College Football Picks for Labor Day Weekend
Let's get this season off to a great start! I am new to Covers and will be posting some College Football picks each week. The early weeks are the best weeks to make some great money. Without further ado...1. South Carolina +3.5 @ N.C. State (2 Units)
The key in this game revolves solely on the matchup of the weak N.C. State O-Line vs. a strong S.C. D-Line. All reports from Spring and Fall practices in Raleigh indicate a continuation of the O-Line problems that began to manifest themselves last year. I my opinion, the fact that N.C. State will be unable to block the agressive S.C. pass rush should result in a long day for the N.C. State offense.
Also, S.C. Spring and Fall practice reports indicate a tougher approach on the O-Line and a new focus on the running game. The results have apparently paid off.
Furthermore, N.C. State has lost their best Linebacker due to an auto accident. No doubt, Steve Spurrier has been scheming for N.C. State all Spring and Fall long and should have his offense clicking on all cylinders.
Given S.C.'s sucess on Thursday Night games (5-2 SU last 5 yrs) I expect S.C. to play very well and keep this game close and possibly win outright.
2. Troy -6.5 @ Bowling Green (2 Units)
Bowling Green is breaking in a new coach and a new system. Generally, early results can be rocky when doing such. Furthermore, Bowling Green only returns 3 starters on defense.
Troy is a solid team year in and year out. The last 3 yrs Troy is 7-2 ATS as an away favorite. I expect Troy to have a sizable Special Teams advantage in this game, as Bowling Green is replacing all returnmen and a kicker, while Troy coaches always emphasize this aspect of the game, achieving great results each year. Look for Troy to play very well and walk away from this one with a big win.
3. Kentucky -14 @ Miami, OH (3 Units)
I love Kentucky in this matchup!!! Miami, OH is breaking in a new coach and new systems. They also lose three key starters on their O-Line, as they lose their starting Tackles and Center. They also lose 2 All-MAC Linebackers, and the Defense as a whole loses 3 of its top 4 tacklers. On Special Teams, Miami, OH must replace its Kicker and Punter. Further more, this team was only 2-10 last year and I wouldn't expect much improvement in Year One under a new regime.
Meanwhile, Kentucky returns 7 O-Linemen with starting experience. Also, Kentucky will bring back a QB and RB's with experience. Expect Kentucky to pound the ball against an undersized and undermanned Miami, OH Team.
Also, Kentucky has a strong D-Line which will be able to dominate a weak and inexperienced Miami, OH Offensive Line. While Kentucky will be inexperienced at Linebacker, they have 5 returning in Secondary with starting experience.
Kentucky also returns its Kicker and Punter and has a sizable Special Teams edge. Last Kentucky is 4-2 ATS as away favorite over the last 9 years. Expect a nice and easy cover here!
4. Baylor +1 @ Wake Forest (2 Units)
Beware the Scrambling Quarterback! Its the ultimate X-Factor in college football and Baylor has a great one in Griffin! Griffin should make a huge jump this year as a Sophmore starter. Look for a big coming out party in this game against Wake. Baylor also returns solid Running Backs and a deep receiving corp. They did lose two excellent O-Linemen but have 5 O-Linemen on the roster with starting experience and should be good along the line. This offense should be explosive.
There is an abundance of talent and experience on the D-Line and at Linebacker. The Secondary also has alot of experience.
Baylor was 4-1 ATS last year as an away dog and I look for that trend to carry over into this game.
Wake should be very good on offense. QB Skinner is excellent and they should be able to put up lots of points. However, the Defense only returns 4 starters, including the loss of several NFL Draft Choices. Wake is not a place that easilly re-loads talent so expect a substantial dropoff here.
Wake is also 8-19-1 the last 9 yrs as a Home Favorite and I expect this trend to continue. Look for Baylor to play very well in this game and expose Wake's shortcomings on Defense.
5. Cincinatti @ Rutgers -5.5 (2 Units)
Rutgers had some key losses, including an NFL QB and two NFL Wideouts. But they return a Senior QB with experience and a great Offensive line. A talented group of Running Backs will take advantage of the holes opened up by this unit.
On defense Rutgers does lose 2 NFL players from Secondary but have a deep and experienced Linebacking corp returning. Greg Schiano should have this defense ready to play.
I think Rutgers is the correct play in this game and that has more to do with Cincinatti's losses on the Defensive side of the ball than anything else. Cinci only returns 1 starter on defense and this is not a program that re-loads easilly. Even if it were, losing 10 starters on a unit is extremely difficult to recover from. Furthermore, a new Defensive Coordinator is with the team and they are switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense.
I do expect the offense to be pretty good, but I do not expect that the offense will be able to compensate for the losses on the Defensive side of the ball. Cinci is also 3-16 over its last 19 SU on their 1st Road game of the year. So the trend says they will lose...its only a question of by how much. I look for a big Rutgers win here at Home compliments of a punishing ground game.
6. Georgia +5.5 @ Oklahoma State (4 Units)
Oklahoma State is a popular Top Ten pick in many pre-season publications. Naturally, these publications are blown away by the Offensive fireworks that this team is capable of. This team is loaded and has excellent skill position players and standouts at Tackle on the Offensive line.
However, the Defensive side of the ball is troubling. Last year, this Unit surrendered over 28 points per game. 6 starters return from last year's unit. This is my biggest concern with Oklahoma State. Also Oklahoma State must replace both Guards on the O-Linemen and have a new Center on the O-Line as well. Georgia has two future NFL Draftchoices at Defensive Tackle in Owens and Atkins and I expect this key matchup to swing in Georgia's favor. Expect Georgia's interior D-Linemen to disrupt the Oklahoma State Offense all day long.
Georgia also returns all of its O-Linemen this year and has a 5th year Senior at Quarterback. I expect QB Cox to step in and play well behind the strong O-Line and to establish a good raport with wideout AJ Green.
I expect Georgia to bounce back in a big way on the Defensive side of the ball. The Linebacker corp is solid and the Secondary should be fair. Georgia must generate a pass rush this year, which is something they couldn't do last year. However, reports from Spring and Fall are encouraging in this regard.
Georgia is 30-4 under Richt SU on the road and is 7-2 ATS as a Road Dog under Richt. Those trends are hard to ignore! Georgia is a great pick here and one of my favorites on the weekend.