Four significant line moves since around early afternoon:
NW - Nebraska >> line has move from -13/-13.5 Husks occasionally >> -12 right now 10pm EST
Wyo - Illinois >> line was -11/-11.5 Illinois last 24-48 hrs >> -13 now at 10pm EST
Nev - NMSU >> line was -9.5 Nevada >> now -8.5
Vandy - Hawaii >> line was -6.5 to -8.5 to -7.5 (gyrating) >> now -9
Public betting or Sharps?? Will only report on greater changes when we have more games but with only about 7 D-1 games, these lines are hopping a little within one day all of sudden before Friday action which I notice, can show some significant swings
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Four significant line moves since around early afternoon:
NW - Nebraska >> line has move from -13/-13.5 Husks occasionally >> -12 right now 10pm EST
Wyo - Illinois >> line was -11/-11.5 Illinois last 24-48 hrs >> -13 now at 10pm EST
Nev - NMSU >> line was -9.5 Nevada >> now -8.5
Vandy - Hawaii >> line was -6.5 to -8.5 to -7.5 (gyrating) >> now -9
Public betting or Sharps?? Will only report on greater changes when we have more games but with only about 7 D-1 games, these lines are hopping a little within one day all of sudden before Friday action which I notice, can show some significant swings
Good to see u bud… THIS YEAR im gonna hop on them ponies with you a bit.
As for the line moves…… I dont think its sharp. The moves go right along with the trends…. Except Nebraska/NW…. That drop to -12 is suprising but not worrisome this late. I saw a lot of “experts” picking Northwestern there just flat out not trusting Nebraska yet… makes sense public would agree. Its kinda tough cuz you got new QB and new OC on Huskers side… Which naturally would make you think of slow start til you get sone chemistry…. But Im on the OVER 49.5 there. I think We see points. Nebraska and NW are both pretty decent in pace of play and NW offense should be better than last year. New Nebraska OC will want to sling it and put up points. And the conspiracy theorist in me thinks this is a showcase chance for college football overseas to get some new fans…. All this = entertaining game to me. GL my friend. Look forward to shooting the shit with you this season
Good to see u bud… THIS YEAR im gonna hop on them ponies with you a bit.
As for the line moves…… I dont think its sharp. The moves go right along with the trends…. Except Nebraska/NW…. That drop to -12 is suprising but not worrisome this late. I saw a lot of “experts” picking Northwestern there just flat out not trusting Nebraska yet… makes sense public would agree. Its kinda tough cuz you got new QB and new OC on Huskers side… Which naturally would make you think of slow start til you get sone chemistry…. But Im on the OVER 49.5 there. I think We see points. Nebraska and NW are both pretty decent in pace of play and NW offense should be better than last year. New Nebraska OC will want to sling it and put up points. And the conspiracy theorist in me thinks this is a showcase chance for college football overseas to get some new fans…. All this = entertaining game to me. GL my friend. Look forward to shooting the shit with you this season
My focus is NCAAF due diligence looking at analytics and writeups/threads in here ...picking up player moves and tendencies which should keep me busy and away from horse capping until a week from now. My fave and most successful harness nights are Thursdays and Tuesdays....when they drop Tuesday, I will play Monday. I only play the occasional Friday or Sat card
Looking forward to your NCAAF angles and stances...we tend to think similarly in finding the 'nugget' game and love the debates bro and intel you provide and maybe I throw an analytic to chew on....looking forward to it
All the best and good luck
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
My focus is NCAAF due diligence looking at analytics and writeups/threads in here ...picking up player moves and tendencies which should keep me busy and away from horse capping until a week from now. My fave and most successful harness nights are Thursdays and Tuesdays....when they drop Tuesday, I will play Monday. I only play the occasional Friday or Sat card
Looking forward to your NCAAF angles and stances...we tend to think similarly in finding the 'nugget' game and love the debates bro and intel you provide and maybe I throw an analytic to chew on....looking forward to it
Okay, time to piss of some of the skeptics and talk about why and when one should pay attn to line movement.
Many schools of thought on this one. I believe that one cannot use line movement by itself (in a vacuum). To really understand line movement, you have to have some idea of which sides the public is betting. You can use any of the consensus sites but use ones that are drawing from a large pool of bettors (like Sports Action Network which used to be Sports Insights)
I am not going to give away the store here and go into too much detail. Coupling line movement, consensus of bets, consensus of cash, number of bets on the game and a few other things will give you a good idea of what you need to know.
And if you are a skeptic, that is cool too. I am not here to sell anything.
Okay, time to piss of some of the skeptics and talk about why and when one should pay attn to line movement.
Many schools of thought on this one. I believe that one cannot use line movement by itself (in a vacuum). To really understand line movement, you have to have some idea of which sides the public is betting. You can use any of the consensus sites but use ones that are drawing from a large pool of bettors (like Sports Action Network which used to be Sports Insights)
I am not going to give away the store here and go into too much detail. Coupling line movement, consensus of bets, consensus of cash, number of bets on the game and a few other things will give you a good idea of what you need to know.
And if you are a skeptic, that is cool too. I am not here to sell anything.
You need to find out which games are being the most heavily bet. You also need to know the consensus # of bets AND the consensus amount of cash on each site. Size of the line move is critical. Was it a sudden PULSE move of 1 pt or more or was it a drip drip increase over a week or so.
You need to find out which games are being the most heavily bet. You also need to know the consensus # of bets AND the consensus amount of cash on each site. Size of the line move is critical. Was it a sudden PULSE move of 1 pt or more or was it a drip drip increase over a week or so.
Any reason specific for one game you can see mid to late week reasons?
By the way, BET365 handles more action than any other betting site in the world apparently and I can tell ya from using it for over 15 yrs now, when a line moves Thursday to Saturday OPPOSITE trend like NW did today, it tends to hit at a decent % which I plan to track this year (that's my first entry of a reversal)
Does it hit all the time, hell no but patterns, intel, analytics spiced in with know how of teams/coaches tendencies and situations are a COCKTAIL, and agree COMBATO....not in of itself a reason to go that way!
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Any reason specific for one game you can see mid to late week reasons?
By the way, BET365 handles more action than any other betting site in the world apparently and I can tell ya from using it for over 15 yrs now, when a line moves Thursday to Saturday OPPOSITE trend like NW did today, it tends to hit at a decent % which I plan to track this year (that's my first entry of a reversal)
Does it hit all the time, hell no but patterns, intel, analytics spiced in with know how of teams/coaches tendencies and situations are a COCKTAIL, and agree COMBATO....not in of itself a reason to go that way!
Hey Duck, shouldn't your early calls move the line? I say that with respect....
You've been hitting at a high % the last couple of seasons. MegaLocks used to move lines....I saw it when he finally took a side mid week and sure enough, by the morning the line would shrink or grow
Put in a few more years and just maybe? You and Bridge are pretty consistent 55%+ and appreciate the free insight you guys throw out
Cheers
Got a side for NB/NW at -12 Husks ? Not sure if you played this game in your thread
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Hey Duck, shouldn't your early calls move the line? I say that with respect....
You've been hitting at a high % the last couple of seasons. MegaLocks used to move lines....I saw it when he finally took a side mid week and sure enough, by the morning the line would shrink or grow
Put in a few more years and just maybe? You and Bridge are pretty consistent 55%+ and appreciate the free insight you guys throw out
Cheers
Got a side for NB/NW at -12 Husks ? Not sure if you played this game in your thread
Hey Duck, shouldn't your early calls move the line? I say that with respect....
You've been hitting at a high % the last couple of seasons. MegaLocks used to move lines....I saw it when he finally took a side mid week and sure enough, by the morning the line would shrink or grow
Put in a few more years and just maybe? You and Bridge are pretty consistent 55%+ and appreciate the free insight you guys throw out
Cheers
Got a side for NB/NW at -12 Husks ? Not sure if you played this game in your thread
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Hey Duck, shouldn't your early calls move the line? I say that with respect....
You've been hitting at a high % the last couple of seasons. MegaLocks used to move lines....I saw it when he finally took a side mid week and sure enough, by the morning the line would shrink or grow
Put in a few more years and just maybe? You and Bridge are pretty consistent 55%+ and appreciate the free insight you guys throw out
Cheers
Got a side for NB/NW at -12 Husks ? Not sure if you played this game in your thread
Sharps dont wait until a day or 2 before the game...if they make a move on a game its almost immediately due to a line they like, or if later its on some inside news that hasnt broke to the public yet....
Sharps dont wait until a day or 2 before the game...if they make a move on a game its almost immediately due to a line they like, or if later its on some inside news that hasnt broke to the public yet....
Last part of your statement....hasn't broke to the public before line move ....that's what I find interesting and wondered sometimes. SHARPS have inside info from coaches or others close to the team? We know that is not 'legal' but ....
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Last part of your statement....hasn't broke to the public before line move ....that's what I find interesting and wondered sometimes. SHARPS have inside info from coaches or others close to the team? We know that is not 'legal' but ....
Nebraska line just moved down another half point in last 60-90 minutes.....if Duck is right, houses want action on NW as the steam was clearly with Husks since the line opened
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
Nebraska line just moved down another half point in last 60-90 minutes.....if Duck is right, houses want action on NW as the steam was clearly with Husks since the line opened
In some cases, the large sharp groups/syndicates have to wait until a day or two before in order to get their amounts down. Limits are highest at this point.
In some cases, the large sharp groups/syndicates have to wait until a day or two before in order to get their amounts down. Limits are highest at this point.
Seeing -9 at Bookmaker .. BM really good about pulling things down if there's breaking news .. don't know bet365 maybe just taking a break from all the vandy money lol .. you can only imagine how much is gunna get dumped on them being the week zero late night degen prime time closer win it all back and much more game ..
and let's say that comes true and vandy romps in a degen money ball hurricane .. How long is W.KY gunna stick around in that -13 .. WKY I think blows AP to smithereens .. that's the first game everyone will at least check the score of it ... I was saying in my thread git'cher WKY bet down sooner than later if yer playing .. could see a decent middle ground if Hawaii is realllly DOA tomorrow night .. WKY is the midnight super degen prime time slot super duper get it all back time slot next week .. woah mama .. wouldn't totally count out -21 if the lead up goes according to plan ..
Seeing -9 at Bookmaker .. BM really good about pulling things down if there's breaking news .. don't know bet365 maybe just taking a break from all the vandy money lol .. you can only imagine how much is gunna get dumped on them being the week zero late night degen prime time closer win it all back and much more game ..
and let's say that comes true and vandy romps in a degen money ball hurricane .. How long is W.KY gunna stick around in that -13 .. WKY I think blows AP to smithereens .. that's the first game everyone will at least check the score of it ... I was saying in my thread git'cher WKY bet down sooner than later if yer playing .. could see a decent middle ground if Hawaii is realllly DOA tomorrow night .. WKY is the midnight super degen prime time slot super duper get it all back time slot next week .. woah mama .. wouldn't totally count out -21 if the lead up goes according to plan ..
That would be a crazy move on WKY if it happened and lots of pent up demand to bet too......plus, everyone has a full $$ account
Biggest betting income companies in the world (Bet365 #3 and I use it due to the variety > horses, soccer, other, political, you name it and its IN-GAME offerings are unreal ....turned a lot of friends to this....they also payout IN-GAME totals when hit so you can swing into something else right away)
That would be a crazy move on WKY if it happened and lots of pent up demand to bet too......plus, everyone has a full $$ account
Biggest betting income companies in the world (Bet365 #3 and I use it due to the variety > horses, soccer, other, political, you name it and its IN-GAME offerings are unreal ....turned a lot of friends to this....they also payout IN-GAME totals when hit so you can swing into something else right away)
Doubt its all this late breaking news on every one of the week zero games .. maybe ebbs and flows of money from every degen from here to mars playing the good sounding favs and newsletters / system players saying its a value cuz the line has moved a few points now ..
I raeally doubt big money sharps are all that sharp on any of these maybe depth charts coming out and some surprises about who got off the plane .. I doubt its because Frankie Vegas dropped a bomb on NU at +13.5 because +12.5 wasn't attractive enough .. yeah ebbs and flows from touts and newsletters .. think Neb degens were like oh shit I gotta take them -13.5 before it hits 14.. books know no way they're puting that at 14 .. so that money not coming in welp better dip back to reality .. im just a casual observer .. but who knows maybe IRA agents spiked Casey T's Guinness and he's gunna have a case of ye' olde rum flu for a couple days lol ..
Generally expect totals to shade down if anything. im sure enough folks remember getting slaughtered betting over on all those 70+ pt totals early LY .. Also expect lines to tighten up generally ... maybe not on some of these super duper low ret pro teams but any of these big favs maybe not seeming as sure thing high 30's like back in May.. also recall how points of any kind and esp home dogs were just so money LY .. lotta folks left clappin chalk last year ..
Doubt its all this late breaking news on every one of the week zero games .. maybe ebbs and flows of money from every degen from here to mars playing the good sounding favs and newsletters / system players saying its a value cuz the line has moved a few points now ..
I raeally doubt big money sharps are all that sharp on any of these maybe depth charts coming out and some surprises about who got off the plane .. I doubt its because Frankie Vegas dropped a bomb on NU at +13.5 because +12.5 wasn't attractive enough .. yeah ebbs and flows from touts and newsletters .. think Neb degens were like oh shit I gotta take them -13.5 before it hits 14.. books know no way they're puting that at 14 .. so that money not coming in welp better dip back to reality .. im just a casual observer .. but who knows maybe IRA agents spiked Casey T's Guinness and he's gunna have a case of ye' olde rum flu for a couple days lol ..
Generally expect totals to shade down if anything. im sure enough folks remember getting slaughtered betting over on all those 70+ pt totals early LY .. Also expect lines to tighten up generally ... maybe not on some of these super duper low ret pro teams but any of these big favs maybe not seeming as sure thing high 30's like back in May.. also recall how points of any kind and esp home dogs were just so money LY .. lotta folks left clappin chalk last year ..
I saw the swing on the lines overnight on Wednesday night into Thursday morning on my site....I am up most nights till 1am-2am EST and the site I use is 5 hours ahead at GMT
In most years, I see see major SHARP line moves in first 24 hrs and dormie lines till Friday-Saturday but what you say is what I am gonna watch for more as well
Beer is gotta be earned from winning or hard work. Andy Dufresne agrees.
I saw the swing on the lines overnight on Wednesday night into Thursday morning on my site....I am up most nights till 1am-2am EST and the site I use is 5 hours ahead at GMT
In most years, I see see major SHARP line moves in first 24 hrs and dormie lines till Friday-Saturday but what you say is what I am gonna watch for more as well
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