2025 Baylor Bears

Any thoughts on the 2025 edition? 

I saw a good 2024 team that was rolling so good they ended up the bowl game against the mighty scoring LSU team and Baylor was even a small favorite.  Lost the game but to me that line made a statement.  

Now I’m not a strong X’s and O’s Fundamentalist type of handicapper but I looked on a few site that their off- season exits, a lot of the transfer outs went to lesser schools.  The incoming transfers, a lot of them were from some pretty good schools.  

point being, I think they are live for a small upset in week 1 vs Auburn. 

Sawyer Robertson Was impressive last season with a comp % of 63 and a td to int ratio of 26-7 

last season they had only one bad loss to Utah,  they lost to CU on that Hail Mary and OT fumble but as far as 59:50 minutes of that game had that game won.  The other 3 losses LSU in the Bowl,  and BYU and Iowa State.  BYU was a close one and Iowa State was a blowout.   Iowas state I don’t consider a bad loss in my opinion but looking back at their season Utah they should have had that W.  

Looks to be a great week 1 game. 

Glancing at Auburns 2024 they had 5 wins.  3 against lesser conference opponents : Alabama A&M, New Mexico and Louisiana Monroe.  In conference wins vs. Kentucky and Texas A&M.

I have not done any personal searching on Auburn yet, but even so this is the type of info that I lack the energy to dig deep into. 

@spottie2935

Spottie I nabbed some Auburn taking +odds early and don't hate playing the other side with Baylor, we're at 2.5 now think maybe we can wait for +3 .. Took them B12 9-1 also the other day with most shops at 6-1 now, their odds dropped a bit over the recent weeks and I think they'll all settle in that 6-1 or maybe lower .. IAuburn's outlook is certainly mysterious but big year for them, clearly trying to make some kinda move in the conf this year w some big acquisitions but it does feel a little forced as its like do or die for Freeze and it would appear the NIL bankers aren't trying to julius caesar him like the last guy, at least not in the pre-ssn .. Think the consensus is we expect to see a big improvement but nobody really lining up to back jaxon arnold so not a surprise their conf odds havent moved much .. the hurdles for them are more massive so there's a reason the odds are still up there but might be a bit high IMO ..

I'm not a baylor expert I'm relying on Phil's preview think a bold move putting them tied for 1st but you see his unit chart lotta 1's n 2's so its not just the winnable schedule in the conf the roster seems to back up that prediction .. I talk more about that in my pick notes but for week 1 hard to say for sure I'd def lean baylor taking 2.5 and probably on it if we see +3 .. good luck!

Thx Bridge.  I’m not sure in season outlook but last year was good for Baylor even with an unlucky game vs CU

I’ve got all my Marc Lawrence data  set and that includes a lot more favorite data as well.  The favorites, mostly the top 10 teams don’t vary much so the data is very much consistent and congruent to success. It’s more about previous successes and failures and line fluctuations from that.  

Week 1 best bet

Tx A&M -21

week=1 and F and line<-7 and line>-17 and season>2011 and rank=None and o:division=FBS and n:line>3

against Virginia

Against Kentucky

season>2010 and F and week<6 and no:division=FCS and line>-14 and week=1

CAL

CIN

LLAF

NORW

OKST

PUR

MICH