Cincinnati/Depaul
Cincy is coming off five snails in a row and now get Depaul’s style of play and awful defense, which should open up an offense that is struggling mightily to score. In their last six games they have scored 52, 58, 53, 72, 55, and 59. This will be a rematch of a previous meeting this year in which Cincy held Depaul to 60 points in a 76-60 victory. In that game, they took care of Depaul’s pressure beautifully and made a key run in the 1H to put the game away. Depaul was held without a three-pointer in the 1H and only got to the FT line five times in that 1H, and shot a 28% from the field clip in that 1H as well. The 2H, they got back to playing their style of basketball, and they actually outplayed Cincy in that 2H. Simply put, Cincy’s defense put the clamps down for one half of play and this resulted in a few 4 minute stretches where Depaul couldn’t muster a single point. Now, the tides have reversed. That Cincy homestand to begin the Big East this year resulted in two home wins against fast paced squads, and a third home game with rival Xavier. Since then, their offense has been pretty much non-existent and when they have won ballgames, it has been because of their defense. From the time they were undefeated starting out conference play, to the time now, they are shades of a different team. Yancy Gates, a pivotal part to both their interior and perimeter offense has been suspended indefinitely. A big man with size and the ability to rebound only helps their guards in the scoring department as a team overall. It looks like he has made the trip, but how much he plays or if he even plays will be in question. Depaul’s offense has been nothing special. They lack outside scoring, but they have been better from that department at home. This is probably a good of shot as any they’ll have to break the 23 game losing streak, and I think the big reason is because of Cincy’s offense. Obviously, the Cincy defense takes a hit without Gates, which should open up a few things on the interior, which is going to be Depaul’s strength. The first meeting these two teams played saw a total of 129 shots and a 136 total. One would have to think that lesser shots are taken here, which would add value to the under. Depaul is also playing its third game in the past 6 days and will be playing it’s first of three games against the same Big East opponent it’s already played this year. Last year, they faired really well in the home slots against these teams and did not fair well on the road:
At Marquette Lost by 11, At Home vs Marquette won by 1
At Rutgers Lost by 9, At Home vs Rutgers lost by 4
At St. John’s Lost by 20, At Home vs St. John’s lost by 8 in 3OT
Generally doesn’t mean much with the coaching staff turnover and the youth and inexperience of the squad, but it is what it is. I did not look all that closely, but from what I could tell, the only time Purnell has played a team twice in a season having lost the first game on the road (last 4 years), the only time he’s came out on the losing side of the second meeting in the same season at home was Duke last year, and they were the national champs. He’s a really bad in-game coach as far as making adjustments, but when given the time to analyze what’s happened with the opponent in the first meeting, he’s taken care of business...
George Mason/UNC Wilmington
I fear a letdown from George Mason. They’ve put together a nice stretch of wins here, and they just demolished two really good teams in the CAA, and now they draw a nobody on the road before running what I would call their toughest stretch of games for the year in a return game against James Madison, a matchup probably for the conference top seed in VCU, then a bracketbuster with Northern Iowa on the road. The first meeting in this series this year resulted in a 80-52 win for Mason as they caught UNC Wilmington on the fourth game of a four game roadtrip. In that game, Mason couldn’t miss. The game was close about halfway through the first half, and they went on a 15-2 run, and all the point were from the three-point line. They shot 53% from the field, and hit eleven three’s in that game. UNC Wilmington really has two opportunities to pull the upset at home this year. The first came against VCU earlier in the year where they were a 7 point underdog. They did not shoot good, but still played with VCU for a majority of that game until late. Basically, when you look at UNC Wilmington, two things are more than likely to occur. They’re going to take quite a few three-point shots, and they’re defensive style is going to give up quite a few looks from long distance as well. The games they have won, their opponents have shot poorly or they have shot an extremely high percentage. There really isn’t a room for error with this team. Offensively, they have been better as I have noted, but they can’t really compete with the uppers in this league with the current style they’re playing. With that said, I still put the value on UNC-Wilmington in this game. George Mason is in a tough situational spot, and with that, I don’t expect them to shoot it all that well. Take an average offense against a good one in a letdown spot on the road against a team that likes it’s chances to pull an upset and this could be a ballgame. I’ve seen glimpses of UNCW this year, but they need to put it together for a full forty minutes. They missed opportunity #1 versus VCU, the only question is will they miss opportunity #2.