NCAA Week 12 Ponderings

Motivation is one of the biggest factors in handicapping this time of year. Which teams are in the running for the CFP? Who's trying to play their way into a bowl? Which teams already have seven losses and may be throwing in the towel? Without further ado here's a rundown on some of this week's games. Home teams in CAPS

Thursday, Nov. 13th

OLD DOMINION -10 Troy - The Trojans are certainly the more motivated team here. Win this one, and next weeks home game against Georgia St. and they'll be playing Southern Miss for the Sun Belt East title, and the right to play in the conference championship game. But they gotta win this one first and they have a punchers chance to do just that. They're 4-1 ATS as a dog this year with three outright wins. The Monarchs became bowl eligible two weeks ago and have almost no shot at a Sun Belt title.

More later.

Well I took Troy … they were dominated.. literally…. No chance.   I’m on a hideous run.   Only dog to cover this week has been Kent st.  

@Mskeets

 Yeah, that game was a stinker. That's two bad ones in a row for Troy, since becoming bowl eligible. Hope things turn around for ya. 

Friday, Nov. 14th

LOUISVILLE -2' Clemson - The Tigers need two wins just to go bowling, and will look to avenge last season's 33-21 loss in Death Valley. The Cardinals are off a devastating overtime loss to Cal last week, and are 0-5 ATS at home. Slight lean to Clemson.

OREGON -25' Minnesota - The Golden Gophers are off a bye, but they're 0-3 SU, ATS and ITS (in the stats) on the road, including blowout losses at Ohio St. and Iowa. Still, IF they can score at least seven here they might stay within the big spread. The Ducks have a banged up receiving corps, and weather conditions figure to be of the sloppy variety.

Saturday, Nov. 15th - early games

INDIANA -29' Wisconsin - The Hoosiers should win this by however many they want. Their main focus here is staying healthy for the Big Ten title game in a few weeks. 

Usf -10 NAVY - The Bulls are currently in the driver's seat for the G5 playoff spot, and will be looking to avenge last season's 28-7 loss in Tampa, AND they have two extra days prep time. The Midshipmen are off back to back road losses to North Texas (31-17) and Notre Dame (49-10). QB Blake Horvath was a last minute scratch against the Irish, in a game that really didn't matter as far as the AAC standings go. Both of these teams have just one conference loss, and there's line value here on the Middies. If Horvath is good to go I think Navy can hang with USF.

Michigan -10' NORTHWESTERN - This game will be a rock fight. The Wolverines SHOULD be able to wear the Wildcats down eventually. Tough call.

TEXAS A&M -17' South Carolina - The Aggies are 9-0 and off three straight wins on the road, with a showdown with Texas coming up in a couple weeks. This is no time for a hiccup against a Gamecocks team that nearly upset Alabama a couple weeks ago.

Eastern Michigan -2' BALL ST. - How motivated can the 2-7 Eagles be as road chalk? They're gonna be home for the holidays and they're 0-5 on the road. The Cardinals are 4-0 at home and still have an outside shot at playing in the MAC title game.  What am I missing here?

Notre Dame -12' PITTSBURGH - The Irish have to win out and they have to look good doing it to secure a spot in the CFP. The Panthers are off a bye, with two huge ACC games on deck that will determine who plays for the conference championship. HC Pat Narduzzi has downplayed the importance of this game to the media, but in the locker room you know the players are hyped to be playing Notre freaking Dame! Pitt is averaging 40 points a game since frosh QB Mason Heintschel took over behind center, but this is BY FAR the Panthers' toughest test yet.

CINCINNATI -6 Arizona - The Desert Cats could be dangerous here with a defense that ranks third in the Big 12 in total yards (302 per game), and second against the pass (160.1). But Brendan Sorsby is the best QB they've faced, hands down. Cincy is off a bye, following their beatdown at Utah.

UCONN -7' Air Force - The Falcons are off a 26-16 win at San Jose (outgained by 133 yards) and now have to travel to the East Coast to play a Huskies team that's undefeated at home,while averaging 43 points a game. The Flyboys' defense can be had.

GL  on your plays @Boisestateand8 

best of luck -- tough car this week IMHO -- try to find the "towel tossers" like EMichigan and getting down to the LHG plays (last home game) ..

Saturday afternoon games

North Texas -17' UAB - The Mean Green are off a bye and should win out. That would put them in prime position to play for the AAC title. Can't see the Blazers winning this, but a cover isn't out of the question.

NEW MEXICO -14' Colorado St. - The Rams are 2-7, with an interim coach and are looking like they've thrown in the towel. I love the job Jason Eck is doing in Albuquerque. The Lobos are already bowl eligible and having lost 17-6 at Fort Collins last year, a little payback would seem to be in order here. New Mexico is one of the teams in the mix to play for the MWC title, and I'd be shocked if this game was close.

Penn St. -7 MICHIGAN ST. - Both teams are mired in six game losing streaks. The Nittany Lions are the more talented team, but are 0-5 ATS as chalk and how much can they have left in the tank after so many gut punch losses? Sparty is off a bye and is 5-0 ATS as a dog this season.

Georgia Tech -16' BOSTON COLLEGE - The Yellow Jackets are off a bye after picking up their first loss of the year at NC State. They have a HUGE game with Pitt on deck, but the Eagles don't figure to put up much of a fight here. 

SOUTHERN MISS -3 Texas St. -  This line opened at -7. Golden Eagles QB Braylon Braxton left last week's game with a knee injury, but he's listed as probable for this game. Something's fishy with this line.

TEXAS TECH -23' Ucf - These two teams are headed in opposite directions. Will the Red Raiders have a bit of a letdown after two huge wins? I'm not paying to find out. There's zero line value in this game.

DUKE -4' Virginia - This line has dropped from -6' which indicates to me that Cavaliers QB Chandler Morris is good to go after being injured in last week's loss to Wake. But even with Morris in the lineup, every game has been a struggle for the Cavs lately. 

MIAMI-FL -14' NC State - The Wolfpack are off a bye, and handed Georgia Tech its' first loss two weeks ago, so they can be dangerous. The Hurricanes have dropped two of their last four and are now longshots to win the ACC. They SHOULD win this, but CJ Bailey and the 'Pack could sneak in the back door.

USC -6' Iowa - The Hawkeyes are 6-1-1 ATS this season, and their three losses have been by a grand total of ten points. It's Homecoming for the Trojans, and while they've played well vs. Big Ten teams at the Coliseum, heavy rainfall is in the forecast, which will muddy things up in this game. I was leaning towards the Hawkeyes anyway, with the better run game and better defense. And since they're bringing some good old Iowa weather with them for this game...

ALABAMA -6 Oklahoma - The Sooners knocked the Crimson Tide out of playoff consideration last season with a 24-3 beatdown in Norman. The Tide look to return the favor, and have the nation's longest current home winning streak (4-0 ATS this year), but they'll find it tough going against this defense, even with Oklahoma perhaps missing a couple of key pieces. 

EAST CAROLINA -3 Memphis - The Tigers look to rebound from their 38-32 home loss to Tulane last Friday. It feels like the wrong team may be favored here, but QB Brendon Lewis has been banged up and he's been in and out of the lineup.  The Pirates are off three straight wins since their own loss to Tulane.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN -3 Coastal Carolina - Coastal is coasting right now, winning and covering four straight, and are out to avenge a 26-6 rout at home last year. If the Chanticleers pull this off, it sets up a showdown with JMU for the right to play in the Sun Belt title game. The Eagles are struggling just to make a bowl game.

Saturday evening games 

OLE MISS -11' Florida - The Gators knocked the Rebels out of the playoff picture last season with a 24-17 upset win in the Swamp. I'm pretty sure Lane Kiffin remembers. This is Florida's third straight game away from Gainesville, and they put forth a weak effort at Kentucky last week in a 38-7 loss. Ole Miss may as well have had a bye as they breezed past the Citadel, 49-0. Kiffin may well be the Gators' coach NEXT year, but if he has a chance to run it up in this game I suspect he will.

WASHINGTON -16' Purdue - Stick a fork in 'em, the Boilermakers are done at 2-8 on the season. They're a lot better than they were a year ago, even though their record doesn't show it. But getting motivated for a long road trip against a Huskies team looking to rebound from an inexplicable loss at Wisconsin will be a tough task. UW is 6-0 ATS at home off a road ATS loss under HC Jedd Fisch.

Utah -8' BAYLOR - Both teams are off a bye following blowout wins. The Bears' defense has been a sieve, but played their best game of the year (much to my chagrin) in a 30-3 rout of UCF two weeks ago. But I have far more faith in the Utes' defense which smothered Cincinnati in a 45-14 blowout.

GEORGIA -6' Texas - This is a must win for the Longhorns, who would like to atone for a pair of losses to Georgia last season, including the SEC title game. Texas is off a bye with a stifling run defense, but they can be had through the air, and the Dawgs are 52-2 between the hedges since 2017 (lost to Alabama earlier this year). 

OHIO ST. -31' Ucla - The Buckeyes just wanna get through this game, and the game next week against Rutgers without any injuries before the big grudge match in Ann Arbor. 

MISSOURI -7 Mississippi St. - The Tigers won't have QB Beau Pribula for the rest of the season, and backup freshman Matt Zollers had an inauspicious debut last week vs. A&M, completing just seven of 22 passes for 77 yards. I'd be on the Bulldogs here, but they might be starting a backup QB as well with starter Blake Shapen questionable for this game.

WASHINGTON ST. -8' Louisiana Tech - The Bulldogs are off a last second, 25-24 loss at Delaware, and now go clear across the country for a late start time in Pullman. The Cougars were off last week after dropping a 10-7 clunker at Oregon St. This might be too big a number, but Wazzu COULD roll here.

BYU -3 Tcu - The Horned Frogs outgained Iowa St. by 164 yards, but saw their Big 12 title hopes dashed in a 20-17 upset loss to the Cyclones. The Stormin' Mormans were humbled last week at Texas Tech, 29-7, for their first loss of the season. The trick now is to not let the Red Raiders beat them twice. TCU is certainly capable of the upset here.

SAN DIEGO ST -1' Boise St. - I see a few handicappers I respect on my Broncos in this game, but I can assure you that nobody in Boise is feeling that confident. The Aztecs were blown out on the islands by a good Hawaii team, 38-6, and are looking to rebound. They're also out for revenge for a 56-24 beating on the Blue a year ago. BSU has a long injury list, including starting QB Maddux Madsen. I won't be playing this game, but for those of you on the Broncos I hope it hits! 

BOL to one and all! 

Some great points in here,making me take a closer look at some games I overlooked. Thanks, and good luck today.

I was leaning to UCLA and TCU, your write up pushing me to go ahead and play them. 

Go Broncs!

@Macwestie1 

 @BoatRace 

 @Yanasaur 

 @Manowarfan1 

Best of luck peeps. All opinions are welcome, and please, don't let me talk you into a play you don't like, or out of a play you like. 

B8 

@Fuse 

Looking a little deeper into that titanic MAC showdown (joke) between EMU and Ball St.  Initial lean was to the Gonads thinking the Emus didn't have anything to play for. BUT, they didn't have anything to play for last week either when they beat Bowling Green. They're still playing hard for Chris Creighton, which is a credit to them in a lost season.

I'd love to take Navy today, and I'm still leaning that way, but that USF team is GOOOOOOOOD! And I still haven't seen anything regarding Blake Horvath's status.

Of course the game of the morning slate is Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh. Seems like the Irish should win by at least a couple of TDs in a game that means far more to them than it does to the Panthers (at least according to Pat Narduzzi). But I can't get over the gut feeling that Pitt COULD be a fly in the Irish ointment, at least early on. 

Well crap… read this and played Arizona under   21 points with 3 min left in first qtr… fook me  

@Mskeets

 Yikes! Arizona looks like they're still asleep. It IS an early start time for them (9 am Pacific time). I overlooked that aspect of the game, but Sorsby is a damn good QB.

Some line movement in tonight's games.

Washington is down to -14' over Purdue. The Huskies had some significant injuries in last week's loss at Wisconsin. Their leading rusher, receiver and two offensive linemen all went down, and are questionable this week. 

Georgia is now -4', down from 6'. I'm not as impressed with the Longhorns defense as a lot of folks are. Except for the Oklahoma game (where Sooners QB John Mateer played his first game after having surgery on his hand), they've given up well over 400 yards a game vs SEC competition, and they're 0-4 ATS in true road games this year. I don't get the line move in this one given Georgia's record at home.

Ohio St. is now -34' over UCLA! In six Big Ten games the Buckeyes are averaging 34.3 points a game. They could win this game 40-7, which would be an impressive win but it wouldn't cover the spread. Hmmm.

BYU is down to -3 over TCU. The Frogs seem to be a popular bet.

@Boisestateand8

 That game stayed under with 21 or 24 first qtr points…. Goodness … I played it partially off your write up on Arizona D… so I tip my cap… gave it almost no chance. 

@Boisestateand8

 James gonna beat crap out of coastal.  

No argument there. But I like Coastal today against Ga. Southern. And congrats on your Cincinnati under play! I was pulling for ya!