NCAA Week Three Ponderings

Friday, Sept. 12th

ARIZONA -1' vs. Kansas St. - Arizona is looking to avenge last season's 31-7 beatdown in Manhattan, and they look like a much improved team. I have no idea what to make of K St. They haven't been the same ever since they lost starting RB Dylan Edwards the first time he touched the ball in the Week 0 loss to Iowa St. They're lucky they're not 0-3, but they come into this game as a dog for the first time this season. Whether the dog has any bite left remains to be seen.

Saturday, Sept. 13th - early games

Clemson -3' at GEORGIA TECH - The Tigers have dominated this series, winning nine straight (7-1 ATS), and there's value in this line after they had their hands full with Troy last week, a week after losing at home to LSU. The Yellow Jackets are a dangerous dog though. Last season they ended Miami's unbeaten season, and took Georgia to eight overtimes in a 44-42 loss. QB  Haynes King was held out of last week's blowout win over Gardner Webb with a lower leg injury and his status for this game bears watching.

Oklahoma -24' at TEMPLE - Sooners are off a huge home win over Michigan, with another huge home game vs. Auburn on deck, so this is a potential letdown spot. Temple has been a downtrodden program the last few years, but new head coach K.C. Keeler is a proven winner. While an outright win here is unlikely, the Owls could hang around a while.

ALABAMA -20' vs. Wisconsin - Crimson Tide won in a rout last year in Madison, 42-10, and the Badgers seem overmatched here as well. 'Bama rebounded nicely from their upset loss at Florida St. with a 73-0 shellacking of ULM. They hope to have WR Ryan Williams back this week (concussion) and need to make a statement here with a road trip to Georgia up next.

Memphis -4' at TROY - Second straight road game for the Tigers, who are off a 38-16 win at Georgia St. (a game in which they only led 17-16 at the half), and have a huge home game with Arkansas on deck, with playoff implications. In between is this tricky little encounter with the Trojans, who are out to avenge a 38-17 loss a year ago, and who gave Clemson all they could handle last week in Death Valley, before losing 27-16. This line seems suspiciously low.

Nice write ups and recaps with look ahead situations, A great read every week ,  small lean to K-state,  other games no read temple and badgers with there grind it out offense could hang around, what’s your read on the Thursday nights NC state vs wake forest game, slight lean to  wake forest for me & appreciate the work U put in 

Im playing K State. The Troy game definitely caught my eye but not sure I want to go there after the battle they just went through. I went w the same lookahead spot, but other side of it playing against Auburn this week. South Alabama is a pretty fiesty dog I think they can hang around 

I won't be on NC State as chalk that's for sure. Went against them last week vs. Virginia. Cavs should've won that game. Don't really have a feel for Wake, but they could rise up here before the home crowd in a nationally televised game. But I tend to avoid weeknight games and won't be touching this one. BOL!

@Yanasaur

 You could be right about Auburn. They will probably play pretty conservative in this one. But I was impressed with the Tigers when they won at Baylor. They dominated in the trenches and will have a sizeable advantage there in this one as well.

AUBURN -24' vs. South Alabama - Yanasaur may be on to something here. For one, the spread seems a mite inflated, and the Jaguars took a good Tulane team down to the wire last week, losing on a failed two point conversion, 33-31. It's also Auburn's homecoming game, and it's been my experience over the years that taking home chalk in those games can be risky business. The Tigers are the bigger, stronger, faster team no doubt, but all they want to do here is get out with a win and go into Norman healthy next week.

Saturday afternoon games

Usc -21 at PURDUE - To say USC doesn't travel well under HC Lincoln Riley is an understatement. The Trojans are a money burning 3-11 ATS as road chalk, including 0-5 ATS in different time zones (0-4 last season in their first year in the Big Ten). Barry Odom has done a complete rebuild with the Boilermakers, and has them off to a 2-0 start, but shit's about to get real. Their schedule is brutal from here on out.

Georgia -3' at TENNESSEE - Bulldogs are on an 8-0 series run, have covered six straight meetings and have won the last four in Knoxville by an average score of 41-10! But that doesn't mean anything this season. Georgia's offensive line is banged up right now with a lot of moving parts, and QB Gunnar Stockton is facing his first big test. Vols are missing both starting corners so a consistent pass rush is a must.

Pittsburgh -7 at WEST VIRGINIA - Seems like a big number in this rivalry with the home team winning the last three meetings. But Mountaineers star RB Jahiem White blew his knee out in the second quarter of last week's 17-10 loss at Ohio. Without him WVU had no running game whatsoever.

TEXAS TECH -22' vs. Oregon St. - Beavers look like a hot mess right now, starting the season with two bad losses at home. Now they go on the road to face a loaded Red Raiders team that had the #1 rated portal class coming in this off season. They essentially have 21 starters back, and it's hard to see the Beavs staying close in this one.

MIAMI FL. -17' vs. Usf - Can the Bulls pull off a third straight upset? If they do they'll have to play a lot better than last year's meeting in Tampa, won by the Hurricanes, 50-15. Miami trailed 15-14 in the first half of that game, but went on a 36-0 run to win going away. 'Canes have won and covered the last four meetings, and Mario Cristobal probably won't make the same bonehead mistakes Gators HC Billy Napier did last week. Even if they lose this one, USF is one of the front-runners for the G5 playoff bid.

Saturday evening games

OLE MISS -7 vs. Arkansas - Rebels won last year's meeting in Fayetteville, 63-21, but the Razorbacks have covered 10 of the last 12 meetings, all as an underdog, winning six games outright! In addition, the Hogs are 13-4 ATS as a dog in true road games under HC Sam Pittman, while the Rebels are just 3-10-1 ATS as home chalk under Lane Kiffin. Everything points to the dog here, and I'll give Arky the edge at QB with Taylen Green over the Rebs Austin Simmons.

NOTRE DAME -6' over Texas A&M - Aggies look to avenge a 23-13 loss in their home opener last year, and for what it's worth they're 11-0 SU in Game Three of the season the last 11 years! Irish are off a bye following a tough 27-24 loss in Miami, and will play with a sense of urgency in this one.

LSU -7' vs. Florida - Billy Napier is on the hot seat again, after bungling his clock management in the Gators stunning 18-16 loss at home to USF. Not sure they can get up off the mat against the Bayou Bengals, who are 13-1 in night games at Death Valley, and whose defense stifled Clemson two weeks ago, holding the Tigers to 261 total yards, including just 31 on the ground (1.6 YPR). 

SOUTH CAROLINA -4' vs. Vanderbilt - Commodores have lost the last 16 meetings, including the last eight in Columbia by an average of 13.3 points per game. But this one feels different. The Gamecocks are 2-0, but they've sputtered out of the gate. Vandy is on a 9-2 ATS run as an underdog, including 6-0 on the road. Last week in Blacksburg they rallied from a 20-10 halftime deficit to blow away Virginia Tech, 44-20, outgaining the Hokies 489 total yards to 241. If the 'Dores are forced to punt they may wanna avoid kicking to the 'Cocks Vicari Swain who has three punt return scores already!

TULANE -1 vs. Duke - The Blue Devils hand delivered a 45-19 win to Illinois with five turnovers, and after two games have committed six with no takeaways. The Green Wave, conversely, are plus six in net turnovers. With this being the 20th anniversary of the devastation of New Orleans from Hurricane Katrina, I think Tulane will be a team on a mission this season, especially at home. Plus, with another win against a Power Four opponent, they'll be one of the favorites for the G5 playoff berth.

Minnesota -1' at CALIFORNIA - Long road trip for the rodents, and the Golden Bears are off to a good start. Bryan Harsin is the Bears new OC, reuniting with HC Justin Wilcox. They were a winning combo in Boise under Chris Peterson. 

Boston College -12' at STANFORD - Loooooong road trip for the Eagles, off a double overtime loss at Michigan St. But you gotta have some big cajones to bet on Stanford this year.

@Boisestateand8

 I did indeed make the mistake of betting on Stanford last week. It was a play against BYU. And I was correct about BYU struggling, but man Stanford was horrid on offense. They couldnt even get a first down. A BYU under team total wouldve been the way to play it. 

They have no passing game whatsoever. I'd be on BC except for the travel factor.

Nice write ups sir 

GL  on your plays @Boisestateand8 

@MatthewJL46

@Macwestie1

Friday update

Friday night

Kansas St. -1' at ARIZONA - 'Zona looks like the better team right now, but K St. gets star RB Dylan Edwards back, and are a desperate team after stumbling out of the gate. They're gonna have to prove to me that they have a pulse before they show up on my playlist. 

Saturday games

Clemson -3 at GEORGIA TECH - Can the Rambling Wreck end a nine game losing streak to the Tigers? Very possible with the way Clemson has looked the first two games of the season. Ga. Tech should have Haynes King back. 

Oklahoma -24' at TEMPLE - Sooners won last year's matchup at home in a 51-3 pasting, but this Owls team is a whole different animal under K.C. Keeler, and this is a classic sandwich spot for Oklahoma, having beaten Michigan last week with Auburn on deck. 

ALABAMA -20' vs Wisconsin - Badgers starting QB Billy Edwards is out so soph Danny O'Neil will be behind center. Tide should roll here, but I can't get that loss to FSU out of my mind. Of course it could be that the 'Noles are just that good.

AUBURN -24' vs. South Alabama - Tigers are in the same look ahead situation as Oklahoma is, and the Jaguars feel like the right side here. But they're a big public dog in this one and the line hasn't budged, which makes me a little nervous about playing them. Awful lot of points though.

Usc -20' at PURDUE - Boilermakers are another big public dog and the line has dropped from -21. Neither team has been tested yet so this game will tell us a lot about both teams.

Georgia -4 at TENNESSEE - Bulldogs have dominated this series, and they strike me as a team that's been laying in the weeds the first two weeks of the season against inferior opponents. But with QB Gunnar Stockton facing his first big road test this might be the Vols best chance to end their series losing streak.

Pittsburgh -7' at WEST VIRGINIA - Mountaineers haven't been this big of a dog in this series in 30 years, but they're missing a couple of key cogs on offense, RB Jahiem White and WR Jaden Bray. 

TEXAS TECH -23' vs. Oregon St. - Feels like the Red Raiders could hang a 50 burger on the Beavs in this one. I don't see Oregon St. breaking 20. 

Saturday evening games

OLE MISS -6' vs. Arkansas - A couple more reasons to back the Hogs in this one. In the blowout loss at home last season, Taylen Green was injured early on, and with a huge lead late in the game, Lane Kiffin was running up the score. Also, Rebels QB Austin Simmons was injured late in last week's win over Kentucky and had to be helped off the field. He's been cleared to play but he's thrown four picks compared to just three TD passes. An outright win for Arkansas wouldn't surprise me, but I liked this line better at +7.

LSU -7 vs. Florida - The last three meetings in Baton Rouge the two teams have combined for 70, 91 and 87 total points, but this game has an under vibe to it. This is the beginning of an absolutely brutal slate for the Gators, off a shocking upset home loss to USF. They stand a good chance of being 1-3 going into their bye week, in which case Billy Napier may be in the unemployment line.

SOUTH CAROLINA -3 vs. Vanderbilt - Seems like the general public is on the Gamecocks in this one, but the line keeps dropping. Vandy has had this game circled all off-season and are determined to end a long losing streak. They outgained Va. Tech by 300 yards last week ........IN THE SECOND HALF!  The 'Cocks have just as many special teams and defensive scores (four) as they do on offense. THAT'S just not sustainable. Big lean to the 'Dores in this one.

TULANE -1' vs. Duke - In an interesting twist, Blue Devils QB Darian Mensah returns to New Orleans to take on his old team. Seems like that could be plenty of motivation for the Green Wave to bring their "A" game against the QB that left them in the transfer portal. Oh, and there's that G5 playoff thing. Two wins vs Power Four opponents might be enough to get them in, regardless of what happens at Ole Miss next week. Of course they still have to win the AAC, but I'm a big believer in HC Jon Sumrall.

ARIZONA ST. -17' vs. Texas St. - A late addition. The Bobcats came close to knocking off the Sun Devils last season, losing a 31-28 heartbreaker in San Marcos. And last week they handed UTSA just their fourth home field loss in the last five years, beating the Roadrunners, 43-36. They're a live dog here.

Minnesota -2' at CALIFORNIA - We might not have a PAC 12 anymore, but it seems like we still have a PAC 12 after dark, with three former members hosting late night affairs. This will be a very late start for the Gophers (central time zone), who may be without starting RB Darious Taylor for this one. Cal's true frosh QB, Jaron-Keane Sagapolutele (THERE'S a mouthful), has been impressive in leading his team to a 2-0 start.

Kansas St. is a trainwreck right now. Arizona outgained them by 219 yards and even though the final was 23-17, it never felt like they had an answer. Dylan Edwards had to leave the game after just four carries, QB Avery Johnson was terrible (13 of 29 for 88 yards), and the defense was torched for 239 rushing yards. Their bye week couldn't come at a better time.

But as bad as K St. looks, UCLA is looks even worse. Their 35-10 home loss to New Mexico as a 15 point favorite was stunning. They gave up 298 yards on the ground, and QB Nico Iamaleava continues to struggle. It's laughable that he thought he was worth 4 million in NIL money at Tennessee. The Bruins are another team with a badly needed bye next week.

BOL tomorrow and Sunday everyone!