buddy, truly amazing!!!.
Feels like alot of digging this week but warming up to MSU/Iowa U 52.5. Dantionio is such a clock chewer haha. and if I go w that might as well throw in Iowa +3.5.
BOL and looking forward to what your magic Ouija board says this week!!!
Yo Mega hope evrating wuz Irie mon in Jamaica! Thanks for all the hard work and knowledge you put into these posts.broseph! Your are true a pro. Thoughts on WKU/SMISS -7.5 over 73. Tough top take the side here since both offenses can chuck it all over the place. I see more balance from SMISS offense. Really liking the the over here. Seeing 72.5 and 73's. Your thoughts bud? Also if you ever come to Philly hit me up on here so I can buy you a cheese steak and a few beers!
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Yo Mega hope evrating wuz Irie mon in Jamaica! Thanks for all the hard work and knowledge you put into these posts.broseph! Your are true a pro. Thoughts on WKU/SMISS -7.5 over 73. Tough top take the side here since both offenses can chuck it all over the place. I see more balance from SMISS offense. Really liking the the over here. Seeing 72.5 and 73's. Your thoughts bud? Also if you ever come to Philly hit me up on here so I can buy you a cheese steak and a few beers!
BG probably (most likely?) has an easier time to prepare defensively for NIU and the frosh QB (who a week ago was "...playing with Star Wars action figures..."), since he will be using NIU's same plays (there won't be a new playbook for the frosh QB) , and since one should expect an improved defensive effort in a championship game (improved tackling at first contact, tighter coverage, etc) then your TT U 28.5 seems a great play to me as well.I think it's a strong play.
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Great write up on the MAC Championship.
BG probably (most likely?) has an easier time to prepare defensively for NIU and the frosh QB (who a week ago was "...playing with Star Wars action figures..."), since he will be using NIU's same plays (there won't be a new playbook for the frosh QB) , and since one should expect an improved defensive effort in a championship game (improved tackling at first contact, tighter coverage, etc) then your TT U 28.5 seems a great play to me as well.I think it's a strong play.
Not sure we will have any new HOT TAKES on this one....We will say tho that having watched 9 Bama games this year and half of the Gators' games that we have a pretty good feel for both teams.
One thing that is clear about Florida. Effort. Intensity. QB Harris was struggling mightily last week vs Florida St - but at the end of the game - they had still only given up 304Y and Taylor had his usual quiet effective game on the ground 136Y - the difference was that Harris could not escape and make big plays with his feet and/or MATRICULATE down field when out of the pocket. The Florida St front was too much and sadly this is another bad matchup - in fact the worst for Florida - in that regard. Both Ds are excellent. You cannot put it past Florida to stay within 17 IMO with that defense and ability to create mistakes. Will not be laying 17 in this one.
You guys know we have been on the Bama train most of the year. Some people have not and are still not sold which is totally fine. Our SEC INSIDERS would like to point out that the last 2 times Bama game up less than 80Y rushing per game - they won the National Championship (79/game this yr). Not saying it will happen this yr -but this D is SICK and if you want to know "What has changed?" since last year like this psycho on Tw was screaming at me - their front 7 is elite - vs last yr IMO they were "just" very good....gave up 18 pts/game last yr and a ton through the air but this yr nobody has had time to do anything. This is a sermon for another time - but What Has Changed? Guy and Who Have They Played Guy? (#5 schedule - so there is that) are driving us nuts.
One thing that worries us is that it seemed a few weeks back that Alabama passing game was developing not so sure now - and do not think that they will be able to just pound Henry 40+ times and romp.....Have not been as critical of QB Coker as some but starting to think more and more that he might make a mistake or two in this one keeping it closer - at least for a while - than you may think.
Overall - Florida just sliding a bit with their weak QB play can only hold it together for so long with that amazing D and an offense that struggles for the most part. Florida -66 or so ATS last 4 games think we are getting some line value here just cannot play them given the matchup.
Summary. Think this is going to be a total pass for us. If you like Bama - maybe you try the Florida TT under but that seems a bit risky to us you know Florida is gonna create something at some point on D or offense. If you like Florida - your best bet might be to take the Bama TT under or Florida first half if you can get close to 10.
Mega
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SEC CHAMPIONSHIP
Alabama 17 Florida (40)
Megalocks line 14
Sagarin 13.5
Not sure we will have any new HOT TAKES on this one....We will say tho that having watched 9 Bama games this year and half of the Gators' games that we have a pretty good feel for both teams.
One thing that is clear about Florida. Effort. Intensity. QB Harris was struggling mightily last week vs Florida St - but at the end of the game - they had still only given up 304Y and Taylor had his usual quiet effective game on the ground 136Y - the difference was that Harris could not escape and make big plays with his feet and/or MATRICULATE down field when out of the pocket. The Florida St front was too much and sadly this is another bad matchup - in fact the worst for Florida - in that regard. Both Ds are excellent. You cannot put it past Florida to stay within 17 IMO with that defense and ability to create mistakes. Will not be laying 17 in this one.
You guys know we have been on the Bama train most of the year. Some people have not and are still not sold which is totally fine. Our SEC INSIDERS would like to point out that the last 2 times Bama game up less than 80Y rushing per game - they won the National Championship (79/game this yr). Not saying it will happen this yr -but this D is SICK and if you want to know "What has changed?" since last year like this psycho on Tw was screaming at me - their front 7 is elite - vs last yr IMO they were "just" very good....gave up 18 pts/game last yr and a ton through the air but this yr nobody has had time to do anything. This is a sermon for another time - but What Has Changed? Guy and Who Have They Played Guy? (#5 schedule - so there is that) are driving us nuts.
One thing that worries us is that it seemed a few weeks back that Alabama passing game was developing not so sure now - and do not think that they will be able to just pound Henry 40+ times and romp.....Have not been as critical of QB Coker as some but starting to think more and more that he might make a mistake or two in this one keeping it closer - at least for a while - than you may think.
Overall - Florida just sliding a bit with their weak QB play can only hold it together for so long with that amazing D and an offense that struggles for the most part. Florida -66 or so ATS last 4 games think we are getting some line value here just cannot play them given the matchup.
Summary. Think this is going to be a total pass for us. If you like Bama - maybe you try the Florida TT under but that seems a bit risky to us you know Florida is gonna create something at some point on D or offense. If you like Florida - your best bet might be to take the Bama TT under or Florida first half if you can get close to 10.
jroc ya mon !....Like the WK total over a bit but i always struggle with those high totals....Thx for the offer re Philly that sounds good bro GL !
lbObPeb
prophet thanks!
sharp
relax - thanks buddy ! ....Ya think that NIU TT under seems like the way to go in that one have it identified as the highest probability play in that game just not sure it is good enough for an official hit. GL man !
Nickel Dont Overthink It Guy - love it
Tien
BYU - will get to the Big10 today
BWS ,,,,yes you are a FunBelt machine man....So is that dude Puffkit what a freak ....LeFevour was one heck of a MAC QB bro.
tonesparkz
puffkit - thanks for all your FunBelt intel you shared with us this yr - Like UGA said - it is much appreciated - and frankly - we owe a lot to so many different people who have shared their knowledge of under the radar teams - that is what makes this thread a good read
Shark, Judge....Cannot disagree with BG....I am the kiss of death for favs but really like BG if you got em at -9 and the first half bet seems pretty good too
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jroc ya mon !....Like the WK total over a bit but i always struggle with those high totals....Thx for the offer re Philly that sounds good bro GL !
lbObPeb
prophet thanks!
sharp
relax - thanks buddy ! ....Ya think that NIU TT under seems like the way to go in that one have it identified as the highest probability play in that game just not sure it is good enough for an official hit. GL man !
Nickel Dont Overthink It Guy - love it
Tien
BYU - will get to the Big10 today
BWS ,,,,yes you are a FunBelt machine man....So is that dude Puffkit what a freak ....LeFevour was one heck of a MAC QB bro.
tonesparkz
puffkit - thanks for all your FunBelt intel you shared with us this yr - Like UGA said - it is much appreciated - and frankly - we owe a lot to so many different people who have shared their knowledge of under the radar teams - that is what makes this thread a good read
Shark, Judge....Cannot disagree with BG....I am the kiss of death for favs but really like BG if you got em at -9 and the first half bet seems pretty good too
Freaks Sickos Who-Have-They-Played?-GuyHello again everyone. Managed to pull together a 3-2 record last week to bring the YTD total over 70%. 12/12 winning weeks. THANKS to Covers Nation for the banter, discussion and feedback. Has been a memorable season BUT always remember - past record means NOTHING....NCAA football handicapping can be a cruel mistress.....Anyone can go on an epic heater from here on out so keep the faith - keep grinding - and most of all play safe ! GLmega
So Mega. Where do you turn your attention to after the bowl games?
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Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Freaks Sickos Who-Have-They-Played?-GuyHello again everyone. Managed to pull together a 3-2 record last week to bring the YTD total over 70%. 12/12 winning weeks. THANKS to Covers Nation for the banter, discussion and feedback. Has been a memorable season BUT always remember - past record means NOTHING....NCAA football handicapping can be a cruel mistress.....Anyone can go on an epic heater from here on out so keep the faith - keep grinding - and most of all play safe ! GLmega
So Mega. Where do you turn your attention to after the bowl games?
I have a capping question for you, I understand all of your picks are done on a weekly basis, but I was wondering if you, or any other cappers pick certain teams and either tail or fade them every week? I started the season taking florida, but that all changed when Grier went down. The last 6-7 weeks i have consistently backed Oregon, Tennessee, New Mexico and San Diego State. I know youve liked Washington State and Bama. I know its tough to blindly follow a team but if your on the right teams you could be hitting 10-2.
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I have a capping question for you, I understand all of your picks are done on a weekly basis, but I was wondering if you, or any other cappers pick certain teams and either tail or fade them every week? I started the season taking florida, but that all changed when Grier went down. The last 6-7 weeks i have consistently backed Oregon, Tennessee, New Mexico and San Diego State. I know youve liked Washington State and Bama. I know its tough to blindly follow a team but if your on the right teams you could be hitting 10-2.
Right now I think that the best value on futures play is Michigan State winning the National Championship. With Alabama and Oklahoma looking like a lock to be in the playoffs, Michigan State still has to beat Iowa to get in. The reason I like Michigan St is because other than Watson, Connor Cook is the best QB in the playoffs. Michigan State really should be undefeated, but one thing they were missing this season was a strong running game, but ever since their Oline has gotten healthy their Running game is noticeably better and they fared very well against Ohio State's defensive line, who its hard to argue that they arent the best Dline in CFB. Also Shaq Chalouhn and the rest of Sparty's defense has looked very good. Do you think it's the best time to play Sparty? I know they arent in yet, but that's part of the reason I like them, also Clemson could definitely lose to North Carolina, which makes mehesitate taking them.
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Right now I think that the best value on futures play is Michigan State winning the National Championship. With Alabama and Oklahoma looking like a lock to be in the playoffs, Michigan State still has to beat Iowa to get in. The reason I like Michigan St is because other than Watson, Connor Cook is the best QB in the playoffs. Michigan State really should be undefeated, but one thing they were missing this season was a strong running game, but ever since their Oline has gotten healthy their Running game is noticeably better and they fared very well against Ohio State's defensive line, who its hard to argue that they arent the best Dline in CFB. Also Shaq Chalouhn and the rest of Sparty's defense has looked very good. Do you think it's the best time to play Sparty? I know they arent in yet, but that's part of the reason I like them, also Clemson could definitely lose to North Carolina, which makes mehesitate taking them.
if you smeared a big pile of shiit on your face or arm would you wipe it off with a dry piece of tissue or paper? think about that before you use toilet paper next time
just because someone says it's the way to go doesn't mean it is
.
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Quote Originally Posted by mbiddy:
Mega, what brand toilet paper do you use?
Also, GL this weekend cuz!!!
he uses wipes hopefully, so should everyone
if you smeared a big pile of shiit on your face or arm would you wipe it off with a dry piece of tissue or paper? think about that before you use toilet paper next time
just because someone says it's the way to go doesn't mean it is
Quite a discrepancy between the Megalocks line and what Sagarin has come up with...Lean to Michigan St just not sure if we are gonna pound this bad boy or not
Michigan St coming into this game playing really well like the Hawkeyes...Sparty has covered 3 straight and only given up 7 14 16 the last 3 games.....Blew out Penn St on paper but were the beneficiary of +3 in turnover margin and only outgained them 436-418....No doubt we love Cook at QB and the HC BUT - Iowa HC is one of the few we put in the same area code as Dantonio and their QB Beathard has only thrown 3 int all year....You can break down the stats all you want - but the categories that we look at - Iowa has the advantage - at least statistically - in over 2/3 offensively and defensively....What we worry most about with Michigan St is that this is not your daddy's Sparty - they are not a very good rushing team- #8 in the Big10 and #12 YP rush sooooo......that is a very telling indicator to us - especially when looking at the Iowa D - that Sparty may be a bit more one dimensional than we want to see....The good news is that Iowa struggles to get PENETRATION last in the Big10 in TFL and Iowa has given up 27 35 20 20 last 4 games were fortunate to get past the Huskers outgained 433-250 but were +3 in turnovers.
Mich St has scored 20+ in every game but one - vs Ohio St. Iowa has scored 27+ in every game except one. People underestimate their ability to score one way or another.
Summary. Lean to Sparty at -3 or better. Do not ask about -3.5. NO. Lean to the over as well at 51 or better. Still not an official play need to sleep on it.
mega
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Big 10 Championship
Michigan St 3.5 Iowa (51)
Megalocks line 4
Sagarin 1.5
Quite a discrepancy between the Megalocks line and what Sagarin has come up with...Lean to Michigan St just not sure if we are gonna pound this bad boy or not
Michigan St coming into this game playing really well like the Hawkeyes...Sparty has covered 3 straight and only given up 7 14 16 the last 3 games.....Blew out Penn St on paper but were the beneficiary of +3 in turnover margin and only outgained them 436-418....No doubt we love Cook at QB and the HC BUT - Iowa HC is one of the few we put in the same area code as Dantonio and their QB Beathard has only thrown 3 int all year....You can break down the stats all you want - but the categories that we look at - Iowa has the advantage - at least statistically - in over 2/3 offensively and defensively....What we worry most about with Michigan St is that this is not your daddy's Sparty - they are not a very good rushing team- #8 in the Big10 and #12 YP rush sooooo......that is a very telling indicator to us - especially when looking at the Iowa D - that Sparty may be a bit more one dimensional than we want to see....The good news is that Iowa struggles to get PENETRATION last in the Big10 in TFL and Iowa has given up 27 35 20 20 last 4 games were fortunate to get past the Huskers outgained 433-250 but were +3 in turnovers.
Mich St has scored 20+ in every game but one - vs Ohio St. Iowa has scored 27+ in every game except one. People underestimate their ability to score one way or another.
Summary. Lean to Sparty at -3 or better. Do not ask about -3.5. NO. Lean to the over as well at 51 or better. Still not an official play need to sleep on it.
Mega, what brand toilet paper do you use? Also, GL this weekend cuz!!!
he uses wipes hopefully, so should everyoneif you smeared a big pile of shiit on your face or arm would you wipe it off with a dry piece of tissue or paper? think about that before you use toilet paper next timejust because
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:
Quote Originally Posted by mbiddy:
Mega, what brand toilet paper do you use? Also, GL this weekend cuz!!!
he uses wipes hopefully, so should everyoneif you smeared a big pile of shiit on your face or arm would you wipe it off with a dry piece of tissue or paper? think about that before you use toilet paper next timejust because someone says it's the way to go doesn't mean it is
Tu che, Wahoo. I have been saying that for years! Haha...I have been saying that forever! But, back to Mega's preferences. I am wondering if perhaps, due to his ties to France as a Canadian, he uses a bidet. If so, it is just another area in which he is just a bit more refined than the masses.
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Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:
Quote Originally Posted by mbiddy:
Mega, what brand toilet paper do you use? Also, GL this weekend cuz!!!
he uses wipes hopefully, so should everyoneif you smeared a big pile of shiit on your face or arm would you wipe it off with a dry piece of tissue or paper? think about that before you use toilet paper next timejust because
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:
Quote Originally Posted by mbiddy:
Mega, what brand toilet paper do you use? Also, GL this weekend cuz!!!
he uses wipes hopefully, so should everyoneif you smeared a big pile of shiit on your face or arm would you wipe it off with a dry piece of tissue or paper? think about that before you use toilet paper next timejust because someone says it's the way to go doesn't mean it is
Tu che, Wahoo. I have been saying that for years! Haha...I have been saying that forever! But, back to Mega's preferences. I am wondering if perhaps, due to his ties to France as a Canadian, he uses a bidet. If so, it is just another area in which he is just a bit more refined than the masses.
Beathard is a stud. If ruddock was still qb they would have 2-3 losses for sure. Beathard taking them to the promised land ala joe kane. They were in control most of the neb game, so yards descrepency is misleading.
Sparty great as a dog but what about as a fav?
Fading my hawkeyes
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Beathard is a stud. If ruddock was still qb they would have 2-3 losses for sure. Beathard taking them to the promised land ala joe kane. They were in control most of the neb game, so yards descrepency is misleading.
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), since he will be using NIU's same plays (there won't be a new playbook for the frosh QB) , and since one should expect an improved defensive effort in a championship game (improved tackling at first contact, tighter coverage, etc) then your TT U 28.5 seems a great play to me as well.I think it's a strong play.
Dont Overthink It Guy - love it
,,,,yes you are a FunBelt machine man....So is that dude Puffkit what a freak 
last in the Big10 in TFL and Iowa has given up 27 35 20 20 last 4 games were fortunate to get past the Huskers outgained 433-250 but were +3 in turnovers.
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