No offense to anyone that plays theories or line movements, but I really never understand how people bet their own money on what other people are either doing or not doing.
I beleive people who "say this" don't always bet the other side they just want to be different......but doesn't matter to me. I will stick to my main reason overall others is this is a similar team that they prepared for, played, now prepared for again and playing again (E.Carolina and Houston).
No offense to anyone that plays theories or line movements, but I really never understand how people bet their own money on what other people are either doing or not doing.
I beleive people who "say this" don't always bet the other side they just want to be different......but doesn't matter to me. I will stick to my main reason overall others is this is a similar team that they prepared for, played, now prepared for again and playing again (E.Carolina and Houston).
Good reading- GL- any thought for the under over?
i'm leaning on Over 62.5
see prev meeting @ Houston rocked CFU --- uhm.. plus the stats for both QBs are very tight closed- except intercepts lol -
well- GL anyway
Good reading- GL- any thought for the under over?
i'm leaning on Over 62.5
see prev meeting @ Houston rocked CFU --- uhm.. plus the stats for both QBs are very tight closed- except intercepts lol -
well- GL anyway
Come on man you are much smarter than this... I have been a big man of your work and I know you don't believe this. Just say what it is it is reverse line movement, meaning that despite 60% of the public being on UCF the line keeps moving for more UCF money. RLM doesn't necessarily mean anything but it does mean that bigger bets is coming in on HOU than UCF. BOL on your play I really liked UCF until I saw this which mean no play for me. Who knows maybe I will jump on board at halftime.
If my facts that I post turn you away than good for you. I could care less if I'm on the side that everyone is on or not on, never have and never will. I NEVER EVER look at this sort of crap......hell people will argue on COVERS all the time about who is public, squares, blah blah blah. Conspiracy theories hold no water with me and I would NEVER change my bet based on someones post, that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
Go KNIGHTS!!!
Come on man you are much smarter than this... I have been a big man of your work and I know you don't believe this. Just say what it is it is reverse line movement, meaning that despite 60% of the public being on UCF the line keeps moving for more UCF money. RLM doesn't necessarily mean anything but it does mean that bigger bets is coming in on HOU than UCF. BOL on your play I really liked UCF until I saw this which mean no play for me. Who knows maybe I will jump on board at halftime.
If my facts that I post turn you away than good for you. I could care less if I'm on the side that everyone is on or not on, never have and never will. I NEVER EVER look at this sort of crap......hell people will argue on COVERS all the time about who is public, squares, blah blah blah. Conspiracy theories hold no water with me and I would NEVER change my bet based on someones post, that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
Go KNIGHTS!!!
Good reading- GL- any thought for the under over?
i'm leaning on Over 62.5
see prev meeting @ Houston rocked CFU --- uhm.. plus the stats for both QBs are very tight closed- except intercepts lol -
well- GL anyway
Sorry I never do over and unders......I'm just not very good at that when I tried years ago and just not fun for me. Good luck with whatever you do.
Good reading- GL- any thought for the under over?
i'm leaning on Over 62.5
see prev meeting @ Houston rocked CFU --- uhm.. plus the stats for both QBs are very tight closed- except intercepts lol -
well- GL anyway
Sorry I never do over and unders......I'm just not very good at that when I tried years ago and just not fun for me. Good luck with whatever you do.
i tottally agree. the line looks real fishy. i learned my lesson picking the steelers over saints last week when it -1. im def goin with houston tonight even tho i wanna bet on ucf. when a lines looks to good to be true it mostly likely is
i tottally agree. the line looks real fishy. i learned my lesson picking the steelers over saints last week when it -1. im def goin with houston tonight even tho i wanna bet on ucf. when a lines looks to good to be true it mostly likely is
Good reading- GL- any thought for the under over?
i'm leaning on Over 62.5
see prev meeting @ Houston rocked CFU --- uhm.. plus the stats for both QBs are very tight closed- except intercepts lol -
well- GL anyway
Previous meeting in Houston that you are refering to is 4 years ago.......both quarterbacks were in the 8th grade
Good reading- GL- any thought for the under over?
i'm leaning on Over 62.5
see prev meeting @ Houston rocked CFU --- uhm.. plus the stats for both QBs are very tight closed- except intercepts lol -
well- GL anyway
Previous meeting in Houston that you are refering to is 4 years ago.......both quarterbacks were in the 8th grade
Great writeup. Knowing that they are ATS monster, great offense and good D I got to ask why the hell they only favored by -1? They have so much going for them yet oddsmakers making it almost a pickem. Anything under 3 should be consider a pickem anyways.
I dont have enough balls to pick Houston but seems like a great spot for them to get a win.
Great writeup. Knowing that they are ATS monster, great offense and good D I got to ask why the hell they only favored by -1? They have so much going for them yet oddsmakers making it almost a pickem. Anything under 3 should be consider a pickem anyways.
I dont have enough balls to pick Houston but seems like a great spot for them to get a win.
Central Florida is 7-1 ATS for the year and an eye popping 10-1ATS last 11 road games.
This is the second stratight week that CF will be facing an uptempo and no huddle offense and they had some imporvement to make this week on Defense as they allowed way too much on defense to East Carolina who was 5-2 at the time and allowed EC a 71% 3rd down efficency last week. I actually like this ALOT as having a very similar offense to defend 2 weeeks in a row and having to focus on mistakes the previous week will be a HUGE benefit for the UCF Defense in my opinion.
Deefense is UCF's differentiator tonight.#9 in total yards, #16 pass,#13 in rush, #11 in points allowed. And again playing almost the same offense two weeks in a row leads common sense to believe that is a benefit tonight for UCF.
UCF offensively is the type of team that Houston struggles with because of the style more than anything else. UCF will keep Houstons offense off the field as long as they possilbly can with their size advantage, power football and working the clock.
Freshman Godfrey is a mobil QB that will need to play smart as he has done the last 2 weeks with 3TD passes and 1INT with 1 rushing TD completing 67% and 72%. At this point in the season it's time to forget about being a Freshman and his improvement week to week is showing that. 4Td, 4INT, and 5 rushing TD's for the season.
Running Back Ronnie Weaver for UCF has had a great year behind that large offensive line with a 4.9 per carry and 10TD's. Look for a big game against the pourus Houston Defense.
Houston Defense is going to have it's hands full and are much smaller up front. Ranked #98 against the rush is a disaster against this sort of team, #80 in points allowed, #79 in Total yards and #38 in passing defense (misleading as everyone runs against Houston).
No doubt Houston has a high octane offensive team with #8 in scoring, #13 in passing and #15 in total yards. However, as mentioned above UCF is coming off of victory over E Carolina that has a very similar style and I firmly beleive that gives a huge advantage to UCF.
RB Beall has impressive season numbers with 12 Td's, However 8 came in the first 4 games and he is banged up with a knee injury last week but is probable this week. He is only averaging 55 yards per game last 4 with 1Td per game.
Houston freshman QB (should have been 2nd or 3rd string but starts due to injuries). He has 11 TD's and 3 pics for the season, however looking a little deeper shows that 5 came against the #119 ranked Defense last week in Memphis and 3 aginast the #116 ranked passing defense in Rice......not quite the CFU caliber.
Special Teams: Houston has great kick returners and punt returners. UCF is just as explosive in this area. This is really a push.
Kicking definately goes to Houston as UCF is ranked #118 in Fg% and I'll give the punting to Houston as well. Frankly I don't see this has being of much importance as I don't see the game coming down to FG's.
My largest play for the week
Central Florida Knights -1
Central Florida is 7-1 ATS for the year and an eye popping 10-1ATS last 11 road games.
This is the second stratight week that CF will be facing an uptempo and no huddle offense and they had some imporvement to make this week on Defense as they allowed way too much on defense to East Carolina who was 5-2 at the time and allowed EC a 71% 3rd down efficency last week. I actually like this ALOT as having a very similar offense to defend 2 weeeks in a row and having to focus on mistakes the previous week will be a HUGE benefit for the UCF Defense in my opinion.
Deefense is UCF's differentiator tonight.#9 in total yards, #16 pass,#13 in rush, #11 in points allowed. And again playing almost the same offense two weeks in a row leads common sense to believe that is a benefit tonight for UCF.
UCF offensively is the type of team that Houston struggles with because of the style more than anything else. UCF will keep Houstons offense off the field as long as they possilbly can with their size advantage, power football and working the clock.
Freshman Godfrey is a mobil QB that will need to play smart as he has done the last 2 weeks with 3TD passes and 1INT with 1 rushing TD completing 67% and 72%. At this point in the season it's time to forget about being a Freshman and his improvement week to week is showing that. 4Td, 4INT, and 5 rushing TD's for the season.
Running Back Ronnie Weaver for UCF has had a great year behind that large offensive line with a 4.9 per carry and 10TD's. Look for a big game against the pourus Houston Defense.
Houston Defense is going to have it's hands full and are much smaller up front. Ranked #98 against the rush is a disaster against this sort of team, #80 in points allowed, #79 in Total yards and #38 in passing defense (misleading as everyone runs against Houston).
No doubt Houston has a high octane offensive team with #8 in scoring, #13 in passing and #15 in total yards. However, as mentioned above UCF is coming off of victory over E Carolina that has a very similar style and I firmly beleive that gives a huge advantage to UCF.
RB Beall has impressive season numbers with 12 Td's, However 8 came in the first 4 games and he is banged up with a knee injury last week but is probable this week. He is only averaging 55 yards per game last 4 with 1Td per game.
Houston freshman QB (should have been 2nd or 3rd string but starts due to injuries). He has 11 TD's and 3 pics for the season, however looking a little deeper shows that 5 came against the #119 ranked Defense last week in Memphis and 3 aginast the #116 ranked passing defense in Rice......not quite the CFU caliber.
Special Teams: Houston has great kick returners and punt returners. UCF is just as explosive in this area. This is really a push.
Kicking definately goes to Houston as UCF is ranked #118 in Fg% and I'll give the punting to Houston as well. Frankly I don't see this has being of much importance as I don't see the game coming down to FG's.
My largest play for the week
Central Florida Knights -1
good luck
good luck
No offense but what possible reason do you have other than something from last year? I understand gut feelings but I always look to make sure the facts may support my gut.......and it's a big gut
No offense but what possible reason do you have other than something from last year? I understand gut feelings but I always look to make sure the facts may support my gut.......and it's a big gut
Good luck.....I don't think the line looks fishy, but I'm glad I have it at -1 only because it's moved to -2.5.
Good luck.....I don't think the line looks fishy, but I'm glad I have it at -1 only because it's moved to -2.5.
Or maybee Las Vegas wants you to think something is fishy so you will do what you just did and bet on Houston.........or maybee....they "want you to think that Vegas thinks that they want you to think something is fishy, but in reality they are really up to fishyness by trying to trick you into this fishy line, meanwhile you are feeling like it's fishy so instead of betting on your first fishy thought, you rethink it because i'ts fishy, then you bet on the fishy line"?
Or maybee Las Vegas wants you to think something is fishy so you will do what you just did and bet on Houston.........or maybee....they "want you to think that Vegas thinks that they want you to think something is fishy, but in reality they are really up to fishyness by trying to trick you into this fishy line, meanwhile you are feeling like it's fishy so instead of betting on your first fishy thought, you rethink it because i'ts fishy, then you bet on the fishy line"?
If my facts that I post turn you away than good for you. I could care less if I'm on the side that everyone is on or not on, never have and never will. I NEVER EVER look at this sort of crap......hell people will argue on COVERS all the time about who is public, squares, blah blah blah. Conspiracy theories hold no water with me and I would NEVER change my bet based on someones post, that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
Go KNIGHTS!!!
Look at the text that I highlighted... I was commenting on your reason for the drop in the line that HOU is a public team. Most people in the world have no idea who HOU is that I can assure you. Hell they might not even know anyone in C-USA. My point was that it is reverse line movement. Now you are right the line is bouncing back up which makes me inclined to agree with you. It is not uncommon at all to see this type of line movement. I wasn't busting your balls just talking about your comment. If I bet this game it will be without a doubt on your side... I just want to watch this line movement closer.
If my facts that I post turn you away than good for you. I could care less if I'm on the side that everyone is on or not on, never have and never will. I NEVER EVER look at this sort of crap......hell people will argue on COVERS all the time about who is public, squares, blah blah blah. Conspiracy theories hold no water with me and I would NEVER change my bet based on someones post, that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
Go KNIGHTS!!!
Look at the text that I highlighted... I was commenting on your reason for the drop in the line that HOU is a public team. Most people in the world have no idea who HOU is that I can assure you. Hell they might not even know anyone in C-USA. My point was that it is reverse line movement. Now you are right the line is bouncing back up which makes me inclined to agree with you. It is not uncommon at all to see this type of line movement. I wasn't busting your balls just talking about your comment. If I bet this game it will be without a doubt on your side... I just want to watch this line movement closer.
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