I'm not going to get too far ahead of myself because of all of the portal hee haw and coaching changes. But I do want to play these later games right now since I'm getting some decent value. I'm going to continue to ride the hot streak with the running dogs. The potential running dogs (PRD) were 10-3 last bowl season, but the actual bowl running dogs went 13-0 LY. The running dogs theory is pretty simple, an underdog who outrushes their opponent WILL cover the spread 66.67% of the time. The running dogs in this week's bowls are UTSA, Louisville, BYU, Wazzu & Florida. But there are some QB concerns with Louisville, BYU & Florida, so I'm still undecided on these games.
I'm not going to get too far ahead of myself because of all of the portal hee haw and coaching changes. But I do want to play these later games right now since I'm getting some decent value. I'm going to continue to ride the hot streak with the running dogs. The potential running dogs (PRD) were 10-3 last bowl season, but the actual bowl running dogs went 13-0 LY. The running dogs theory is pretty simple, an underdog who outrushes their opponent WILL cover the spread 66.67% of the time. The running dogs in this week's bowls are UTSA, Louisville, BYU, Wazzu & Florida. But there are some QB concerns with Louisville, BYU & Florida, so I'm still undecided on these games.
Hard to argue with 10-3 record last year. Definitely will be following this! Good luck!
3rd string qb for Florida is definitely a concern but if the kid can be a game manager with the short and easy passes and hand the ball off, I can see the light. PAC12 usually not very good in early kick off games and early bowl season games for that matter. Maybe Napier can pull one off here.
Hard to argue with 10-3 record last year. Definitely will be following this! Good luck!
3rd string qb for Florida is definitely a concern but if the kid can be a game manager with the short and easy passes and hand the ball off, I can see the light. PAC12 usually not very good in early kick off games and early bowl season games for that matter. Maybe Napier can pull one off here.
Hard to argue with 10-3 record last year. Definitely will be following this! Good luck! 3rd string qb for Florida is definitely a concern but if the kid can be a game manager with the short and easy passes and hand the ball off, I can see the light. PAC12 usually not very good in early kick off games and early bowl season games for that matter. Maybe Napier can pull one off here.
Yeah, I'm still working on this one. Except for Richardson, the UF offense remains pretty much intact. The backup QB is a concern, but I'm not real high on OSU's QB either. SEC vs Pac-12. it's still an iffy play. I'm just going to play this one by ear and see how the line moves if any before I pull the trigger. But it has to be the Gators or nothing for me. BOL
Hard to argue with 10-3 record last year. Definitely will be following this! Good luck! 3rd string qb for Florida is definitely a concern but if the kid can be a game manager with the short and easy passes and hand the ball off, I can see the light. PAC12 usually not very good in early kick off games and early bowl season games for that matter. Maybe Napier can pull one off here.
Yeah, I'm still working on this one. Except for Richardson, the UF offense remains pretty much intact. The backup QB is a concern, but I'm not real high on OSU's QB either. SEC vs Pac-12. it's still an iffy play. I'm just going to play this one by ear and see how the line moves if any before I pull the trigger. But it has to be the Gators or nothing for me. BOL
Season: 94-77 I'm not going to get too far ahead of myself because of all of the portal hee haw and coaching changes. But I do want to play these later games right now since I'm getting some decent value. I'm going to continue to ride the hot streak with the running dogs. The potential running dogs (PRD) were 10-3 last bowl season, but the actual bowl running dogs went 13-0 LY. The running dogs theory is pretty simple, an underdog who outrushes their opponent WILL cover the spread 66.67% of the time. The running dogs in this week's bowls are UTSA, Louisville, BYU, Wazzu & Florida. But there are some QB concerns with Louisville, BYU & Florida, so I'm still undecided on these games. Penn State +3 (-120) (PRD) ML Parlay: Michigan/Florida St. (-120)
Season: 94-77 I'm not going to get too far ahead of myself because of all of the portal hee haw and coaching changes. But I do want to play these later games right now since I'm getting some decent value. I'm going to continue to ride the hot streak with the running dogs. The potential running dogs (PRD) were 10-3 last bowl season, but the actual bowl running dogs went 13-0 LY. The running dogs theory is pretty simple, an underdog who outrushes their opponent WILL cover the spread 66.67% of the time. The running dogs in this week's bowls are UTSA, Louisville, BYU, Wazzu & Florida. But there are some QB concerns with Louisville, BYU & Florida, so I'm still undecided on these games. Penn State +3 (-120) (PRD) ML Parlay: Michigan/Florida St. (-120)
Sounds like Billy is saying some of the xfer guys might end up playing I think he must mean some of the LB's that didn't play much or at all this year .. nice treat for them but I think that's a struggle spot if there ever was one esp vs this really good OL and rush attack .. game seems unplayable but very true the WR situation is actually not bad getting some guys back and maybe new QB can throw to them .. I'd say if we realllly felt like UF wanted to show up and win this one I could see taking 10 but that just doesn't seem likely .. even if it was seems unlikely I'd ever get a decent enough feeling about it to play .. too many uglies and uncertainties to put money on this one IMO ..
Like the Penn State idea, Utah B2B rose bowls is awesome but not the magic of last year .. Kincade and the star on D are already opting out .. makes sense ...
Sounds like Billy is saying some of the xfer guys might end up playing I think he must mean some of the LB's that didn't play much or at all this year .. nice treat for them but I think that's a struggle spot if there ever was one esp vs this really good OL and rush attack .. game seems unplayable but very true the WR situation is actually not bad getting some guys back and maybe new QB can throw to them .. I'd say if we realllly felt like UF wanted to show up and win this one I could see taking 10 but that just doesn't seem likely .. even if it was seems unlikely I'd ever get a decent enough feeling about it to play .. too many uglies and uncertainties to put money on this one IMO ..
Like the Penn State idea, Utah B2B rose bowls is awesome but not the magic of last year .. Kincade and the star on D are already opting out .. makes sense ...
LSU in that same 'wait around for a month' spot and man they are just getting picked apart by the portal and the draft now especially the secondary been well throttled from the starters down to the bone at some spots ... really wish I could count on the key parts of Purdue showing up .. O'connell hobbling end of Mich game I feel like he and Chuck Sizzler are would team up for this one and kinda rally the team to show up but coach gone down to ville and idk think Oconnell is out of eligibility maybe last hurrah maybe a business decision .. and w Ill DC coming in the best of the D should be sticking around, gunna be a long line to play on that D next year! .. gotta at least hear O'connell is in before hitting that one but yeah 10.5 i'd keep that one on the radar ..
LSU in that same 'wait around for a month' spot and man they are just getting picked apart by the portal and the draft now especially the secondary been well throttled from the starters down to the bone at some spots ... really wish I could count on the key parts of Purdue showing up .. O'connell hobbling end of Mich game I feel like he and Chuck Sizzler are would team up for this one and kinda rally the team to show up but coach gone down to ville and idk think Oconnell is out of eligibility maybe last hurrah maybe a business decision .. and w Ill DC coming in the best of the D should be sticking around, gunna be a long line to play on that D next year! .. gotta at least hear O'connell is in before hitting that one but yeah 10.5 i'd keep that one on the radar ..
The portal is why I'm debating playing some of these games involving the running dogs. I've got 18 probable running dog (PRD) teams this year, but at least half of them are going to have some parts missing. And I've got a couple other PRD's that are G5 teams vs P5 teams, which has always been a weak spot for my running dogs theory since conference strength alone can sometimes overpower a perceived running game advantage. This is my 17th year of playing the PRD's and I'm 60% with them in those 16 years in bowls with just 3 losing seasons. But I can always tell when there might be trouble ahead for the dogs, and this bowl season feels like it's going to be a little shaky. I know I'm not going to get too far ahead of myself this year. Remember when the only problem we had with these bowls is players going out and partying too much and getting a few suspensions here and there? Those were the good ole days...
The portal is why I'm debating playing some of these games involving the running dogs. I've got 18 probable running dog (PRD) teams this year, but at least half of them are going to have some parts missing. And I've got a couple other PRD's that are G5 teams vs P5 teams, which has always been a weak spot for my running dogs theory since conference strength alone can sometimes overpower a perceived running game advantage. This is my 17th year of playing the PRD's and I'm 60% with them in those 16 years in bowls with just 3 losing seasons. But I can always tell when there might be trouble ahead for the dogs, and this bowl season feels like it's going to be a little shaky. I know I'm not going to get too far ahead of myself this year. Remember when the only problem we had with these bowls is players going out and partying too much and getting a few suspensions here and there? Those were the good ole days...
I think the best of the running dogs in this week's bowls is Florida despite their defensive weaknesses. I just think 10 is too many points and Oregon St is in a bit of a letdown mode after upsetting the Ducks in that big 4th quarter comeback in their last game. Despite being a first year coach, Napier has a good history in bowl games winning his last 3 bowls with ULL. That counts for more than people think. I wish I was more confident of BYU and Wazzu. But with BYU QB Jaren Hall injuring his ankle against Stanford just 2 weeks ago, he'll be very questionable for this game. And his backup Conover has entered the portal and left the program. So I'm still debating this play. SMU program hasn't won a bowl game in 10 years. So they are probably pretty hungry for a win under their new HC. Tough call on this one. I wish I was more sold on Wazzu. A P5 being a dog to a G5 program is the only thing I like about it. But damn, Wazzu has already lost 14 players to the portal. One of the tops in the nation. And Fresno is playing pretty damn good football right now with Haener back in the lineup. BOL this week.
I think the best of the running dogs in this week's bowls is Florida despite their defensive weaknesses. I just think 10 is too many points and Oregon St is in a bit of a letdown mode after upsetting the Ducks in that big 4th quarter comeback in their last game. Despite being a first year coach, Napier has a good history in bowl games winning his last 3 bowls with ULL. That counts for more than people think. I wish I was more confident of BYU and Wazzu. But with BYU QB Jaren Hall injuring his ankle against Stanford just 2 weeks ago, he'll be very questionable for this game. And his backup Conover has entered the portal and left the program. So I'm still debating this play. SMU program hasn't won a bowl game in 10 years. So they are probably pretty hungry for a win under their new HC. Tough call on this one. I wish I was more sold on Wazzu. A P5 being a dog to a G5 program is the only thing I like about it. But damn, Wazzu has already lost 14 players to the portal. One of the tops in the nation. And Fresno is playing pretty damn good football right now with Haener back in the lineup. BOL this week.
I just saw where Messy St promoted Zach Arnett to HC just a couple days after the death of Mike Leach. This game poses kind of an interesting dilemma. Illinois is/was one of my running dogs and I originally took them at +1 when the lines first came out. But since then the line has flipped to Illinois -2. But the flip happened before Leach died. Makes me wonder if the public might not flip it again for sentimental reasons for MSU. Probably not, but I've seen stranger things happen when emotions get involved....A couple more line flips from running dogs to favorites are Duke +2.5/-2.5 and Iowa +3/-2. A few of my running dogs that have lost a little line value are Mizzou +2.5/+1, Kansas +4.5/+3, Wyoming +2.5/+1, Tulane +2.5/+1.5. A few that have gained line value are Wazzu +2.5/+3.5, Liberty +3.5/+5, Tennessee +3.5/+7!, BYU +2.5/+3.5.
I just saw where Messy St promoted Zach Arnett to HC just a couple days after the death of Mike Leach. This game poses kind of an interesting dilemma. Illinois is/was one of my running dogs and I originally took them at +1 when the lines first came out. But since then the line has flipped to Illinois -2. But the flip happened before Leach died. Makes me wonder if the public might not flip it again for sentimental reasons for MSU. Probably not, but I've seen stranger things happen when emotions get involved....A couple more line flips from running dogs to favorites are Duke +2.5/-2.5 and Iowa +3/-2. A few of my running dogs that have lost a little line value are Mizzou +2.5/+1, Kansas +4.5/+3, Wyoming +2.5/+1, Tulane +2.5/+1.5. A few that have gained line value are Wazzu +2.5/+3.5, Liberty +3.5/+5, Tennessee +3.5/+7!, BYU +2.5/+3.5.
@DrStrangelove Sounds like Billy is saying some of the xfer guys might end up playing I think he must mean some of the LB's that didn't play much or at all this year .. nice treat for them but I think that's a struggle spot if there ever was one esp vs this really good OL and rush attack .. game seems unplayable but very true the WR situation is actually not bad getting some guys back and maybe new QB can throw to them .. I'd say if we realllly felt like UF wanted to show up and win this one I could see taking 10 but that just doesn't seem likely .. even if it was seems unlikely I'd ever get a decent enough feeling about it to play .. too many uglies and uncertainties to put money on this one IMO .. Like the Penn State idea, Utah B2B rose bowls is awesome but not the magic of last year .. Kincade and the star on D are already opting out .. makes sense ...
It's not my favorite play, but I'm taking a stab at it. Jack Miller was a 4 star recruit and the backup to Stroud at Ohio St. and is scheduled to be their starting QB next year. So I'm gambling that he won't be a total screwup in trying to move the Gators offense. Napier is pretty good in these bowl games. He's 3-0 in his last 3 with ULL, so he takes these games serious. He's also 17-3-1 ATS as an underdog. I also kind of wonder where OSU's heads are going to be after that huge 4th quarter comeback and springing the upset on rival Oregon in the last game of the season. Letdown mode?
@DrStrangelove Sounds like Billy is saying some of the xfer guys might end up playing I think he must mean some of the LB's that didn't play much or at all this year .. nice treat for them but I think that's a struggle spot if there ever was one esp vs this really good OL and rush attack .. game seems unplayable but very true the WR situation is actually not bad getting some guys back and maybe new QB can throw to them .. I'd say if we realllly felt like UF wanted to show up and win this one I could see taking 10 but that just doesn't seem likely .. even if it was seems unlikely I'd ever get a decent enough feeling about it to play .. too many uglies and uncertainties to put money on this one IMO .. Like the Penn State idea, Utah B2B rose bowls is awesome but not the magic of last year .. Kincade and the star on D are already opting out .. makes sense ...
It's not my favorite play, but I'm taking a stab at it. Jack Miller was a 4 star recruit and the backup to Stroud at Ohio St. and is scheduled to be their starting QB next year. So I'm gambling that he won't be a total screwup in trying to move the Gators offense. Napier is pretty good in these bowl games. He's 3-0 in his last 3 with ULL, so he takes these games serious. He's also 17-3-1 ATS as an underdog. I also kind of wonder where OSU's heads are going to be after that huge 4th quarter comeback and springing the upset on rival Oregon in the last game of the season. Letdown mode?
You like North Texas even though Lettrell got fired? What is the motivation going to be for the players? Quote Originally Posted by DrStrangelove: Miami, Ohio +11 Florida +10 (sprinkling a little on the ML) So. Miss -5.5 North Texas +10.5
Phil Bennett is the interim coach. He's been around a long time and has HC experience at SMU. I'm not sure there is a whole lot of motivation for Boise either. They had 17 starters back this season and were aiming for bigger things like a better bowl and getting to play a Power 5 school. And now are relegated to a bowl that's being playing in the Meanies back yard. If North Texas didn't have a dangerous offense with a 29 year old QB who has thrown 32 TD passes this season to a really good WR unit I probably wouldn't have played it. NT hasn't won a bowl game in years under Littrell. Maybe Bennett can light a fire under them. I came close to just playing the over for this game since Boise hasn't faced any offensive juggernauts in their conference this season. NT doesn't have a defense to speak of, so there should be plenty of offense in this game. But I found out a long time ago that totals can be tricky when it comes to bowl games. You never know for sure what's going through a coaches mind when it comes to a (usually) meaningless game. Plus I've already lost 4.5 points of value from the opening line. Good luck this bowl season LH.
You like North Texas even though Lettrell got fired? What is the motivation going to be for the players? Quote Originally Posted by DrStrangelove: Miami, Ohio +11 Florida +10 (sprinkling a little on the ML) So. Miss -5.5 North Texas +10.5
Phil Bennett is the interim coach. He's been around a long time and has HC experience at SMU. I'm not sure there is a whole lot of motivation for Boise either. They had 17 starters back this season and were aiming for bigger things like a better bowl and getting to play a Power 5 school. And now are relegated to a bowl that's being playing in the Meanies back yard. If North Texas didn't have a dangerous offense with a 29 year old QB who has thrown 32 TD passes this season to a really good WR unit I probably wouldn't have played it. NT hasn't won a bowl game in years under Littrell. Maybe Bennett can light a fire under them. I came close to just playing the over for this game since Boise hasn't faced any offensive juggernauts in their conference this season. NT doesn't have a defense to speak of, so there should be plenty of offense in this game. But I found out a long time ago that totals can be tricky when it comes to bowl games. You never know for sure what's going through a coaches mind when it comes to a (usually) meaningless game. Plus I've already lost 4.5 points of value from the opening line. Good luck this bowl season LH.
Good to hear from you BA. I've been gone most of the day so I hadn't heard about McBride. I think he had something like 275 yards rushing in his last game against La Tech. UAB is going to miss him, but I won't....BOL this bowl season
Good to hear from you BA. I've been gone most of the day so I hadn't heard about McBride. I think he had something like 275 yards rushing in his last game against La Tech. UAB is going to miss him, but I won't....BOL this bowl season
Turnovers were a killer today. Hopefully EMU will play a cleaner game. Still undecided on Toledo/Liberty since Liberty is one of my running dogs. But with their top RB Dae Dae Hunter out for Liberty and Freeze gone, I've got a lean on Toledo. I just hate to give over a FG in this spot with Toledo HC Jason Candle's poor record in bowl games (0-4 SU/ATS). I'll probably have something on it tomorrow before kickoff.
Turnovers were a killer today. Hopefully EMU will play a cleaner game. Still undecided on Toledo/Liberty since Liberty is one of my running dogs. But with their top RB Dae Dae Hunter out for Liberty and Freeze gone, I've got a lean on Toledo. I just hate to give over a FG in this spot with Toledo HC Jason Candle's poor record in bowl games (0-4 SU/ATS). I'll probably have something on it tomorrow before kickoff.
as long as we see the last half of the year San Jose team I think we made right choice, it’s a small one but still like our side
I have leaned to both Liberty & Toledo, haha, my fair number is 1 on that one so slight value with Liberty but they struggled against run late in year & toledo coming healthy, toledo coach poor in postseason also a flag, will prob pass on this game
then added SAla to handle Western, check that matchup out my friend
nice job thus far, I would have talked you out of flowda lol
as long as we see the last half of the year San Jose team I think we made right choice, it’s a small one but still like our side
I have leaned to both Liberty & Toledo, haha, my fair number is 1 on that one so slight value with Liberty but they struggled against run late in year & toledo coming healthy, toledo coach poor in postseason also a flag, will prob pass on this game
then added SAla to handle Western, check that matchup out my friend
nice job thus far, I would have talked you out of flowda lol
I'm going to look a little closer at the S. Bama and Toledo games tonight. The problem is I hate going against the running dogs. And both WKU and Liberty are running dogs. EMU is one of my smaller plays because I don't really trust the MAC against anybody. It's more of a play against SJST and their one-dimensional offense. Mizzou and Air Force are definitely my two strongest plays this week. Both running dogs, although Mizzou could end up a running favorite by the time they kickoff. I got Mizzou at +3.5 and AF +6.5 on the opening lines, but I've been slow to post until I find out how many quitters we have going into the portal or declaring for the draft. Good luck Hoo. I hope you and the family have a great holiday
I'm going to look a little closer at the S. Bama and Toledo games tonight. The problem is I hate going against the running dogs. And both WKU and Liberty are running dogs. EMU is one of my smaller plays because I don't really trust the MAC against anybody. It's more of a play against SJST and their one-dimensional offense. Mizzou and Air Force are definitely my two strongest plays this week. Both running dogs, although Mizzou could end up a running favorite by the time they kickoff. I got Mizzou at +3.5 and AF +6.5 on the opening lines, but I've been slow to post until I find out how many quitters we have going into the portal or declaring for the draft. Good luck Hoo. I hope you and the family have a great holiday
@WahooS I'm going to look a little closer at the S. Bama and Toledo games tonight. The problem is I hate going against the running dogs. And both WKU and Liberty are running dogs. EMU is one of my smaller plays because I don't really trust the MAC against anybody. It's more of a play against SJST and their one-dimensional offense. Mizzou and Air Force are definitely my two strongest plays this week. Both running dogs, although Mizzou could end up a running favorite by the time they kickoff. I got Mizzou at +3.5 and AF +6.5 on the opening lines, but I've been slow to post until I find out how many quitters we have going into the portal or declaring for the draft. Good luck Hoo. I hope you and the family have a great holiday
im not sure what running dogs is (I’ll assume an underdog that is a better running team?)
but stay within your system if it’s proven for you, you don’t need me to win, that’s for sure
I personally feel like they are missing too much for this game, think they have 14 players in portal now & several opt outs, knowing the Qb wanted out even as the starter of a spread offense that is QB friendly says alot to me, just seems like a mismatch on paper with SAlab having such a solid pass defense, think wku is playing from behind in this one, I think SAla wins by 14+ so eager to see if I’m smart or insane haha
lean to Air Force with you but line feels a touch short for my liking , I wanted 7 & now it’s 4 most of my shops, may use them in teaser to plus 10.5, not sure they win straight up so betting them at only 4 seems like a reach on my end, going to be super cold for that game so I’m sure that helps you a bit, not sure what I’ll do on this one
I haven’t broke down Wake/Mizzou yet but getting to it tomorrow
@WahooS I'm going to look a little closer at the S. Bama and Toledo games tonight. The problem is I hate going against the running dogs. And both WKU and Liberty are running dogs. EMU is one of my smaller plays because I don't really trust the MAC against anybody. It's more of a play against SJST and their one-dimensional offense. Mizzou and Air Force are definitely my two strongest plays this week. Both running dogs, although Mizzou could end up a running favorite by the time they kickoff. I got Mizzou at +3.5 and AF +6.5 on the opening lines, but I've been slow to post until I find out how many quitters we have going into the portal or declaring for the draft. Good luck Hoo. I hope you and the family have a great holiday
im not sure what running dogs is (I’ll assume an underdog that is a better running team?)
but stay within your system if it’s proven for you, you don’t need me to win, that’s for sure
I personally feel like they are missing too much for this game, think they have 14 players in portal now & several opt outs, knowing the Qb wanted out even as the starter of a spread offense that is QB friendly says alot to me, just seems like a mismatch on paper with SAlab having such a solid pass defense, think wku is playing from behind in this one, I think SAla wins by 14+ so eager to see if I’m smart or insane haha
lean to Air Force with you but line feels a touch short for my liking , I wanted 7 & now it’s 4 most of my shops, may use them in teaser to plus 10.5, not sure they win straight up so betting them at only 4 seems like a reach on my end, going to be super cold for that game so I’m sure that helps you a bit, not sure what I’ll do on this one
I haven’t broke down Wake/Mizzou yet but getting to it tomorrow
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