2-1-1 since I came back to Covers. I'm going to drop the push because it's a pain to keep track of it. So 2-1. Not exactly going to retire soon but I'll take it.
I am going to do a little writeup on all the games since there are only 4. I do have only one I am betting but I'll save it for last. But I'll give my opinion on all so if you don't have time to read just jump to the end.
Always read everyones opinions. They may find something you didn't see or think of. But in the end always make up your own mind. It is your money after all.
Conn/SD St
This line jumped 2 1/2 points from Conn -1 to SDST -1 1/2. That's pretty big if you use line moves in your capping. I don't but I have seen some interesting things when this happens.
Conn seems the logical choice coming from the "big" conference but SD ST is very scrappy. I passed this game because I could see Conn blowing them out and I can see SD ST playing solid and holding on for the win. Not enough points to protect either way so no side. I seriously don't have any lean one way or the other on a side. Pass
The total almost had me because I can see this going over 128 1/2. Neither team sits on the ball and the numbers are there for an over but I can just as easily see UConn's defense shutting down SD ST. I am not saying they will but they could. I think over is the play but.....Pass
BYU/Florida
I know a lot of people are thinking Florida will blow out the little school. But I'm not so sure. The fact that Fredette has to be looked at by two people opens up the rest of the offense. Plus this kid will fire a good three from half court anyway so good luck guarding that. Again not enough points here at 2 1/2 to really entice me so I will pass because people could be right and Fla could handle them easily. My gut says BYU but I don't really like it. Pass
The total is too high at 149 1/2 in my opinion. The numbers aren't there to support such a high total. The offenses get there together averaging 152 points per game but the defenses check in at 129. I think this goes under but I am not comfortable enough to bet it. Too close and unpredictable for me. Pass
AZ/Duke
I think this is way too many points. 9 is a lot to cover from a Duke team that seems in my opinion to do just enough to win and that's about it. AZ squeaked by their first two opponents Memphis and Texas but they are decent opponents. Dukes massacre of Hampton doesn't tell anyone anything and just squeaking by a mediocre Mich team doesn't make me ready to lay 9 points. The play here is AZ plus the points but I again am not comfortable enough to bet it. Pass
God the total is a mess. Or should I say the books got it right. Should be high scoring but could fall just short of 148 1/2. These kind of matchups make me run past the game instead of walk. I guess gun to my head I say over but I wouldn't bet on this total with someone elses money. Pass
Butler/Wisconsin
I have watched Wisconsin squeeze past opponents all year. They just aren't dominant in my opinion. Does that mean they won't dominate Butler tonight? No. They well could because Butler really hasn't been destroying people either. Butler has a nice record but who do they play each year? They had a nice run in last years tourney but we have to carfeful when betting to just look at names and jump on teams. Duke is not the same Duke from years past and neither of these teams are as good as they were a year or two ago. But that's just my opinion. I would take Butler +4 1/2 but the total looks better.
Here is my pick...............
Butler/Wisconsin over 122 1/2
I like to look at the teams averages on offense and defense. It gives me an idea of what they like to do and how they might matchup together. Butler averages 72 scored and 64 allowed. Wisc averages 68 scored and 58 allowed. Those numbers on a neutral court are Butler 67 scored and 64 allowed while Wisc scores and allow 64 on a neutral court.
I like to look at total using the teams average scored and allowed numbers and also cross look at a teams scored and the other teams allowed. By this I mean Butler 72/64 Wisc 68/58. When you do all this you see expected totals of 136, 126, 130, and 132. Each and every one of those possible scores exceeds the line total of 122 1/2. When I see that I bet it over.
That's the bet for tonight Butler/Wisconsin over 122 1/2. GL