Yeah saw the book even wrote an article about that lol cmon guys!!! .. Get me Mich at 10 please, think we can assume OSU will punch them extra hard this year and there's gunna be a fall somewhere down the line even w a very very favorable schedule .. might end up playing under 9.5 if odds are generous ..
Fan duel got P5 conference and division odds .. like grabbing the bigger odds early on but Utah +500 for the Pac or +250 for the division think is worth a look .. USC/Oregon obvi chewing up the odds there think it gives the Utes some value .. Utes gotta go to Wash St, ASU, UCLA not easy but getting USC at home think is really huge just no way around it path to the division very likely plays out in SLC .. Also play Oregon on the road late in the year .. like the setup for Utes playing likely North div champ 2 weeks before the champ game but really hope they don't NEED to win in Eugene .. like the prospect of Utes coaches getting 2 stabs at the same team, don't think they'll miss the 2nd go round ..
Wash State 20-1 in the North has my attn no reason not to pinch 80-1 for the conference either .. I got some hopes for these guys, can't judge them too harshly on LY and got likely a new coach new QB new attitude situation could be much different team, got alot back on D and not worried about super low returning on O they needed a total makeover on that side .. it is a KILLER SCHEDULE w Utah/USC/ASU crossovers but Oregon, Utah, ASU, Wash are all at home .. and that home field is for real esp when they got a good season going .. Think there's a pretty wide confidence interval on Oregon this year and BYU, @WZZU, UCLA, WASH, UTAH aint easy .. wash/utah B2B then 6 day turnaround to the civil war in corvalis .. I suspect there's at least one loss in that stretch unless Oregon is just leaps and bounds stronger.. unlikely in my view ..
Wanted to hit Oregon State but 10-1 for the division is just not enough even if I think they could surprise you got the same killer crossovers w Utah/USC/ASU .. they manage a 3-way tie and boise / fresno non-cons .. ugh .. have to assume they're leaps and bounds better and tough to predict that .. 40-1 for the conference seems way too low ..
Yeah saw the book even wrote an article about that lol cmon guys!!! .. Get me Mich at 10 please, think we can assume OSU will punch them extra hard this year and there's gunna be a fall somewhere down the line even w a very very favorable schedule .. might end up playing under 9.5 if odds are generous ..
Fan duel got P5 conference and division odds .. like grabbing the bigger odds early on but Utah +500 for the Pac or +250 for the division think is worth a look .. USC/Oregon obvi chewing up the odds there think it gives the Utes some value .. Utes gotta go to Wash St, ASU, UCLA not easy but getting USC at home think is really huge just no way around it path to the division very likely plays out in SLC .. Also play Oregon on the road late in the year .. like the setup for Utes playing likely North div champ 2 weeks before the champ game but really hope they don't NEED to win in Eugene .. like the prospect of Utes coaches getting 2 stabs at the same team, don't think they'll miss the 2nd go round ..
Wash State 20-1 in the North has my attn no reason not to pinch 80-1 for the conference either .. I got some hopes for these guys, can't judge them too harshly on LY and got likely a new coach new QB new attitude situation could be much different team, got alot back on D and not worried about super low returning on O they needed a total makeover on that side .. it is a KILLER SCHEDULE w Utah/USC/ASU crossovers but Oregon, Utah, ASU, Wash are all at home .. and that home field is for real esp when they got a good season going .. Think there's a pretty wide confidence interval on Oregon this year and BYU, @WZZU, UCLA, WASH, UTAH aint easy .. wash/utah B2B then 6 day turnaround to the civil war in corvalis .. I suspect there's at least one loss in that stretch unless Oregon is just leaps and bounds stronger.. unlikely in my view ..
Wanted to hit Oregon State but 10-1 for the division is just not enough even if I think they could surprise you got the same killer crossovers w Utah/USC/ASU .. they manage a 3-way tie and boise / fresno non-cons .. ugh .. have to assume they're leaps and bounds better and tough to predict that .. 40-1 for the conference seems way too low ..
I was enticed to join you at +500 on Fan Duel for Utah. USC and Oregon being favorites is based on a lot of assumed improvement.
Wazzu is interesting and I'll take a look. Are Arizona State or UCLA interesting? Daniels leaving is rough but ASU was at times the best team in the league last year before fading. UCLA I think loses too much on offense and the D was average, but DTR year 12 and Chip continuing to implement is interesting at those odds.
I was enticed to join you at +500 on Fan Duel for Utah. USC and Oregon being favorites is based on a lot of assumed improvement.
Wazzu is interesting and I'll take a look. Are Arizona State or UCLA interesting? Daniels leaving is rough but ASU was at times the best team in the league last year before fading. UCLA I think loses too much on offense and the D was average, but DTR year 12 and Chip continuing to implement is interesting at those odds.
I don't have fan dual set up yet, only people that can't seem to confirm where I live .. very annoying, was just checking what they were offering .. New Wazz QB is very interesting to me FCS guy but idk he's got that ignition switch, I'd bank on him giving them a chance if other things can come together .
I'm an ASU homer .. won't be betting on them lol .. fun if they do it but I think its a real problem it sounds like they didn't rally their boosters to get NIL deals working and no surprise guys have left and others are looking around .. got a great DL in Lole injured pre-ssn LY and he's back but basically saying he's happy to stay but someone comes calling w an NIL deal he's leaving .. same happened with the RB who left for OSU .. QB left .. they also had a realllly small recruiting class LY and where some teams have 130 on the roster they have like 90 ... plus the covid recruiting issues some coaches fired and we saw false start penalties literally kill games for them last year .. really feels like the program was building itself up and just shot itself in the foot 3 or 4 times, doubt we've heard the end of guys looking for NIL deals either .. and Herm has a habbit of playing only QB1 all year barring an injury, won't be any experience there .. but casual observer see's QB leave thinks well they were on the rise a couple years maybe find a QB and still a punchers chance lol .. idk could be but nothing I'd bet on, program seems super combustible right now, kinda wondering what RSW number I'd need to say F it and fade them lol ..
Haven't looked at UCLA, another program that's just been drowning in mediocrity considering the size of their sports program .. nice leap into decency LY but need a big leap into consistency .. chip kelly era been pretty lackluster .. last year seemed like the big year with off the charts ret production .. luckily it sounds like they got some contributors from the portal .. so there's a chance but 3.5-1 for the division, 7-1 for the conference when DTR has been just a dud for 5 years and he's prob the guy again? .. no thanks ..
Utes offense gunna be total killers and I'm just gunna trust this isin't the one year Whittingham forgets to put a D together .. no way they haven't been thinking they could be the playoff crashers this year .. i doubt anyone on UCLA or ASU are thinking about anything lofty other than an NIL deal ..
Pitt news .. Jordan Addison in the portal lol .. man this tampering stuff is gunna get wild .. think there'll be a few more big splashes coming ..
I don't have fan dual set up yet, only people that can't seem to confirm where I live .. very annoying, was just checking what they were offering .. New Wazz QB is very interesting to me FCS guy but idk he's got that ignition switch, I'd bank on him giving them a chance if other things can come together .
I'm an ASU homer .. won't be betting on them lol .. fun if they do it but I think its a real problem it sounds like they didn't rally their boosters to get NIL deals working and no surprise guys have left and others are looking around .. got a great DL in Lole injured pre-ssn LY and he's back but basically saying he's happy to stay but someone comes calling w an NIL deal he's leaving .. same happened with the RB who left for OSU .. QB left .. they also had a realllly small recruiting class LY and where some teams have 130 on the roster they have like 90 ... plus the covid recruiting issues some coaches fired and we saw false start penalties literally kill games for them last year .. really feels like the program was building itself up and just shot itself in the foot 3 or 4 times, doubt we've heard the end of guys looking for NIL deals either .. and Herm has a habbit of playing only QB1 all year barring an injury, won't be any experience there .. but casual observer see's QB leave thinks well they were on the rise a couple years maybe find a QB and still a punchers chance lol .. idk could be but nothing I'd bet on, program seems super combustible right now, kinda wondering what RSW number I'd need to say F it and fade them lol ..
Haven't looked at UCLA, another program that's just been drowning in mediocrity considering the size of their sports program .. nice leap into decency LY but need a big leap into consistency .. chip kelly era been pretty lackluster .. last year seemed like the big year with off the charts ret production .. luckily it sounds like they got some contributors from the portal .. so there's a chance but 3.5-1 for the division, 7-1 for the conference when DTR has been just a dud for 5 years and he's prob the guy again? .. no thanks ..
Utes offense gunna be total killers and I'm just gunna trust this isin't the one year Whittingham forgets to put a D together .. no way they haven't been thinking they could be the playoff crashers this year .. i doubt anyone on UCLA or ASU are thinking about anything lofty other than an NIL deal ..
Pitt news .. Jordan Addison in the portal lol .. man this tampering stuff is gunna get wild .. think there'll be a few more big splashes coming ..
Mich will likely cash that over 9.5 by the trip to Cbus. Super easy schedule & the offense is significantly better than every team up until that point. Get Penn St at home which is usually big in that series. Trip to Iowa can be scary but it’s somewhat early in the year. No reason they’re not 10-1 or 11-0 going to Columbus with how good the O is gonna be. Yes the DC changed but it’s the same scheme & clink is back too. IMO the loss of Gattis is addition by subtraction. Never liked the guy. There’s no weak link on the offense… on paper.
Mich will likely cash that over 9.5 by the trip to Cbus. Super easy schedule & the offense is significantly better than every team up until that point. Get Penn St at home which is usually big in that series. Trip to Iowa can be scary but it’s somewhat early in the year. No reason they’re not 10-1 or 11-0 going to Columbus with how good the O is gonna be. Yes the DC changed but it’s the same scheme & clink is back too. IMO the loss of Gattis is addition by subtraction. Never liked the guy. There’s no weak link on the offense… on paper.
Also at first look, I really like the Wisconsin over 8.5 on PointsBet. Can see them being 11–1 with a lone loss at OSU. They, like UM, get eased into the season and likely a 5-1 start heading to EL. That’s a game I envision being a FG spread and a blowout W for the badgers.
They also have Wazzou early, not sure the expectations for that team but like Wisc at home.
Mich St under 7.5 is +105 on PointsBet. Might opt for the plus money as I still think bowl eligibility might be a struggle.
Also at first look, I really like the Wisconsin over 8.5 on PointsBet. Can see them being 11–1 with a lone loss at OSU. They, like UM, get eased into the season and likely a 5-1 start heading to EL. That’s a game I envision being a FG spread and a blowout W for the badgers.
They also have Wazzou early, not sure the expectations for that team but like Wisc at home.
Mich St under 7.5 is +105 on PointsBet. Might opt for the plus money as I still think bowl eligibility might be a struggle.
Yeah Hock I might hit that 7.5 with you on MSU but think its worth it to see if anyone else drops an 8 out there like WynnBet did .. I'd def rather lay -110 on 8 than take +105 on 7.5 .. feels like if MSU gets lucky again maybe they tie us at 8 but not beat us .. likely path is beating everyone but OSU, Wisco, @Mich, @PSU.. There's definitely garbage on the schedule but @Wash, Minny, @MD no sure things there ... @ILL / INDY come late in the season maybe better teams than projected by then ..
Yeah Hock I might hit that 7.5 with you on MSU but think its worth it to see if anyone else drops an 8 out there like WynnBet did .. I'd def rather lay -110 on 8 than take +105 on 7.5 .. feels like if MSU gets lucky again maybe they tie us at 8 but not beat us .. likely path is beating everyone but OSU, Wisco, @Mich, @PSU.. There's definitely garbage on the schedule but @Wash, Minny, @MD no sure things there ... @ILL / INDY come late in the season maybe better teams than projected by then ..
Yeah also souring on Wisco more I read into them .. was agreeing w you when looking at the schedule and w Allen the man up there feels pretty good .. but Mertz is looking like a career dud so far and only realistic QB on their roster who could be the starter, sounds like others are just too far back .. the kicker is after years of underwhelming on O OC Rudolph moves on and they hire Bobby Engram to be QB's coach and OC and supposedly playcaller and help them reinvent some of the offensive scheme is what it sounds like .. he's done none of those things in his career as NFL TE/WR coach .. and maybe things work out year 1 but alot of ways this move goes sideways and maybe what it means is Chryst is still the OC which didn't work out well when he was doing that with Rudolph around .. think its a pretty fresh receiving corps too can't really remember the last good WR they had but best LY Davis and Kendrik are gone and TE went pro, unsure on the line but had a good OL get drafted too ...
On D it seems almost a given they will be elite again / top 5ish, but instead of 11+ returning studs 8 of the top 12 tacklers are gone .. alot of them playing 3 years some started 4 straight years huge ret production all that time .. think we trust Lionhard to put a solid D together but it is not easy to stay elite the way they recruit or how OK.State does, etc.. very easy to slip down to 'pretty good' / top 15ish where Mich/Penn St/Nebraska kinda were and then the total air of invincibility they've had can wear off quick.. like I was saying above seems like the O may not have too many gears this year to make up the difference ..
The whole situation feels like a reboot year with studs exiting and new coordinator in to change things around .. Def feels like the books are baiting us with that 8.5, think the move if anything on the RSW's is see if it gets bet up to 9 and take it under .. The real hope is they beat up on the soft schedule early and look good enough getting to that 5-1 mark before we start fading them ... Think wazzoo or roadie to ILL have some potential to screw that plan up for us tho either by beating them or at least exposing them ..
Yeah also souring on Wisco more I read into them .. was agreeing w you when looking at the schedule and w Allen the man up there feels pretty good .. but Mertz is looking like a career dud so far and only realistic QB on their roster who could be the starter, sounds like others are just too far back .. the kicker is after years of underwhelming on O OC Rudolph moves on and they hire Bobby Engram to be QB's coach and OC and supposedly playcaller and help them reinvent some of the offensive scheme is what it sounds like .. he's done none of those things in his career as NFL TE/WR coach .. and maybe things work out year 1 but alot of ways this move goes sideways and maybe what it means is Chryst is still the OC which didn't work out well when he was doing that with Rudolph around .. think its a pretty fresh receiving corps too can't really remember the last good WR they had but best LY Davis and Kendrik are gone and TE went pro, unsure on the line but had a good OL get drafted too ...
On D it seems almost a given they will be elite again / top 5ish, but instead of 11+ returning studs 8 of the top 12 tacklers are gone .. alot of them playing 3 years some started 4 straight years huge ret production all that time .. think we trust Lionhard to put a solid D together but it is not easy to stay elite the way they recruit or how OK.State does, etc.. very easy to slip down to 'pretty good' / top 15ish where Mich/Penn St/Nebraska kinda were and then the total air of invincibility they've had can wear off quick.. like I was saying above seems like the O may not have too many gears this year to make up the difference ..
The whole situation feels like a reboot year with studs exiting and new coordinator in to change things around .. Def feels like the books are baiting us with that 8.5, think the move if anything on the RSW's is see if it gets bet up to 9 and take it under .. The real hope is they beat up on the soft schedule early and look good enough getting to that 5-1 mark before we start fading them ... Think wazzoo or roadie to ILL have some potential to screw that plan up for us tho either by beating them or at least exposing them ..
Yeah I don’t think Mertz will be too big of a deal… I think Wiscos passing attack experiment is over and Mertz will be a game manager who makes the occasional throw… I think Wisconsin realizes what they really are and reverts back to the traditional heavy run with good defense team they always were.. that formula alone with Allen should be enough to take that side unless Nebraska comes out of nowhere… and one of these years.. who knows when it will be but Frost has at least one of those years and I think it will be an explosion… I do have to say … it doesn’t look like it but Frost is progressing… slowly…. but I still see the progress… he HAD to get Martinez out of there… but that says something about Frost.. he doesn’t give up on his QBs…
Yeah I don’t think Mertz will be too big of a deal… I think Wiscos passing attack experiment is over and Mertz will be a game manager who makes the occasional throw… I think Wisconsin realizes what they really are and reverts back to the traditional heavy run with good defense team they always were.. that formula alone with Allen should be enough to take that side unless Nebraska comes out of nowhere… and one of these years.. who knows when it will be but Frost has at least one of those years and I think it will be an explosion… I do have to say … it doesn’t look like it but Frost is progressing… slowly…. but I still see the progress… he HAD to get Martinez out of there… but that says something about Frost.. he doesn’t give up on his QBs…
Dont squeeze the Charmin, Mr. Whipple has come to town. (right over the younger than 50 folks head, I know)
Looks like Nebraska could be the up and coming team in the West Conference. Huskers added 16 transfers and new OC Mark Whipple. Schedule looks winnable, toughest road game at Michigan, no Ohio State. Both Wisc. and Iowa have that stuck in a rut look. Books recognize this, Huskers only at +300 to win the West at FD. Looking hard at this play, wanted a bigger number.
Early leans based on history; Penn St/Purdue under 54.5 ----in Big10 play last year both of these teams games did not go over 54 points excluding playing Ohio St and Michigan St., 14-0 below 54. Do not see any big offensive improvements for either side. Penn St offensive line a big ???, would think Franklin should be grabbing some transfer OL. Neither team with a legit run game they could sling it all over the field and go over, historical tendency says Under.
Maryland -21 / Buffalo. Maybe a small play here, Terps 7-1 ATS when a fav of -10 or more since 2018. They like to run it up when they can. Have to further analyze the Bulls, how bad are they?
Dont squeeze the Charmin, Mr. Whipple has come to town. (right over the younger than 50 folks head, I know)
Looks like Nebraska could be the up and coming team in the West Conference. Huskers added 16 transfers and new OC Mark Whipple. Schedule looks winnable, toughest road game at Michigan, no Ohio State. Both Wisc. and Iowa have that stuck in a rut look. Books recognize this, Huskers only at +300 to win the West at FD. Looking hard at this play, wanted a bigger number.
Early leans based on history; Penn St/Purdue under 54.5 ----in Big10 play last year both of these teams games did not go over 54 points excluding playing Ohio St and Michigan St., 14-0 below 54. Do not see any big offensive improvements for either side. Penn St offensive line a big ???, would think Franklin should be grabbing some transfer OL. Neither team with a legit run game they could sling it all over the field and go over, historical tendency says Under.
Maryland -21 / Buffalo. Maybe a small play here, Terps 7-1 ATS when a fav of -10 or more since 2018. They like to run it up when they can. Have to further analyze the Bulls, how bad are they?
Illinois… I like them at home vs Wyoming on their opener… ML at least…
But Devito???
I think he was okay before the injury but I guess if they are just looking for a game manager and stick to solid football/good D it can work… that’s usually Bretts formula..just doesn’t seem like the monster transfer they are making it out to be…
Illinois… I like them at home vs Wyoming on their opener… ML at least…
But Devito???
I think he was okay before the injury but I guess if they are just looking for a game manager and stick to solid football/good D it can work… that’s usually Bretts formula..just doesn’t seem like the monster transfer they are making it out to be…
DeVito fills a hole, about the same numbers, experience as Brandon Peter's, nothing more.
Illinois loses a lot of production as does Wyoming. Illinois getting Lunney Jr as OC a step up from Tony Petersen, just seems like a better fit for a Bielema team.
I see Illini getting much more help from transfers than Cowboys.
They should handle Wyoming based on talent. Connelly has Wyoming dropping to 119th in returning offensive production! Will watch this one.
DeVito fills a hole, about the same numbers, experience as Brandon Peter's, nothing more.
Illinois loses a lot of production as does Wyoming. Illinois getting Lunney Jr as OC a step up from Tony Petersen, just seems like a better fit for a Bielema team.
I see Illini getting much more help from transfers than Cowboys.
They should handle Wyoming based on talent. Connelly has Wyoming dropping to 119th in returning offensive production! Will watch this one.
Texas is probably another year away. But you never know with the Big 12. They'll have 3 teams with new coaches, including their biggest rival Oklahoma. And UT only has to leave the state of Texas twice this year against the Kansas teams. Their schedule is favorable. So nothing would shock me. But my feeling is they will be better next year. Which is good timing when entering the SEC.
Texas is probably another year away. But you never know with the Big 12. They'll have 3 teams with new coaches, including their biggest rival Oklahoma. And UT only has to leave the state of Texas twice this year against the Kansas teams. Their schedule is favorable. So nothing would shock me. But my feeling is they will be better next year. Which is good timing when entering the SEC.
I think Texas can win the conference… I expect Ewers to have a similar season to Stroud last year… couple early non cons to shake off the rust… A thumping at the hands of Bama… but at least they will be battle tested after that game just as Ohio St got caught by Oregon… and I know the defense will be questionable but once Ewers/Robinson get going by about game-4-ish.. who is going to out-score them reguardless of a bad defense? Sark is in the second year where Venenables is in his first… I think the only team conference wise that could beat Texas is a sneaky Kansas St if it’s at Kansas St.. Martinez is gonna show up on and steal a win in one of those high profile games to prove something..but as long as they beat OU they would have to have two conference losses… don’t see it until maybe an OU rematch in the title game…
I think Texas can win the conference… I expect Ewers to have a similar season to Stroud last year… couple early non cons to shake off the rust… A thumping at the hands of Bama… but at least they will be battle tested after that game just as Ohio St got caught by Oregon… and I know the defense will be questionable but once Ewers/Robinson get going by about game-4-ish.. who is going to out-score them reguardless of a bad defense? Sark is in the second year where Venenables is in his first… I think the only team conference wise that could beat Texas is a sneaky Kansas St if it’s at Kansas St.. Martinez is gonna show up on and steal a win in one of those high profile games to prove something..but as long as they beat OU they would have to have two conference losses… don’t see it until maybe an OU rematch in the title game…
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