Seems like this forum has a real hatred for the Buckeyes. Week after week, the majority here lines up to fade them and week after week, that’s been a losing strategy. Ohio State has covered every game this season, yet here we are again.
The line opened as high as 28.5 and has now dropped to 25, Are people once again taking a swing at “this is the week they don’t cover.”
Personally? I wouldn’t.
I’ll share more details and a few angles on the matchup later, but it’s worth asking, how many times are folks going to bet against this team before they learn?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Before we get started…..
Seems like this forum has a real hatred for the Buckeyes. Week after week, the majority here lines up to fade them and week after week, that’s been a losing strategy. Ohio State has covered every game this season, yet here we are again.
The line opened as high as 28.5 and has now dropped to 25, Are people once again taking a swing at “this is the week they don’t cover.”
Personally? I wouldn’t.
I’ll share more details and a few angles on the matchup later, but it’s worth asking, how many times are folks going to bet against this team before they learn?
Tulsa has scored 7, 14, 19, 23, 14 against FBS teams, they just don’t have the firepower. ECU, meanwhile, has absolutely crushed similar opponents (Campbell, Coastal, Army), allowing a total of 9 points in those games combined. ECU is 6–1 ATS in the series.
The Pirates are 4-2 ATS this season, including 3-0 as favorites, and the under has hit in 5 of 6 games.
ECU defense ranks 15th nationally in points allowed (15.5 per game) and 7th in tackles for loss (8.0 per game), making them a stout unit against the run (3.4 yards per carry allowed).
Coach Tre Lamb is shaking things up by naming freshman QB Baylor Hayes the starter for the rest of the year, citing his mobility, lower turnover rate (four TDs, three INTs in four appearances), and upside.
ECU plays fast and can separate in a hurry, while Tulsa’s offense has struggled to even keep pace with average defenses. This is a prime-time home bounce-back spot after a tough loss to Tulane, and the matchup edge is clear.
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Play #1 for WK8
Thursday
7:30 Tulsa @ East Carolina -16.5
Tulsa has scored 7, 14, 19, 23, 14 against FBS teams, they just don’t have the firepower. ECU, meanwhile, has absolutely crushed similar opponents (Campbell, Coastal, Army), allowing a total of 9 points in those games combined. ECU is 6–1 ATS in the series.
The Pirates are 4-2 ATS this season, including 3-0 as favorites, and the under has hit in 5 of 6 games.
ECU defense ranks 15th nationally in points allowed (15.5 per game) and 7th in tackles for loss (8.0 per game), making them a stout unit against the run (3.4 yards per carry allowed).
Coach Tre Lamb is shaking things up by naming freshman QB Baylor Hayes the starter for the rest of the year, citing his mobility, lower turnover rate (four TDs, three INTs in four appearances), and upside.
ECU plays fast and can separate in a hurry, while Tulsa’s offense has struggled to even keep pace with average defenses. This is a prime-time home bounce-back spot after a tough loss to Tulane, and the matchup edge is clear.
The No. 12 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-0) head to Durham to face the Duke Blue Devils (4-2) in a pivotal ACC matchup. Despite Georgia Tech’s perfect record and top-15 ranking, the Blue Devils are home favorites. This line feels like a trap, undervaluing the Yellow Jackets’ dominance this season while overhyping Duke’s recent bounce-back wins.
Georgia Tech has been a revelation under Brent Key, boasting one of the most balanced offenses in the country. QB Haynes King has been lights-out, completing over 71% of his passes with a bruising ground game that averages 5.2 yards per carry, perfectly suited to exploit Duke’s defense, which ranks a middling 88th in points allowed and surrenders 123.2 rushing yards per game. The Jackets rank in the top 25 nationally in scoring (around 36.5 PPG) and have covered the spread in four of six games, including as road underdogs. Their defense has stepped up too, leading the ACC in sacks and forcing turnovers at a high clip, which should disrupt Duke’s rhythm.
Duke, meanwhile, started hot but stumbled with losses to Illinois and Tulane before righting the ship with three straight wins over NC State, Syracuse, and Cal. QB Darian Mensah has impressed with 1,838 passing yards, 15 TDs, and a 69.8% completion rate, while the ground game ranks 14th nationally. But their defense has vulnerabilities, especially against the run, and they’ve been outscored by an average of 17 points in their last three meetings with Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils are just 3-3 ATS overall and have gone over the total in five of six games, but facing an undefeated GT squad feels like a step up in class.
Historically, Georgia Tech owns this series, winning the last four straight-up (including a 24-14 road victory in 2024) and covering in three of those. Given GT’s 6-0 SU record and 4-2 ATS mark, plus their ability to control the trenches, this screams upset potential.
The Yellow Jackets are the better team on paper and in form, with a proven edge in the series and a matchup advantage against Duke’s run defense. Expect GT to win outright.
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Play #2
Saturday 12:00 G Tech +1.5 @ Duke
The No. 12 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-0) head to Durham to face the Duke Blue Devils (4-2) in a pivotal ACC matchup. Despite Georgia Tech’s perfect record and top-15 ranking, the Blue Devils are home favorites. This line feels like a trap, undervaluing the Yellow Jackets’ dominance this season while overhyping Duke’s recent bounce-back wins.
Georgia Tech has been a revelation under Brent Key, boasting one of the most balanced offenses in the country. QB Haynes King has been lights-out, completing over 71% of his passes with a bruising ground game that averages 5.2 yards per carry, perfectly suited to exploit Duke’s defense, which ranks a middling 88th in points allowed and surrenders 123.2 rushing yards per game. The Jackets rank in the top 25 nationally in scoring (around 36.5 PPG) and have covered the spread in four of six games, including as road underdogs. Their defense has stepped up too, leading the ACC in sacks and forcing turnovers at a high clip, which should disrupt Duke’s rhythm.
Duke, meanwhile, started hot but stumbled with losses to Illinois and Tulane before righting the ship with three straight wins over NC State, Syracuse, and Cal. QB Darian Mensah has impressed with 1,838 passing yards, 15 TDs, and a 69.8% completion rate, while the ground game ranks 14th nationally. But their defense has vulnerabilities, especially against the run, and they’ve been outscored by an average of 17 points in their last three meetings with Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils are just 3-3 ATS overall and have gone over the total in five of six games, but facing an undefeated GT squad feels like a step up in class.
Historically, Georgia Tech owns this series, winning the last four straight-up (including a 24-14 road victory in 2024) and covering in three of those. Given GT’s 6-0 SU record and 4-2 ATS mark, plus their ability to control the trenches, this screams upset potential.
The Yellow Jackets are the better team on paper and in form, with a proven edge in the series and a matchup advantage against Duke’s run defense. Expect GT to win outright.
The UConn Huskies (4-2) travel to Alumni Stadium to face the struggling Boston College Eagles (1-5, 0-4 ACC). Despite BC’s Power 4 status and home-field advantage, the Eagles are just 1.5-point faves. This line reflects BC’s recent woes but undervalues UConn’s resurgence under head coach Jim Mora, who has transformed the independent program into a competitive force capable of hanging with and beating bigger names.
UConn enters off a bye week following a dominant 51-7 win over FIU, marking their fourth victory in five games. The Huskies boast a balanced offense averaging over 400 yards per game, led by QB Joe Fagnano’s efficient passing (65% completion rate, 11 TDs) and a ground attack that’s churned out 177 rushing yards per contest in projections. Defensively, they’ve forced turnovers (+4 edge) and limited opponents to under 24 points in recent outings. BC, conversely, has imploded with five straight losses, including blowouts to Pitt (48-7) and Clemson (41-21), where their run game stalled at a dismal 85 yards per game average. QB Dylan Lonergan has regressed (1-2 TD-INT ratio in last four starts), and the Eagles rank near the bottom of the ACC in scoring defense, allowing 35+ points in three of their last four.
Historically, BC owns the series 6-1 since 2016, but UConn has covered the spread in the last two meetings, including a gritty 21-14 loss as +14 underdogs in 2023. Betting trends support UConn is 7-2 ATS as underdogs vs. ACC foes, while BC is 2-4 ATS overall and winless against FBS teams.
The Huskies are the hotter, more cohesive team with superior recent form, a turnover-forcing defense, and offensive firepower to exploit BC’s vulnerabilities in the trenches. BC’s 1-5 start and QB instability make them unreliable as favorites, even at home. Expect UConn to pull the upset in a 31-24 grinder, covering easily while the total stays under due to both teams’ clock-controlling styles.
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Play #3
UConn +1.5 @ Boston College
The UConn Huskies (4-2) travel to Alumni Stadium to face the struggling Boston College Eagles (1-5, 0-4 ACC). Despite BC’s Power 4 status and home-field advantage, the Eagles are just 1.5-point faves. This line reflects BC’s recent woes but undervalues UConn’s resurgence under head coach Jim Mora, who has transformed the independent program into a competitive force capable of hanging with and beating bigger names.
UConn enters off a bye week following a dominant 51-7 win over FIU, marking their fourth victory in five games. The Huskies boast a balanced offense averaging over 400 yards per game, led by QB Joe Fagnano’s efficient passing (65% completion rate, 11 TDs) and a ground attack that’s churned out 177 rushing yards per contest in projections. Defensively, they’ve forced turnovers (+4 edge) and limited opponents to under 24 points in recent outings. BC, conversely, has imploded with five straight losses, including blowouts to Pitt (48-7) and Clemson (41-21), where their run game stalled at a dismal 85 yards per game average. QB Dylan Lonergan has regressed (1-2 TD-INT ratio in last four starts), and the Eagles rank near the bottom of the ACC in scoring defense, allowing 35+ points in three of their last four.
Historically, BC owns the series 6-1 since 2016, but UConn has covered the spread in the last two meetings, including a gritty 21-14 loss as +14 underdogs in 2023. Betting trends support UConn is 7-2 ATS as underdogs vs. ACC foes, while BC is 2-4 ATS overall and winless against FBS teams.
The Huskies are the hotter, more cohesive team with superior recent form, a turnover-forcing defense, and offensive firepower to exploit BC’s vulnerabilities in the trenches. BC’s 1-5 start and QB instability make them unreliable as favorites, even at home. Expect UConn to pull the upset in a 31-24 grinder, covering easily while the total stays under due to both teams’ clock-controlling styles.
Troy enters this Sun Belt clash on a hot streak, riding three consecutive wins to sit atop the West Division at 4-2 overall (2-0 conference). The Trojans have shown resilience in back-to-back overtime victories over South Alabama (31-24) and Texas State (48-41), where QB Tucker Kilcrease exploded for 415 passing yards and five TDs in the latter. While their run defense remains a vulnerability, allowing over 200 rushing yards in recent games, it’s unlikely to be exploited by a UL Monroe offense that’s sputtering at just 17.2 PPG, ranking near the bottom of FBS (126th). The Warhawks (3-3, 1-1) started strong but have faded fast, dropping their last two by a combined 65-15 to Northwestern and Coastal Carolina, with QB Aidan Armenta managing only modest output and the team converting a dismal 1-13 on third downs in their latest loss. ULM’s defense allows 29.8 PPG and 390+ total yards, which plays right into Troy’s hands, the Trojans average 28.8 PPG and have gone over in three of six games. Add in revenge motive after last year’s shocking 13-9 home upset to ULM (as 6-point favorites), and Troy should dominate possession (29:45 TOP) and pull away late against a fatigued Warhawks squad at home. Trends favor Troy too: they’re 4-2 ATS overall (3-0 on the road), while ULM is 2-4 ATS (1-2 as 6+ point dogs). This has all the makings of a double-digit road win!
Troy’s offensive momentum and divisional positioning overwhelm ULM’s struggling attack and leaky defense, especially with motivation from last year’s defeat. Expect the total to push over as well, but the side is the stronger play here.
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Play #4
Troy -6 @ UL Monroe
Troy enters this Sun Belt clash on a hot streak, riding three consecutive wins to sit atop the West Division at 4-2 overall (2-0 conference). The Trojans have shown resilience in back-to-back overtime victories over South Alabama (31-24) and Texas State (48-41), where QB Tucker Kilcrease exploded for 415 passing yards and five TDs in the latter. While their run defense remains a vulnerability, allowing over 200 rushing yards in recent games, it’s unlikely to be exploited by a UL Monroe offense that’s sputtering at just 17.2 PPG, ranking near the bottom of FBS (126th). The Warhawks (3-3, 1-1) started strong but have faded fast, dropping their last two by a combined 65-15 to Northwestern and Coastal Carolina, with QB Aidan Armenta managing only modest output and the team converting a dismal 1-13 on third downs in their latest loss. ULM’s defense allows 29.8 PPG and 390+ total yards, which plays right into Troy’s hands, the Trojans average 28.8 PPG and have gone over in three of six games. Add in revenge motive after last year’s shocking 13-9 home upset to ULM (as 6-point favorites), and Troy should dominate possession (29:45 TOP) and pull away late against a fatigued Warhawks squad at home. Trends favor Troy too: they’re 4-2 ATS overall (3-0 on the road), while ULM is 2-4 ATS (1-2 as 6+ point dogs). This has all the makings of a double-digit road win!
Troy’s offensive momentum and divisional positioning overwhelm ULM’s struggling attack and leaky defense, especially with motivation from last year’s defeat. Expect the total to push over as well, but the side is the stronger play here.
Since QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson took over, Marshall’s offense has been on fire: Scored 48 / 51 / 42 / 38 points in their last four games. He’s hitting 76% completions with 11 TDs to 0 INTs, plus 4 rushing TDs. Marshall has been running a faster tempo, and has put up 35+ points even against decent defenses. Against Old Dominion, they racked up 445 yards and scored 48 despite a 5–0 turnover battle against them. Texas State’s defense has been shaky. Ranked #104 nationally allowing 395 YPG. Gave up 415 passing yards and 5 TDs to Troy last week. Allowed 439 yards to Old Dominion and 461 to Louisiana recently. Their pace is one of the fastest in the country which leads to more possessions and more total points both ways.
This is a perfect storm for Marshall’s uptempo, balanced attack to find plenty of scoring opportunities.
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Play #5
3:30 Texas St @ Marshall TT Over 31.5
Since QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson took over, Marshall’s offense has been on fire: Scored 48 / 51 / 42 / 38 points in their last four games. He’s hitting 76% completions with 11 TDs to 0 INTs, plus 4 rushing TDs. Marshall has been running a faster tempo, and has put up 35+ points even against decent defenses. Against Old Dominion, they racked up 445 yards and scored 48 despite a 5–0 turnover battle against them. Texas State’s defense has been shaky. Ranked #104 nationally allowing 395 YPG. Gave up 415 passing yards and 5 TDs to Troy last week. Allowed 439 yards to Old Dominion and 461 to Louisiana recently. Their pace is one of the fastest in the country which leads to more possessions and more total points both ways.
This is a perfect storm for Marshall’s uptempo, balanced attack to find plenty of scoring opportunities.
I get where you’re coming from Georgia Tech’s resume isn’t spotless, and yes, they’ve had some dramatic finishes. But calling them “overrated” and lucky oversimplifies what’s actually been a consistent, balanced team that’s been finding ways to win, not just stumbling into them.
Let’s unpack a few things:
Poll positioning vs. performance Sure, you could argue GT’s resume lacks a “marquee” win, but they’ve won four straight, including Clemson on the road and that wasn’t just luck. GT had a +207 yard edge (504–297) through three quarters in that game before the 55-yarder. Clemson wasn’t some pushover; GT controlled that game statistically.
Offense quietly efficient Haynes King is averaging 7.5 YPA at a 70% clip. More importantly, GT is averaging 36.5 PPG and ranks Top 15 nationally in rushing (238 YPG). They’ve leaned into a physical identity behind one of the best OL units in the ACC, and that travels.
Situational strength Georgia Tech is 4-0 SU/ATS as a dog of 6 or fewer under Brent Key, exactly this spot. Duke, meanwhile, is in a look-ahead sandwich with Clemson on deck, and historically struggles as a small home favorite in these types of ACC toss-ups. GT has also won four straight in the series, which isn’t nothing.
“Lucky finishes” vs. execution under pressure Yes, the Wake and Clemson endings were dramatic, but that’s also what good teams do execute when it matters. Those weren’t fluke bounces; they were drives led by a composed QB and a kicker who can hit from 55.
Bottom line:
GT might not have a top-10 caliber résumé, but they’ve been more consistent in both trenches, are playing with confidence, and match up well with Duke’s offense (which has benefited from turnover “luck” lately). This isn’t about ranking aesthetics it’s about a short number, a proven underdog, and a Duke team that may be getting a bit too much market respect after a turnover-fueled run.
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@lazzybum
I get where you’re coming from Georgia Tech’s resume isn’t spotless, and yes, they’ve had some dramatic finishes. But calling them “overrated” and lucky oversimplifies what’s actually been a consistent, balanced team that’s been finding ways to win, not just stumbling into them.
Let’s unpack a few things:
Poll positioning vs. performance Sure, you could argue GT’s resume lacks a “marquee” win, but they’ve won four straight, including Clemson on the road and that wasn’t just luck. GT had a +207 yard edge (504–297) through three quarters in that game before the 55-yarder. Clemson wasn’t some pushover; GT controlled that game statistically.
Offense quietly efficient Haynes King is averaging 7.5 YPA at a 70% clip. More importantly, GT is averaging 36.5 PPG and ranks Top 15 nationally in rushing (238 YPG). They’ve leaned into a physical identity behind one of the best OL units in the ACC, and that travels.
Situational strength Georgia Tech is 4-0 SU/ATS as a dog of 6 or fewer under Brent Key, exactly this spot. Duke, meanwhile, is in a look-ahead sandwich with Clemson on deck, and historically struggles as a small home favorite in these types of ACC toss-ups. GT has also won four straight in the series, which isn’t nothing.
“Lucky finishes” vs. execution under pressure Yes, the Wake and Clemson endings were dramatic, but that’s also what good teams do execute when it matters. Those weren’t fluke bounces; they were drives led by a composed QB and a kicker who can hit from 55.
Bottom line:
GT might not have a top-10 caliber résumé, but they’ve been more consistent in both trenches, are playing with confidence, and match up well with Duke’s offense (which has benefited from turnover “luck” lately). This isn’t about ranking aesthetics it’s about a short number, a proven underdog, and a Duke team that may be getting a bit too much market respect after a turnover-fueled run.
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