BP 4-2
SM 4-5
BRIDGE PLAYS
PURDUE -16 
BUFFALO +18.5
CINCINNATI +7
UTAH / UCLA OVER 49.5
G.SO / FRESNO UNDER 54.5 
VA TECH +9.5
SMALLER
TULSA -5
BAMA / FSU UNDER 50.5
MARSHALL / UGA UNDER 55.5
HAWAII / ARIZONA UNDER 57
MIAMI / ND UNDER 50.5
KANSAS / FRESNO +14.5
GEORGIA ST +39.5
SAC STATE +11.5
N'WESTERN +7
Great start .. Nasty finish ..
- Miami/ND was a lead pipe lock late Q2 in-gm total hittin low 30's at some pt .. We got the rain, very slow inexplosive offense we got slips n mistakes and D's bowing up .. coulda survived the multiple FREAK TD's that coulda been FG's or no score .. but we couldn't survive a miracle late tie 24-24 with a winning FG killing us we got 12 drives that went absolutely nowhere like <10 yds .. ND's coverage D was great most of the gm .. beat in the trenches and no pass rush.. Roll the dice over n over and feels like we end w 13-9 wayyy more often than 27-24 .. sheeesh ..
- VA Tech felt like a WTF w Hokies bowing up nicely on D and then shooting themselves in the foot on offense over n over.. we called the Ace kicker and he came thru.. quick TD to start and a punt ret TD made a disappointing finish ..
- Fresno big shock came out in this one looking exactly like GA-Southern moving quick throwing the ball both teams scoring .. but we still found the scoring lull later on with Bulldogs burning that clock late, nearly stayed under before a late 7th TD made it 56 in a 42-14 win..
- Hawaii Under was wayyy better off w Alajado in there being a hero but he blew out his other ankle and they wouldn't let him play on crutches .. Total under was lead pipe lock w him in there - backup QB made it a sweat w faster explosive play when he wasn't setting AZ up w easy scores ..
- Sac State total shock with the D actually bowing up looking strong kept em close to the number.. Offense looked like they'd never played football before dropped the easiest TD catch to cover late .. even w atrocious offense we shoulda covered 11.5 but yeah wish I didn't touch that one..
- GA State looked like they coulda hung in, but maan did they get the Kiff treatment very late. Final score was a lock loss but there's actually more to like in that play than final score suggested..
- Marsh total got a welcomed Kirby brake job and Marsh even covered it lol ..
- Buffalo was close to being a good call but too much sweating and coaches calls at the end we needed them to be as good as expected to cover it so call it a tossup ..
- Parlays were dirt .. Fun bets mostly dirt .. PSU coulda hit that one for us but blew it .. Had books offering ++ cash out to settle Miami/ND Alt totals .. FML ..
I grade it 8-5-2 .. Got lucky w the tossups but really felt unlucky w the Miami Miracle over and Va Tech felt pretty solid at 9.5 until that got freaked .. Coulda stole the Fres Under.. Sac State many shots to turn a lock loss into a shock W but didn't get it ..
Lead pipe locks: Purdue, Tulsa, Miami Under
Right idea: Cincy, Utah Ov49.5, Va Tech, Hawaii Under, Bama Under
Tossup: Marsh Under, Buffalo
Bad call: Ga State, Fres Under
Total Dog Sh!t: NU+7, Fres+14, Sac State
GAME OF THE YEAR
SMALLER
MICH / OKLA -1.5
From the pre-ssn thread .. one of my fav plays with new Mich QB vs a strong D in an absolute 110% must win spot for OU .. think we moved to -2.5 or -3 before wk 1 kicked off .. I don't put much stock in how OU looked vs FCS or Mich looked vs New Mexico .. but I sense the results of one of those games pushed this line well beyond where I thought it would end up .. seein -6.5's show up now and the line moves we get really are the main priority when taking any stab at any game of the year plays during the summer .. otherwise why play it at all .. so we're very much in 'middling' territory already .. we see +7 and hard to imagine I'm not getting down on it for a few bucks at least... good luck!
BRIDGE PLAYS
KANSAS ST -16.5 -115
Not many of those left would get while they're around .. could look dumb here but KST's run D is very strong and coming off a horrific spot and catching Army at home this feels like the get it right game that some folks thought North Dakota shoulda been .. Army QB's hamstring cramp .. pull? .. end of the game could leave him out or ginger .. we and the expected backup got injured in fall camp leaving them with Hellums who is really the 3rd guy .. he took his first ever snaps last week against Tarleton in overtime and results were less than stellar .. K-State offense did its thing vs N.Dakota .. K-State's pass D is what did them in and not a big threat this week but I bet they're getting absolutely spanked in practice this week .. I'd imagine they practiced for the Army scheme quite a bit in the off season especially seeing they have have a fairly tough turnaround game vs Arizona on deck .. its technichnicallly not a conf standings game but KST goes on the road for Cat vs Cat action and this Army spot is one I'd expect them to be very well prepped for with added VERY HIGH motivation at this point for a big win at home ..
TULSA -3.5
Hit this -1 and -2.5 early on but here we are now at -3.5 .. its a little bit daring they have to hit the road to Las Crusas for what seems like bottom feeder vs bottom feeder action .. however we keyed on Tulsa in the pre-ssn as a team with a turnaround coach and lot of guys from the portal that have the talent but didn't find a spot on the teams theyve been on .. lotta P5 xfers .. and they showed up and beat the pants off their first challenge in Abeline C .. ABC's QB wasn't the one from last year but he looked like he at least knew what he was doing and Tulsa D wasn't bad, saw a goal line stand early and D left em w a goose egg .. How much better are they idk but they're going one direction and after lookin over how NMSU handled Bryant .. one of the worst teams FCS teams out there .. far and away one of the worst pass D's last year with lot of FCS QB's and WR's having career days vs them .. Logan Fife goes well under 50% passing .. they did have one WR w 99yds so clearly found a mismatch vs them ... but 19 pts total <300 yds on 12 drives most went absolutely nowhere .. One team going up and its possible NSMU is worse ..
FUN BETS
TULSA MOV -9.5 +172
TULSA MOV -13.5 +248
TULSA MOV -16.5 +320
TULSA MOV 31+ 13-1
Hit these at a few spots CZR, Heritage B365 for best odds avail now .. yeah why not .. possible over my ski's on tulsa showing up and bangin em on the road but seeing NSMU could sorta just barely handle bryant and this being one of a few good shots at a W for Tulsa it wouldn't surprise me if they can get things groovin early that they just totally run them out of their own stadium .. could be way wrong but we cashed the 31+ TEMPLE TORNADO MARGIN CALL last week and this feels like maybe a similar situation ..
SMALLER
IOWA +3
The 3 spot is usually an auto play for me in this series .. very often see mucked up scoring with numerous field goals and very oft this can come down to 1 or 2 points for the win .. we're getting 3 now after Iowa State did some cool things vs KState in Ireland and then beat the pants off their tough FCS competition .. we also see they have a QB that can throw and like their enormous gang of redwood wide receivers .. we're not sure on Gronowski and Iowa's pass game yet, its the one factor that kept me from taking them as a B10 long shot play .. but Gronk isin't necessarily a bad passer and plenty of exp at SDSU so I don't think we'll be fully one trick ponied in this one but explosives may be limited passing for sure ..
Iowa should have their run game working well with what looks like another surprise RB stepping up in Xavier Williams .. the expected starter Moulton is actually 4th RB in carries last week so its a sign the unit is stacked up .. tack on Gronks ability to run and we're probably in business as a team that can move the ball here .. Iowa has numerous heralded OL's, one of the best at Center to combat the Clones disruptive NT .. Iowa is also ready to rock on D with another strong unit .. maybe questions at LB after losing Higgy and the other top guy but hoping we can count on the development of their new group there .. Special teams may be our ace in the hole .. another field flipping punter hitting a couple 50 yarders last week .. they have a legit return guy in Wetjen and maybe found another last week Sam Phillips took one 46 yds .. FG kicker is an A+ ACE .. Iowa State's guys are good too it feels like typical CY Hawk and with the revenge of LY burning Hawkeye's asses all year I just don't think you can hand anyone a free 3 in this matchup ..
One other note is Avery Johnson did go 21/30 for 273 in that rainy ireland game and we know him to not be a very good passer .. Iowa probably doesn't have the same calib of WR's but looked like they were able to scheme some guys wide open and saw some big explosive receptions of 65, 37, 24 .. Iowa has brought in a few good additions to their offensive staff including Tim Lester at OC replacing the worst OC in CFB history .. and this yr added Warren Ruggiero who was Dave Clawson's long time OC.. Total under folks beware because what looked like potential heavy wind now might pass the game entirely and TOT went 43.5 to 41.5 now and possibly no weather help and stuck praying the 2 QB's don't find any traction in this one and I think both might ..
FUN BET
IOWA ML/O41 +351
Best total and no jerk around sgp odds with BM give us easily the best odds and numbers for this bet .. Total moved down a notch from 43.5 in anticipation of a decently stiff wind blowing into Iowa on Saturday and that makes sense with these two we get heavy wind and just sorta expect this to be a very verrrry low scoring affair .. but some reports now showing we won't get the wind .. and as noted above we have a QB in Iowa State that can throw to some bigger targets and generate some offense .. we have Iowa seemingly attempting to change some of their attitude on offense and its step by step but this is maybe a time to break out a big play in the pass game since we've already seen the Clones get torched for a couple HUGE plays that K-State was able to scheme open and that's the key here because Iowa prob doesn't have anyone that can break free of coverage on a route, need new coaches to spot a weakness and exploit it .. and nothing about early action suggests either team will be fully shut down running the ball either .. just feels like the total can hit but need Iowa to do its here .. other scores can also come directly via the defense .. we have 2 ace kickers locking up 3 balls and we know Iowa has at least one major killer punt returner maybe 2 .. so just seems like we have a few outs to find points outside of relying on longer offensive drives here .. good luck!
BRIDGE PLAY
NORTH CAROLINA -12.5 (MGM)
Might walk away feeling dumb here but we did see a real spark come out of the UNC offense with Max Johnson coming off the bench and leading a couple nice drives .. the tackling was so bad and numerous other miscues we can almost see that team show up on the road to play some nobody charlotte team and the 9'ers playing their best game smelling blood vs the in state big boy .. UNC has Richmond FCS on deck and has to exorcise some of the demons of last week they had michael jordan and all the UNC big wigs and half the state probably paying big bucks to see Bill B's team at home on labor day .. and now yer in this deflated spot .. I think the FCS game takes the pressure off and they can just think about the task at hand this week and yeah they should be able to beat the crap outta Charlotte in a meaningless to everyone else except for them game ..
Charlotte's offense was so atrocious just couldn't do a thing right vs App State and I think we can say TCU is a legit very strong team that showed up in every way .. and thing to like about Max Johnson is his journey to playing QB was so long, clearly Gio got hurt and MJ will get the start .. I feel confident that he's gunna play every game this year like its his last .. especially this first one and it probably does inspire the rest of the team to show up big and rally in a spot that would have likely been ignored as of 2 days ago .. this line woulda been north of 3 TD's before week 1 and probably way bigger after Charlotte got throttled and couldn't do anything on offense last week .. maybe a 12-14 point drop? .. that seems way too big ..
FUN BET
JMU ML/O56.5 .. 11-1 (B365)
Some books taking this SGP off and not sure exactly why since they love us doing those .. this is one of the rare occurrences where I think the decent size dog pulls an upset with the total going over .. def shop around because you will get a WIDE range of SGP offers .. BM usually doesn't jerk their odds around and we'd get 8.6 and that's actually wayyyy more than we're getting at FAN who tends to jerk odds higher for the dog and the over but at like 7-1 this is worse than a book that doesn't do that .. alas we find B365 who gives us a boomer boost with the big odds 11-1 .. if we did ML/Under we'd be getting 6.75-1 .. the JERKY books finally give us a reason to sign up it seems ..
Anyway I had this one pegged as an over pre-ssn .. we're obvi looking at Ville's offense as a killer unit and my pre-ssn read on the D says they really might not be very good in the secondary and also a bit iffy up front .. Not sure exactly what to expect from JMU but this is their SUPERBOWL in terms of the playoff resume and a big friday win almost certainly LEAPFROGS them over everyone into the driver seat for the G5 Playoff nod .. so I expect the best punch they can throw here .. and that should mean ripping it on the ground and possibly opening up some shots in the pass game .. I have questions on their D esp as we get closer to the line of scrimmage .. the secondary might be okay but vs Ville's offense this is still a very tall order we expect points in this one ..
WEATHER ALERT .. it does look like some rain is expected as of now .. heavy rain prob doesn't help us in getting this over but its on turf and possible some light rain helps the offense really a TBD .. SP+ would put this 63 pre-ssn total and we're at 56.5 with my lean toward an over already, questionable Ville D and JMU with a likely strong run game and expecting their hardest punch here .. GO DUKES
BRIDGE PLAY
TOLEDO -6.5 -120 (H ROCK)
First hard rock bet and it sounds like we're beating a line move... i was hoping W.KY's pass game we've seen would push this back down just a little but we waited and now one of the big touts .. Lot of the other places moving to 7 layin odds and 7.5's and I'd imagin its 8 or 8.5 soon .. check hard rock though odds still locked in where mine are .. like this play .. good luck!
BRIDGE PLAY
UCLA TM TOTAL OVER 27.5 -120 (CZR)
Seein mostly 28.5's out there but not everyone has this one .. I do see the total moving up a notch which is another way to possibly go w this one or maybe just hit UCLA under a FG ... Taking the TT because UNLV's offense actually has done a couple fun things in the early going and now settled on Colandria at QB they had a field day vs Sammy Hoo .. that doesn't mean they should be a this short of a dog in this one but I can't imagine UCLA wins this game without landing 4 TD's .. the offense was terrible vs Utah at home but Utes are typically a whole other animal when it comes to defense .. we saw UNLV's D get throttled by Idaho State and we're talking laaarge gaping holes in their lines that the Bengals ran right thru .. QB Cooke went 30/50 for 380 yards and their top RB went for 172 7.3/attempt .. Sammy was switching diff QB's and still managed 21 points by end of the game ... I mean if UCLA can't get 4 TD's here then just cancel the program on the spot, think its a 100% must show up spot for this offense and we're getting a deal and some worry with the Utes putting the clamps on them all the way .. not sure UNLV has many clamps so .. Go Nico and Good luck!
SMALLER
ALABAMA -36.5
One thing to call the coach out and demand he be fired .. but there's relentless teasing and abuse online directed from all angles at these guys .. seeing every little shot of a player lolli-gaggin on a play last week .. stories of partying the night before .. videos of practice sorta playing patty cake vs the sled .. and man o man its a night game in Tuscaloosa vs a total punching bag .. I can't pound it at this line there's a reason or two to think ULM could extend drives and they eat up all the clock they can with the ball in their hands .. but I do think we're gunna get a realllllly good week of practice and prep .. Bama has wisco at home on deck before a bye week and UGA .. It would be in their interest to have 2 weeks dedicated to beating their opponents up .. and players know there's an army of trolls just waiting for another viral clip of someone half jogging to a play again .. I think good chance all reactors are set to 1000% for a full 60 and we get maximum output from all starters, backups, special teamsters, benchwarmers and water boys in this one.. could look real dumb on this one if bama loses again (hahaaaaaa!!!!!) .. but whatever the spot says to play it so let's go .. 56-zip ..
@Bridge1
I agree
I’m hesitant what happens in the second half. There could be evaluating players and don’t care. If I am a betting Alabama I want a mundane game in this one to lower next weeks line again Wisky. I do believe Alabama covers one of these halves. The whole game won’t be sluggish.
@spottie2935
Yeah I was thinking ho-humm would be good but man o man you seein the trollin like guys draggin ass on a play .. all the national commentators dumbfounded basically calling them a bunch of softies .. taking odds on who the next coach should be .. I think there probably were some shenanigans the night before the game and a feeling like were just gunna show up at FSU and win easy we're bama no problem .. man o man if yer coach you gotta have spotters to see if anyone is dragging ass on a play and pull em out right away .. no doubt yer gunna see backups play but everyone playing 10000% the whole game is what we're bankin on here and if we're sweatin it late it feels like these guys are at least gunna be trying to make plays .. if they get way out ahead I can't see ULM bowing up late in this one either .. maybe they will but could be quittin time mid 3rd if the game is outta hand .. Bama really has to punish them and drive that into the Wisco game .. they'll have the week off to hit the books on UGA total ego corrector coming if they can gear up for a big half think they gear up for the whole game .. if they come out flat and feeling like losers then yeah .. eesh yeah.. that would not good ..
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