hey buddy - definite lean to fla st but 99% sure gonna pass - miami next and who knows if they shut down Winston with the minor injury - Va has just not developed the way we had hoped....I think 20 would still be a decent lay on fla st just cant do it yet - GL
hey buddy - definite lean to fla st but 99% sure gonna pass - miami next and who knows if they shut down Winston with the minor injury - Va has just not developed the way we had hoped....I think 20 would still be a decent lay on fla st just cant do it yet - GL
Tough call on the side - Ohio going to start Vick again who is a big improvement over Sprague at QB at least stats wise and D seems to be a lot better at home....Buff can score tho...Just not sure their D can be trusted even off last game improvement under new HC vs Chips....Our pal Veal Licata is still stroking it for Buffalo 20 TD passes and they have a nice running game - the line just seems about perfect to us at -3.5 or -4. Buff does show a couple decent games in MAC - close loss to Chips and 1 pt loss to BG on the road.....of course there is that little loss to E Michigan wtf.....A lot of back and forth BS to say we are not playing the side but lean to the over.
Tough call on the side - Ohio going to start Vick again who is a big improvement over Sprague at QB at least stats wise and D seems to be a lot better at home....Buff can score tho...Just not sure their D can be trusted even off last game improvement under new HC vs Chips....Our pal Veal Licata is still stroking it for Buffalo 20 TD passes and they have a nice running game - the line just seems about perfect to us at -3.5 or -4. Buff does show a couple decent games in MAC - close loss to Chips and 1 pt loss to BG on the road.....of course there is that little loss to E Michigan wtf.....A lot of back and forth BS to say we are not playing the side but lean to the over.
Some value here in the dog IMO - just do not like the matchup of NIU run game - ranked #12 - QB leading rusher - and the Ball St run D - yes they played army - but really have had issues stopping the run and are ranked #93....Ball has been a lot better with new QB Milas - lost close one to WM then beat CM on road and beat Akron - has 0 int in 116A.....NIU cannot be trusted as road favs imo against a well coached team - only 54 yards passing vs EMichigan wtf and also had close 3 pt win at home to kent.....We may look at this one for an official play if the line goes freaky freaky all night long tomorrow and hits 3.5/4.
Some value here in the dog IMO - just do not like the matchup of NIU run game - ranked #12 - QB leading rusher - and the Ball St run D - yes they played army - but really have had issues stopping the run and are ranked #93....Ball has been a lot better with new QB Milas - lost close one to WM then beat CM on road and beat Akron - has 0 int in 116A.....NIU cannot be trusted as road favs imo against a well coached team - only 54 yards passing vs EMichigan wtf and also had close 3 pt win at home to kent.....We may look at this one for an official play if the line goes freaky freaky all night long tomorrow and hits 3.5/4.
This game just does not turn the crank for us - Line could be 17...20...28....whatever we have no idea....What we do know is what everyone knows - Clemson D is excellent - given up 0 17 13 6 last 4 games....WF offense blows chunks....scored 10 3 7 17 last 4 games - Bookies calling for a 31-10 type final.....That looks absolutely about right to us.
This game just does not turn the crank for us - Line could be 17...20...28....whatever we have no idea....What we do know is what everyone knows - Clemson D is excellent - given up 0 17 13 6 last 4 games....WF offense blows chunks....scored 10 3 7 17 last 4 games - Bookies calling for a 31-10 type final.....That looks absolutely about right to us.
Our inital reaction was to load the boat on Temple - but as only MEGALOCKS WORLDWIDE research staff can give - and give until it hurts - intense scrutiny of Temple's stats have revealed a shocker - last 2 games vs EC and UCF - they gained a TOTAL of 21 first downs - before that did nothing other than a few big plays vs houston - and the last 2 games have lost the yardage edge 466-182 and 428-135 What in the SAM HELL is going on?? we knew it was unlikely they could spank ECarolina 20-10 without help - and yes they were +5 in turnovers including a scoop and score - and managed only 135Y and still won by 10....The point? Have not played well since early October and while memphis is no sure thing - cannot play a dog that is just struggling so much on offense and memphis has pretty much done all that has been asked of them all yr - close lost to houston when turning it over 5 times but look really good....So while Value Guy may pound temple - and maybe a winning play - we think we know now why the line is 7 and our ratings are probably a bit off.
summary
side - no leanage
total - no leanage; would love a temple TT under 24 - will keep tabs on it - right now 22.5
Our inital reaction was to load the boat on Temple - but as only MEGALOCKS WORLDWIDE research staff can give - and give until it hurts - intense scrutiny of Temple's stats have revealed a shocker - last 2 games vs EC and UCF - they gained a TOTAL of 21 first downs - before that did nothing other than a few big plays vs houston - and the last 2 games have lost the yardage edge 466-182 and 428-135 What in the SAM HELL is going on?? we knew it was unlikely they could spank ECarolina 20-10 without help - and yes they were +5 in turnovers including a scoop and score - and managed only 135Y and still won by 10....The point? Have not played well since early October and while memphis is no sure thing - cannot play a dog that is just struggling so much on offense and memphis has pretty much done all that has been asked of them all yr - close lost to houston when turning it over 5 times but look really good....So while Value Guy may pound temple - and maybe a winning play - we think we know now why the line is 7 and our ratings are probably a bit off.
summary
side - no leanage
total - no leanage; would love a temple TT under 24 - will keep tabs on it - right now 22.5
This game just does not turn the crank for us - Line could be 17...20...28....whatever we have no idea....What we do know is what everyone knows - Clemson D is excellent - given up 0 17 13 6 last 4 games....WF offense blows chunks....scored 10 3 7 17 last 4 games - Bookies calling for a 31-10 type final.....That looks absolutely about right to us.
summary
no leanage
Probably for the best...Clemson announced today that stud freshman QB Watson is "available to play"...no one is exactly sure what that means, but he wasn't even expected to dress for this game last week.
My guess is that he gets a few drives in garbage time or nothing at all because they want to rest him 10 more days until GT, but he could blow up the under because he brings so much more to the table on O than Stoudt.
This game just does not turn the crank for us - Line could be 17...20...28....whatever we have no idea....What we do know is what everyone knows - Clemson D is excellent - given up 0 17 13 6 last 4 games....WF offense blows chunks....scored 10 3 7 17 last 4 games - Bookies calling for a 31-10 type final.....That looks absolutely about right to us.
summary
no leanage
Probably for the best...Clemson announced today that stud freshman QB Watson is "available to play"...no one is exactly sure what that means, but he wasn't even expected to dress for this game last week.
My guess is that he gets a few drives in garbage time or nothing at all because they want to rest him 10 more days until GT, but he could blow up the under because he brings so much more to the table on O than Stoudt.
Some value here in the dog IMO - just do not like the matchup of NIU run game - ranked #12 - QB leading rusher - and the Ball St run D - yes they played army - but really have had issues stopping the run and are ranked #93....Ball has been a lot better with new QB Milas - lost close one to WM then beat CM on road and beat Akron - has 0 int in 116A.....NIU cannot be trusted as road favs imo against a well coached team - only 54 yards passing vs EMichigan wtf and also had close 3 pt win at home to kent.....We may look at this one for an official play if the line goes freaky freaky all night long tomorrow and hits 3.5/4.
summary
side - lean ball st
total - no leanage
Like Temple - Ball wins are a bit fraudulent - look at +9 TO in CMU and Akron wins....
Some value here in the dog IMO - just do not like the matchup of NIU run game - ranked #12 - QB leading rusher - and the Ball St run D - yes they played army - but really have had issues stopping the run and are ranked #93....Ball has been a lot better with new QB Milas - lost close one to WM then beat CM on road and beat Akron - has 0 int in 116A.....NIU cannot be trusted as road favs imo against a well coached team - only 54 yards passing vs EMichigan wtf and also had close 3 pt win at home to kent.....We may look at this one for an official play if the line goes freaky freaky all night long tomorrow and hits 3.5/4.
summary
side - lean ball st
total - no leanage
Like Temple - Ball wins are a bit fraudulent - look at +9 TO in CMU and Akron wins....
Bandos GREAT point about Ball St - very nice catch on the +9 in t/o margin - I was hoping for +6 or +7 based on "name" NIU team....prob gonna pass. GL ! keep the gems coming
next pick
Wyoming / Utah St over 45
1. Utah St has put up 1100 yds last 2 wks including almost 700 last wk on the road vs fresno - yes they have a horrid D - but 700Y....And as MEGALOCKS likes to say - injuries often overrated - last wk we noted that Wy was without top 2 RB but had maybe found a decent 3rd guy - well he went for 280Y rushing and 2 TD last wk at over 12 yds a carry ! QB is a decent senior.....Nice balanced offense - last 5 Wy totals are 70 66 47 76 62....Their D is banged up and really brutal get no pressure on qB and cant cover and that is not an ideal scenario....Utah St down to their 4th QB - all he did was go 14/15 team well over 400Y at Hawaii....Now the D gave up over 400 as well including over 300 to hawaii qb wtf and they are traveling back from hawaii may or may not mean anything....struggled with maybe taking wyoming here - they need to beat either boise or utah st or both of them to get bowl eligible - They are well coached and full of confidence see them doing their part to get to 45 for sure - utah st D statistically and in real life good - but they are not shut down spank your mama good - guess how many times they have held opponent to single digits <crickets>....Not one time - 38 20 24 21 20 16 16 20 14 ....We think they are indeed GOOD but not great - #5 in turnover margin has helped....Weather check....Sunny and little wind mid 50s....Think both teams get into 20s just hope it is not 22-21.
what worries us?? well wyoming has played lower scoring games at home this yr big time than on the road - that was not necessarily the case last yr....but who knows.....Just think their off clicking and D is wretched that will help us get there..
Bandos GREAT point about Ball St - very nice catch on the +9 in t/o margin - I was hoping for +6 or +7 based on "name" NIU team....prob gonna pass. GL ! keep the gems coming
next pick
Wyoming / Utah St over 45
1. Utah St has put up 1100 yds last 2 wks including almost 700 last wk on the road vs fresno - yes they have a horrid D - but 700Y....And as MEGALOCKS likes to say - injuries often overrated - last wk we noted that Wy was without top 2 RB but had maybe found a decent 3rd guy - well he went for 280Y rushing and 2 TD last wk at over 12 yds a carry ! QB is a decent senior.....Nice balanced offense - last 5 Wy totals are 70 66 47 76 62....Their D is banged up and really brutal get no pressure on qB and cant cover and that is not an ideal scenario....Utah St down to their 4th QB - all he did was go 14/15 team well over 400Y at Hawaii....Now the D gave up over 400 as well including over 300 to hawaii qb wtf and they are traveling back from hawaii may or may not mean anything....struggled with maybe taking wyoming here - they need to beat either boise or utah st or both of them to get bowl eligible - They are well coached and full of confidence see them doing their part to get to 45 for sure - utah st D statistically and in real life good - but they are not shut down spank your mama good - guess how many times they have held opponent to single digits <crickets>....Not one time - 38 20 24 21 20 16 16 20 14 ....We think they are indeed GOOD but not great - #5 in turnover margin has helped....Weather check....Sunny and little wind mid 50s....Think both teams get into 20s just hope it is not 22-21.
what worries us?? well wyoming has played lower scoring games at home this yr big time than on the road - that was not necessarily the case last yr....but who knows.....Just think their off clicking and D is wretched that will help us get there..
Bandos GREAT point about Ball St - very nice catch on the +9 in t/o margin - I was hoping for +6 or +7 based on "name" NIU team....prob gonna pass. GL ! keep the gems coming
next pick
Wyoming / Utah St over 45
1. Utah St has put up 1100 yds last 2 wks including almost 700 last wk on the road vs fresno - yes they have a horrid D - but 700Y....And as MEGALOCKS likes to say - injuries often overrated - last wk we noted that Wy was without top 2 RB but had maybe found a decent 3rd guy - well he went for 280Y rushing and 2 TD last wk at over 12 yds a carry ! QB is a decent senior.....Nice balanced offense - last 5 Wy totals are 70 66 47 76 62....Their D is banged up and really brutal get no pressure on qB and cant cover and that is not an ideal scenario....Utah St down to their 4th QB - all he did was go 14/15 team well over 400Y at Hawaii....Now the D gave up over 400 as well including over 300 to hawaii qb wtf and they are traveling back from hawaii may or may not mean anything....struggled with maybe taking wyoming here - they need to beat either boise or utah st or both of them to get bowl eligible - They are well coached and full of confidence see them doing their part to get to 45 for sure - utah st D statistically and in real life good - but they are not shut down spank your mama good - guess how many times they have held opponent to single digits ....Not one time - 38 20 24 21 20 16 16 20 14 ....We think they are indeed GOOD but not great - #5 in turnover margin has helped....Weather check....Sunny and little wind mid 50s....Think both teams get into 20s just hope it is not 22-21.
what worries us?? well wyoming has played lower scoring games at home this yr big time than on the road - that was not necessarily the case last yr....but who knows.....Just think their off clicking and D is wretched that will help us get there..
GL mega
hmmm, may be on the over as well. Already locked Utah st -6, stupidly bought hook but I despise 6.5 line for some reason always feel more comfortable buying it to 6 same with 4.5 just something about those 2 lines lol.
Bandos GREAT point about Ball St - very nice catch on the +9 in t/o margin - I was hoping for +6 or +7 based on "name" NIU team....prob gonna pass. GL ! keep the gems coming
next pick
Wyoming / Utah St over 45
1. Utah St has put up 1100 yds last 2 wks including almost 700 last wk on the road vs fresno - yes they have a horrid D - but 700Y....And as MEGALOCKS likes to say - injuries often overrated - last wk we noted that Wy was without top 2 RB but had maybe found a decent 3rd guy - well he went for 280Y rushing and 2 TD last wk at over 12 yds a carry ! QB is a decent senior.....Nice balanced offense - last 5 Wy totals are 70 66 47 76 62....Their D is banged up and really brutal get no pressure on qB and cant cover and that is not an ideal scenario....Utah St down to their 4th QB - all he did was go 14/15 team well over 400Y at Hawaii....Now the D gave up over 400 as well including over 300 to hawaii qb wtf and they are traveling back from hawaii may or may not mean anything....struggled with maybe taking wyoming here - they need to beat either boise or utah st or both of them to get bowl eligible - They are well coached and full of confidence see them doing their part to get to 45 for sure - utah st D statistically and in real life good - but they are not shut down spank your mama good - guess how many times they have held opponent to single digits ....Not one time - 38 20 24 21 20 16 16 20 14 ....We think they are indeed GOOD but not great - #5 in turnover margin has helped....Weather check....Sunny and little wind mid 50s....Think both teams get into 20s just hope it is not 22-21.
what worries us?? well wyoming has played lower scoring games at home this yr big time than on the road - that was not necessarily the case last yr....but who knows.....Just think their off clicking and D is wretched that will help us get there..
GL mega
hmmm, may be on the over as well. Already locked Utah st -6, stupidly bought hook but I despise 6.5 line for some reason always feel more comfortable buying it to 6 same with 4.5 just something about those 2 lines lol.
Definite lean to the fav here - NC St started like a house on fire scoring 24 46 49 42 41.....followed by 10 14 18 24....Played a decent game on the road last wk.....GT on fire tho coming off 2 nice ACC wins 91-38 combined with a QB that can MATRICULATE - 14 TD passes to complement the run game....too bad they had that 2 game hiccup mid-season vs duke unc....This is one team we underestimated at the start of the yr - had some teams right - some wrong - did not think qb would be this lights out maybe best there in a while and seem to be scrappier than normal.....Just cannot lay the 3.5/4 line seems fair based on our ratings.
Definite lean to the fav here - NC St started like a house on fire scoring 24 46 49 42 41.....followed by 10 14 18 24....Played a decent game on the road last wk.....GT on fire tho coming off 2 nice ACC wins 91-38 combined with a QB that can MATRICULATE - 14 TD passes to complement the run game....too bad they had that 2 game hiccup mid-season vs duke unc....This is one team we underestimated at the start of the yr - had some teams right - some wrong - did not think qb would be this lights out maybe best there in a while and seem to be scrappier than normal.....Just cannot lay the 3.5/4 line seems fair based on our ratings.
Not a game we are going to get involved with....Fla St can just dominate at times just a bit inconsistent - have miami game next....Virginia not getting enough points for us to be interested and would need 16.5 to play fla st which is not happening obviously....Va 3 straight losses SU and ATS after the bye what in the SAM HELL this is yr 5 under London thought they might be showing improvement this yr especially off the decent showings in september to start the season...A team that cannot be trusted and D seems a bit overrated as we suspected yes good - but not good enough to keep this one interesting probably
Not a game we are going to get involved with....Fla St can just dominate at times just a bit inconsistent - have miami game next....Virginia not getting enough points for us to be interested and would need 16.5 to play fla st which is not happening obviously....Va 3 straight losses SU and ATS after the bye what in the SAM HELL this is yr 5 under London thought they might be showing improvement this yr especially off the decent showings in september to start the season...A team that cannot be trusted and D seems a bit overrated as we suspected yes good - but not good enough to keep this one interesting probably
Ratings suggest we may actually see value again in duke - as we have noted - they just find ways to win and are so well coached so even if you cannot back them they are a very tough team to fade....10-3-1 ATS last yr and 5-2 this yr.....Given the state of Cuse football right now with all the injuries and youth - this looks like another good spot - cannot take Cuse - however - what we will say - and these are just numbers but duke has now been outgained in EVERY conference game this yr 426-264 483-373 465-334 594-438 and won 3 of those games - does not mean they cannot win this wk by 21 - it just means that we have to be careful backing as a road fav - getting steamed in the yardage battle on a weekly basis is not a great long term recipe.
Ratings suggest we may actually see value again in duke - as we have noted - they just find ways to win and are so well coached so even if you cannot back them they are a very tough team to fade....10-3-1 ATS last yr and 5-2 this yr.....Given the state of Cuse football right now with all the injuries and youth - this looks like another good spot - cannot take Cuse - however - what we will say - and these are just numbers but duke has now been outgained in EVERY conference game this yr 426-264 483-373 465-334 594-438 and won 3 of those games - does not mean they cannot win this wk by 21 - it just means that we have to be careful backing as a road fav - getting steamed in the yardage battle on a weekly basis is not a great long term recipe.
Line looks about right to us - as does the total - Really like the way both teams compete - now just unsure how Louisville comes back off the Fla St meltdown and goes on the road to face a 6 win team that will not be intimidated or outhustled....BC off a nice road win at VT - a tough place to win even when VT not very good - QB has the most rushing yds of any qB in ncaa we think - almost 1000 and 9 TD wowza - over 100 last wk...Pass D a bit vulnerable - we see this one as a tossup and might be tempted to look at BC if we got 4+
summary
no leanage
UP NEXT - BIG 10
Gotta get ready for day - will check in later you freaks
Line looks about right to us - as does the total - Really like the way both teams compete - now just unsure how Louisville comes back off the Fla St meltdown and goes on the road to face a 6 win team that will not be intimidated or outhustled....BC off a nice road win at VT - a tough place to win even when VT not very good - QB has the most rushing yds of any qB in ncaa we think - almost 1000 and 9 TD wowza - over 100 last wk...Pass D a bit vulnerable - we see this one as a tossup and might be tempted to look at BC if we got 4+
summary
no leanage
UP NEXT - BIG 10
Gotta get ready for day - will check in later you freaks
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