🚩 Occam's Razor: 👉 Tracking a new angle that might be worth a look 👍💲

This is interesting!

When capping COLLEGES, I update my CFB ratings system after the games - checking the box scores of each to account (in my assessment) for scores that are or are not reflective of the actual performances MINUS THE LUCKY BREAKS! I then assign a new rating to each team for the coming week. Then I look at the early betting lines to compare and "size up" a perceived edge, just from first glance. I circle all those for further investigation.

Then, next day, I begin doing my "forensics" on every game I circled on first impulse. I keep some for a bet and dismiss the rest

Now here's the kicker.....I've just reviewed my weekly notes and tallied all the circled games which I liked at first but ultimately DID NOT BET. And trying to assess this objectively, here's what I believe would have occurred with those discarded circled games *IF* I had bet them:
       WEEK 1:    5 - 5
       WEEK 2:  18 - 4
       WEEK 3:    4 - 4
       WEEK 4:  14 - 5
       Sept 28:    1 - 1  so far in week 5

                = 42 - 19

HOLY SHT!   Those circled games which I discarded, actually would have profited way better than the circled games which I actually bet (32 - 22)

"Occam's Razor"....basically, "all things being equal, the simplest explanation tends to be the correct one"
Meaning, in my case, my circled bets on day one (with no research!) should be my bets as they are most likely to be correct!

So, I'm starting an experiment to track ALL my initially circled games and I will bet them all and post them as my picks.
I will still continue to do my more in-depth look into each one to see if any rise to the level of *BEST BETS.

There's going to be a lot of bets. But I'm retired and comfortable so this is fun no matter how it works out.
Observe or bet at your own risk, as I DO NOT suggest anyone tail my picks. Anything could happen and these COULD go on a massive losing streak now!  I think that unlikely, but ya never know (Mind you my *BEST BETS in any sport do win at a higher rate and are typically more profitable)

Fubah's "Occam's Razor" angle experiment bets will be posted over in my main thread each week....not here.

Will post this week's angle bets Friday well before the games in my main thread... Thereafter, expect to see them listed in my main thread either Sundays or Mondays.

BOL with your bets this week, gentlemen!

@fubah2

Looks interesting, but a few points,

According to what you wrote these "first look" circled games every week will be from opening lines. Not everyone can get opening lines.

Are those circled games on opening lines point spreads or moneyline plays? 

And how's this gonna work when you move on to handicapping those games in more detail but the lines are moving during the week and you decide a bunch of those circled games are duds that you would usually skip 

Let’s gooooo 

@Zeus4par

Good points.  Normally when I list the games on my sheets for review the first time it is NOT late Saturday night when the VEGAS opening lines first appear.  I do it usually late Sunday  after the NFL games or early Monday, when those first opening VEGAS lines have already been picked over and moved then posted at the various online books. So those lines are gettable by anyone.

As for the lines, well the lines listed on MY sheets are the consensus ATS lines posted by several books as listed on Covers odds

I circle games initially while looking at the SPREADS and comparing them to the ratings I have for each opponent. This part is subject, from experience. For example if I see a line like -3.5 on a team I like I know full well at that moment that I am circling THAT game and line knowing that I will likely bet it at a smaller number (alt-line) or moneyline.  So basically it's the TEAM I am circling, not the line per se.   The ATS line merely indicates to me whether that TEAM might be over valued or under valued in that spot.   When I post my "Occam's Razor" experimental-tracking bets (either late Sundays or on Mondays) over in my main thread every week, those "first glance teams I like"  will be bet at my books at the odds I prefer - which may or may not be the consensus ATS line (ie, I may choose the moneyline or an alt-line, though still available to anyone)  Those bets are without any research whatsoever!  Just based on my updated ratings and my experience at judging for valuation.

After I bet them all and post them in my main thread, I then get down to in-depth handicapping (research) and of course many of those "first glance CIRCLED teams" will turn out to be teams I wish I had not bet! LOL  But that's the point!  Until now, of all the circled games, I bet on 54 of them and went 32 - 22. But of the 61 teams that I circled but DISGARDED after in depth review - it turns out THOSE would have gone 42 -19!  The disgarded ones did better!! LOL

Hence, a little experiment here, tracking what is essentially my initial impulses after I see the lines Sunday night and compared to my newly updated ratings - without doing any research! "Occam's Razor" 

Since I will be betting them all, unless it turns to a colossal failure I'll keep betting/posting/tracking them, and they will be noted as "Occam's Razor" bets.  But to your point, if my subsequent in-depth research suggests any are duds I wish I had not bet, then I may post a SIDE BET buying it back (other team) as well as any *BEST BETS.  These bets will be noted separately from the  "Occam's Razor" bets

OP very interesting, thank you :)

Are you picking bets just off misleading scores the week before? It makes huge sense to me.... Seems like a lot of games though. Corrolary that some think everything is,properly discounted by market)

Didn't see if you answered this but all ATS bets??

I think I should independently come up with game spreads and see how that works.. I.e. Don't look at spread until betting time. I think it's useful exercise... Sorry for bolded

In a way....sort of.....because my Saturday night judgement as to "misleading final scores" is a BIG PART of how I subsequently rate the teams.  Then I use my rating system to evaluate if the Sunday/Monday betting lines are spot on or OFF.....

All the "Occam's Razor" bets do arise from first glance at the original consensus ATS spreads posted on Covers odds (Sunday/Monday) BUT that is just to give me a feel for if a team is over valued or undervalued.  Then immediately, still without doing any research, I choose how I would bet THAT TEAM - and will be a mix of spreads, or alt-line spreads, or moneylines. Generally I play small numbers on favs below 3 ATS. Above that I typically switch it to moneyline if within reason or an alt-line.....for DOGS I typically take the points.

There's an idea!   You should explore that...

Fubah's Occam's Razor tracking, WEEK 5:

W  TULSA -3 -118
W  BYU Cougars -136    *BEST BET
W  JM Dukes -160         *BEST BET
W  Minnesota -440        *BEST BET
W  Colordao +24 -150   *BEST BET
W  Hawkeys -450          *BEST BET

W  MEMPHIS -145
x  Midshipmen -3
x  UTEPMiners Pick       x*BEST BET
x  AKRON -2.5
W  SOONERS -11.5 -285 alt-line
W  Kentucky -1
W  BC Eagles -165
W  W.Michigan -1            *BEST BET
W  Longhorns -7 -320 alt-line
W  Ole Miss +3.5 -145 alt-line
W  Purdue Pick
x  GS Panthers -1            x*BEST BET
x  Washington -12.5 -230 alt-line

= 14 - 5

Occam's Razor WEEK 6 to be posted in my main thread soon