ncaa plays for new years day.stats and writeups

3-3 today, could have been worse. play for new years day coming up.

UC Irvine enters tomorrow’s matchup with a decisive statistical edge rooted in elite defense and pace suppression. The Anteaters rank top-25 nationally in defensive efficiency, holding opponents under 41% from the field and allowing fewer than 63 points per game. Their rebounding margin consistently tilts matchups, with UCI grabbing nearly 34 defensive boards per night and limiting second-chance opportunities. Offensively, they shoot above 36% from three and maintain one of the lowest turnover rates in the conference. Combine that with a tempo ranked outside the top 250, and UCI’s ability to control rhythm becomes overwhelming. The numbers point one direction—UCI prevails. UCI minus the points.

Montana State enters tomorrow’s matchup positioned to cover thanks to a statistical profile built on efficiency and resilience. The Bobcats shoot nearly 47% from the field and over 36% from three, giving them reliable scoring across all four quarters. Their defense forces turnovers on 18% of opponent possessions, creating extra scoring opportunities and preventing long opponent runs. Montana State also hits 75% at the free-throw line, a critical edge in tight spreads. With a rebounding rate above 51% and a bench contributing nearly 28% of total points, MSU’s balance and consistency make covering the number not just possible— but probable.

UCI is - 9.5

Montana and Northern Arizona project strongly toward the under thanks to two defensive-leaning profiles and slow, methodical tempo. Montana allows just 66 points per game and holds opponents to 42% shooting, including only 31% from three. NAU isn’t far behind, giving up 68 points while limiting teams to 45% overall. Both offenses rank in the bottom third nationally in pace, with Montana averaging just 66 possessions per game and NAU around 67. Neither team excels at generating second-chance points, combining for under 25% offensive rebounding. With long possessions, limited efficiency, and controlled tempo, the under becomes the logical outcome. UNDER 148.5

UC Irvine’s matchup profiles strongly toward the under thanks to two defenses built to slow tempo and limit efficiency. UCI allows just 64 points per game while holding opponents to 41% shooting and only 30% from three. Their pace ranks outside the top 250 nationally, averaging roughly 66 possessions per game—ideal for suppressing totals. Opponents generate second-chance points on less than 27% of misses, further reducing scoring volatility. On the other side, UCI’s offense is efficient but methodical, scoring in the low 70s while using long possessions. With slow tempo, strong defense, and limited transition chances, the under becomes the logical outcome.

UCI total is UNDER 140.5