Miami -6.5

Before the season started, Fan Duel would have had this line at -6.5.  Just sayin, let that sink in.

A lot of people sleeping on Miami here.  And that’s fine.  Easy to do with the way human behavior works.  All we have heard is how invincible Indiana is. 

this game is much closer to a coin flip than the perception is giving it credit for.  +270 at home and +9? Holy shit, that’s the only value I see here in the lines that are presented.  

Miami very well may lose.  But holy shit, you’re gonna give me +270 on what I view as a coin flip.  Give it to me all day long.  

Agree. Miami isnt as bad as they looked in their last game, and Indiana isn’t as good as they looked. Indiana got outgained, and less first downs. They were gifted the three turnovers as well. The line before the semis would have been Indiana -5. Now it’s 8.5 based on the perceptions of their prior games.  

@JimboSlice01

Still early but seeing a lot of Miami love out there.

@SportsIntuition

 Where? I only see majority IU.  Not to mention 70%+ of the money being on IU.  I disagree.  

@JimboSlice01

 What’s your source for “public money”? Hopefully not covers or some other free public site. 

@SportsIntuition

 A lot of books will give you stats on where the money flows.  I said nothing about ‘public money’, that’s your narrative.  Are you seriously trying to suggest here that a majority of the money is not on IU? That’s silly dude. 

@JimboSlice01

You said a lot of people sleeping on Miami...

I simply stated that I was seeing a lot of Miami love out there.

You cite "coin flip" and "value".

If it was a "coin flip" why did oddsmakers make the Canes 7.5-8.5 dogs at HOME?

Aren't you at least a little bit curious?

@SportsIntuition

 Because I understand the line isn’t set based on what Vegas thinks is going to happen in the game.  It is set based upon how they think the money will react to the line that’s put out.  That’s why before IU played Oregon, the line was -5, depending on the book.  After that game, -7.5.  What changed? The rosters didn’t, only the perception did.  Back whoever you would like, I’ve made up my mind based on the information that’s available.  

The “public” money is a factor and is one factor why this line is -9 

Indy undefeated while Miami has 2 losses. Indy beating Oregon and Ohio state as dogs now a jump to -7 is a big factor too.  Indy has incredible value as a dog.  No long incredible value at -7 or more. 

I said and think exactly what you think.  Coin flip.  If Indy was a +3 I’d back them.  Soon as this game is close to 0 or Indy minus points, I’m move to Miami. 

Laughable comment. The reason they outplayed Ohio State 13-10, Tide 38-3, and Oregon 56-22 is due to superior QB play, superior defense, and superior TOs. Not to mention the biggest X-factor who is Cignetti. Go back to his days at James Madison and you will understand that this is no ordinary team.

@JimboSlice01

 What would the preseason line on Ore. Miami have been? Or, IU v Ore? I think this is a replay of last year's final. Miami hangs around, IU pulls away fr the W.

GL!  

I keep thinking of the Indiana and Penn State game. They barely beat a crappy PSU team. So I do think Miami has a shot in this. I’m following this hunch after a lucrative NFL Divisional Round. Probably bet only $50 each on Miami ML / Miami -2.5 / Miami -4.5. Good luck all!!!

@JimboSlice01

 Yeah before the season started, let that sink in. The same way Clemson and PSU were top 5 teams. Use your brain

Clemson and Penn St where supposed to be in the CFB playoffs.....

Not sure what preseason had to do with anything, except to look back and see how much people didn't know about stuff.

@TRAIN69

 Didn’t IU need a miracle to beat penn state? A bad Penn state according to you? Oh yea…

@SportsIntuition

 What’s your source 

Notwithstanding recency bias and like,I have IN -1.5.  Mendoza over Beck. Simple as that. Could b dead wrong. No biggie. Won't b the first time. How bout Caleb Williams? Wow

GL  on your plays @JimboSlice01

@richiepicks

 Didn’t IU need a miracle to beat Penn state?? 

If this were on a neutral field would Indy have been 10