Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTime41885:
Florida -1.5
Key Stats
Auburn 3rd down % for year - 40.2%
Opp. 3rd down % for year - 51%
Florida 3rd down % for year - 36.1% (skewed from last two games)
Opp. 3rd down % for year - 30.7%
First off, I believe the line gives this game away. Florida coming off two blowout losses against the #1 and #2 team in the country, and now they have to go on the road again with a backup qb. The books see the same games, they set this line for a reason. The public will be all over auburn to cover, and I personally think auburn is a good trap bet this week. Looking at auburn's losses, what beats them is speed. Auburn can tackle in open space, and I don't see that changing this week with Demps and Rainey. Auburn's defense can find a way to stall drives against north and south teams that like to come straight at you, hence South Carolina (if Garcia could have made some throws, they win). Florida's speed and athleticism will show up saturday and believe they dial up some plays to get their playmakers in open space on the outside (look for a lot of bubble screens and short passes). Also, Auburn wide receivers are still banged up and don't see them putting up more than 17. I believe Trotter throws at least two picks this week.
Final Score Prediction: 24-17 UF
Very nice write-up with keen observations. Having said that I jumped on Auburn at pick on Sunday as posted here. Auburn and Florida are both very young. Auburn never had a chance to win the SEC this year while Florida was under the illusion that they could compete with the big boys and are disillusioned after Bama and LSU and need to be off or at home this week more than most. Yes, Auburn is as well after Arkansas, but are much more where they thought they would be right now then Florida by far no matter what anyone says. Auburn has owned Florida the past several games (although to be fair I do not put too much stock in that no more than judging how Auburn will play based on earlier games because of the youth except on intangibles and a few other things), but I do know it is a night game in Auburn which is very tough on visiting road teams (as several SEC stadiums) and will help Auburn's youth and hurt Florida's youth.
I cannot dispute your write-up, it is accurate as to the past and while I myself predicted Trotter throwing a couple of picks in the red zone against Arkansas in which I made a bet against Auburn and the under, do not see it this week. Do not be surprised if Moseley finally gets a shot and if so he will remain the QB and do much better then Trotter (just my opinion here, nothing to substantiate this comment yet, but it's time), but regardless they will play it close to the vest now down there with Frazier getting more and more reps in the red zone and running with success against the Florida defense up the gut along with Dyer, not putting Trotter in too many chances to take points off the board.
The intangible are leaning hard and heavy toward Auburn here and will make the difference. Again, your write-up is very well written and hard to argue against from the outside, but Auburn should win this one. Auburn will get hammered several more times this year, but not Saturday night at Jordan-Hare, they will play one of their best games of the season as a team.
Best Of Luck and we will see...