Dr Strangelove Week 4

7-13

 

Not the greatest start to the season. But it's early. The dust should start clearing on the 'running dogs' after around the 4th week when we get a few more stats under the belt. Hopefully things will pick up then. Got a few early ones for now.

 

Florida +7

Nevada +11

North Carolina +7

 

BTW....

 

I'd like to introduce you to ODU - the nation's leading rusher (yds/rush) - they cover about 75% as dog, and win about 50% outright....

 

Ha - don't think I've seen them on your card? ..... BOL this week buddy .........

 

@bookieassassin

 Love that Marcus Aurelius quote, have that hanging in my office.

@DrStrangelove

Everyone knows it takes a few weeks for your dogs to line up. I'm thinking this might be a good week to get started. Much luck to you and thanks for all the time and effort you put in so we gamblers can have a little more fun with this great game called FOOTBALL.....

Until the Va Tech game I didn't know for sure. I did have the under in that game thinking the run games would keep it under....not! The totals have killed me this season. I'll be looking closely at ODU in a couple weeks when they play Liberty. Especially if they are the dogs. BOL BA...

The 5th week is usually when I start seriously looking at the run games. And I have to consider the competition up to that point. Some of these teams have played nothing but pansies to pad their stats. Those are the ones I have to be careful of. A few of the "potential" running dogs this week are ASU, Miami Ohio, Troy, UNC, Nevada, AF, Hawaii. But keep in mind, some of these teams or some of their opponents have only played one FBS game. So not much to go on. 

@DrStrangelove

 Well, soon enough you will start to feel it. I live about 50 miles south of Troy University, and that team has a lot of heart. Troy often gets overlooked with Alabama and Auburn getting all the attention, but they've always been competitive.

I am on Miami Ohio 

 

UNLV might have beat a big name sucky school UCLA but a road chalk and a potentially bad run D should cause them adversity in this game.  

Yeah, this UCLA debacle has thrown a kink into my handicapping. I thought Utah looked impressive beating the Bruins. But now that we know who they are, not so impressive. Which kind of brings me back to square one. I've downgraded some of these teams. But I'm afraid to downgrade them too much this early, so I'll be sitting on the sidelines with some of these teams until I can get more data or they pass the eyeball test.

Doc - just wondering why you like Florida…Is it a contrarian play…The line opened at 9.5 and now it’s down to 7.5…Do you really believe Florida has the talent and the mindset to go from a home loss to an overachieving South Florida in a lookahead debacle, then go to Death Valley, and play a competitive yet flawed game and loss, then going into a very hostile Hard Rock stadium with their fair weathered quasi Subway Miami alumni and cover the chalk if not win?     I am on the fence, but strongly leaning Miami…Who I personally hate with a passion…See the 1991 Cotton Bowl (1990 Season)  that I attended in person…

 

 

Also, how will your Sooners do this week against upstart Auburn…?

 

Thank you in advance and good luck in week 4! 

 

Thou art wise ...

Best wishes this week (and of course all weeks) DR

 

Good luck Dr. S.  

The line actually opened at 10 and was quickly bet down to 7. I thought maybe it would go under 7 so I took it. It wasn't the best of plays on my part since it's back up to 7.5. So I've now got a bad line and a bad coach to deal with...ha! LH, I can definitely see why 75% of the public likes Miami. But I still think it is two teams of very similar talent. Cristobal might be the little better coach, although I've never been a big fan of him either. My power number on the game is Miami -6. I think the game comes down to two things: Can Napier get his team up for two big games in a row, and can Florida cut down on their mistakes? The Gators outplayed LSU in Baton Rouge but couldn't cover because of 5 turnovers and an 87 yard td pass called back for holding. If they clean that up, I think they can stay with Miami. If not, then we could see a Miami blowout. It's either all going to come crumbling down for Napier on Saturday night, or they'll play good enough for him to keep his job or maybe even win outright. But I certainly can't fault you for liking Miami. I mean, to this point, what have they done wrong? Either way, good luck this week...

Hey Doc,

 

 

I think perceptions and results are skewed on a lot of teams this year and perhaps, last year it was starting to really change. Our perception of these teams is not matching results last 15 games over 1.25 seasons:

Alabama

Michigan

Oklahoma (in some respects no longer the offensive juggernaut)

Utah (seriously, look at Whittingham's ability to recruit/win big games last 2 years even at home!)

Georgia (does Smart suffer from NFL poaching so he cannot build a champion? - this does not seem to bother Ohio St or Oregon)

Florida 

Wisconsin

UCF

Oklahoma St.

San Diego St

 

At times I find myself (last year especially) falling back on these teams and taking them only to lose.... 

 

I have laid off of the RUNNING DOGS angle the past couple years but just might climb aboard this year ! When I look at the team list above.....I notice quite a few of those have had lesser run games in the past couple of years than traditionally...hmmmmm