Hey Everyone, First let me say say sorry for not getting to post more or respond to PM's over the last few months - have had multiple personal matters to attend to and this is one of the extra-cirricular activities that had to get cut (not to mention got undercut under the basket playing basketball and suffered a fractured ankle and tibia/fibula). Everything is fine now and I'm hoping to post a few of my "favorite" plays to covers when time allows.
That being said, I'm having one of my best seasons to date (more that doubled my bankroll since the start of the cbb season). Now this could mean that I'm due for a course-correction so consider this (and future) plays with a grain of salt and realize that past performance doesn't ensure present/future success. With that being said though, in one of my next posts we are going to really need to go over some of basics of situational and value betting as some (read: most) of these threads are so painful to read.
On to the play, I'm making a larger than normal play today on
northeastern +8. When the line opened originally in Vegas Sunday afternoon it was ODU -7
and was ODU -8.5 when 5dimes opened it. I ended up grabbing it for 2-units at Northeastern +8, and I'm now seeing +7.5 at most shops (yes, I still like it and please read below why).
First, I have these two teams ranked much more closely than most do and I believe that we are getting a very good number for a number of reasons.
1.
Old dominion beat northeastern at northeastern by 10 WAY BACK on
December 3rd, this might as well have been 2 years ago as this is a very
young NE team (3 of their top 6 contributors are freshman) and this
game also featured a few abnormalities as ODU shot 34 free throws (12
more than their season average), making 27 of them (80% while they actually shoot 60% for the season) consequently NE was in crazy foul
trouble and the extra bench minutes contributes to 22 NE turnovers (15
via steals) and ODU got 16 offensive rebounds (NE is undersized but they
aren't getting murdered on the glass like this game). So with 16
offensive rebounds, 22 turnovers with 15 via steals resulting in
transition baskets, 27 made free throws and getting to take advantage of a) NE's youth and
inexperience and b) an increased number of bench minutes ODU was able to
win by . . . 10 points.
2. ODU's recent success and numbers can be thanks in part to getting to face Towson twice in their last five games.
3.
NE is coming of a DD loss at drexel on saturday, a game where Drexel
(ranked worse than 300 last year in 3's) went nuts from 3-pt land. They
built a huge early lead, NE fought back with a 15-0 run to draw back
close before half and then Drexel continued their 3-pt barrage in the
2nd half and NE ran out of gas (great for us). In the post-game comments
Drexel coach Bruiser Flint kept referencing how inexplicable their
three point shooting was that night.
A combination of the three above factors make this line inflated by around 3 points (in my opinion).
A few other notes: *This is a
series that has been hotly contested as going back to 2006 till the
start of this year, neither team had won two games in a row against the
other (that stat changed when ODU won in December).
*NE has played
a much tougher schedule to date (in terms of the defensive efficiency
of their opponents).
*NE is also learning to win on the road as they has
won four straight road games in the last three weeks before the Drexel
setback on Saturday.
*ODU has only beaten two teams inside of
kenpom's top 200 at home this season (and they even lost a home game to
Vermont, a team that NE beat AT Vermont).
*ODU is in a very weird
part of the schedule as they had a road game last Wednesday, followed by
a road game last Saturday, followed by this home game on Monday and
they leave Tuesday morning for one more road game on Wednesday (vs our
scrappy little uncw team) before finally coming home for a "homestand".
This is very much like a four game road trip except that the third game
is played on familiar rims.
*On the other hand, NE this is a brief two game road trip
(one they wanted to come back home with a split and understanding that this being the more winnable game), before
heading home for a three game homestand where the first two are games
they will be favored in and expect to win.
*This is the very first time that this young team has gotten to try to avenge an "in-season" loss and if you have ever been around college athletes like I have, you know that there is certainly some extra motivation to get some "getback" the second time around.
Of course I'll still
be all over google news and twitter reading all my articles and feeds
looking for other information but I wrote all this to say that this is
the very definition of value. An overvalued team vs an undervalued team
where many aspects point to ODU (see number 1,2,3 above making them a
square players dream) while situationally it sets up much better for the
underdog. The last time I found value like this I had a 4-unit bet on Kansas -4.5 AT Oklahoma (a game that I have capped at Kansas -10). This game should be ODU -4.5 to -5 IMO so this makes it a multiple unit must-play for me.
Please understand that I'm not at all saying this is a sure thing (just look at the craziness I
described that occurred during their first meeting), but it's the type of game and
situation that we should be striving to get our money in on.
Good luck with whatever you decide Northeastern +8 for (currently) 3-units (I've only had four or five bets over 1-unit the entire season)
Hey Everyone, First let me say say sorry for not getting to post more or respond to PM's over the last few months - have had multiple personal matters to attend to and this is one of the extra-cirricular activities that had to get cut (not to mention got undercut under the basket playing basketball and suffered a fractured ankle and tibia/fibula). Everything is fine now and I'm hoping to post a few of my "favorite" plays to covers when time allows.
That being said, I'm having one of my best seasons to date (more that doubled my bankroll since the start of the cbb season). Now this could mean that I'm due for a course-correction so consider this (and future) plays with a grain of salt and realize that past performance doesn't ensure present/future success. With that being said though, in one of my next posts we are going to really need to go over some of basics of situational and value betting as some (read: most) of these threads are so painful to read.
On to the play, I'm making a larger than normal play today on
northeastern +8. When the line opened originally in Vegas Sunday afternoon it was ODU -7
and was ODU -8.5 when 5dimes opened it. I ended up grabbing it for 2-units at Northeastern +8, and I'm now seeing +7.5 at most shops (yes, I still like it and please read below why).
First, I have these two teams ranked much more closely than most do and I believe that we are getting a very good number for a number of reasons.
1.
Old dominion beat northeastern at northeastern by 10 WAY BACK on
December 3rd, this might as well have been 2 years ago as this is a very
young NE team (3 of their top 6 contributors are freshman) and this
game also featured a few abnormalities as ODU shot 34 free throws (12
more than their season average), making 27 of them (80% while they actually shoot 60% for the season) consequently NE was in crazy foul
trouble and the extra bench minutes contributes to 22 NE turnovers (15
via steals) and ODU got 16 offensive rebounds (NE is undersized but they
aren't getting murdered on the glass like this game). So with 16
offensive rebounds, 22 turnovers with 15 via steals resulting in
transition baskets, 27 made free throws and getting to take advantage of a) NE's youth and
inexperience and b) an increased number of bench minutes ODU was able to
win by . . . 10 points.
2. ODU's recent success and numbers can be thanks in part to getting to face Towson twice in their last five games.
3.
NE is coming of a DD loss at drexel on saturday, a game where Drexel
(ranked worse than 300 last year in 3's) went nuts from 3-pt land. They
built a huge early lead, NE fought back with a 15-0 run to draw back
close before half and then Drexel continued their 3-pt barrage in the
2nd half and NE ran out of gas (great for us). In the post-game comments
Drexel coach Bruiser Flint kept referencing how inexplicable their
three point shooting was that night.
A combination of the three above factors make this line inflated by around 3 points (in my opinion).
A few other notes: *This is a
series that has been hotly contested as going back to 2006 till the
start of this year, neither team had won two games in a row against the
other (that stat changed when ODU won in December).
*NE has played
a much tougher schedule to date (in terms of the defensive efficiency
of their opponents).
*NE is also learning to win on the road as they has
won four straight road games in the last three weeks before the Drexel
setback on Saturday.
*ODU has only beaten two teams inside of
kenpom's top 200 at home this season (and they even lost a home game to
Vermont, a team that NE beat AT Vermont).
*ODU is in a very weird
part of the schedule as they had a road game last Wednesday, followed by
a road game last Saturday, followed by this home game on Monday and
they leave Tuesday morning for one more road game on Wednesday (vs our
scrappy little uncw team) before finally coming home for a "homestand".
This is very much like a four game road trip except that the third game
is played on familiar rims.
*On the other hand, NE this is a brief two game road trip
(one they wanted to come back home with a split and understanding that this being the more winnable game), before
heading home for a three game homestand where the first two are games
they will be favored in and expect to win.
*This is the very first time that this young team has gotten to try to avenge an "in-season" loss and if you have ever been around college athletes like I have, you know that there is certainly some extra motivation to get some "getback" the second time around.
Of course I'll still
be all over google news and twitter reading all my articles and feeds
looking for other information but I wrote all this to say that this is
the very definition of value. An overvalued team vs an undervalued team
where many aspects point to ODU (see number 1,2,3 above making them a
square players dream) while situationally it sets up much better for the
underdog. The last time I found value like this I had a 4-unit bet on Kansas -4.5 AT Oklahoma (a game that I have capped at Kansas -10). This game should be ODU -4.5 to -5 IMO so this makes it a multiple unit must-play for me.
Please understand that I'm not at all saying this is a sure thing (just look at the craziness I
described that occurred during their first meeting), but it's the type of game and
situation that we should be striving to get our money in on.
Good luck with whatever you decide Northeastern +8 for (currently) 3-units (I've only had four or five bets over 1-unit the entire season)
GL on your play tonight, Northeastern just played Drexel & Old Dom last played V.C.U.. I don't think Drexel will cover against Bil & Mary tonight, so will play on Northeastern +8.5 buy 1/2 pt.
GL on your play tonight, Northeastern just played Drexel & Old Dom last played V.C.U.. I don't think Drexel will cover against Bil & Mary tonight, so will play on Northeastern +8.5 buy 1/2 pt.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.