got a tourney game EKY AT Jacksonville , Jacksonville won both meetings this year and they played just 2 games ago I with Jacksoinville winning at home 55-59 , and Jax won at EKY earlier 82-75, the old saying hard to beat a team 3 times in the same year??? as far as totals do teams play more cautious in tourney games?? slowing it down ?? I am going to go UNDER 143.5 -120 they just played to a 59-55 game, and I just do not see this going higher than like 135 , of the 6 times these 2 have played 4 unders 2 overs Jax at home is 2-9 under, and as a home favorite 2-6 under, EKY does have some ok Over trends, and off a win they both favor OVER, but like I said I think this is slower, with the spread being 2.5 , I think Jax could win again but going to try and UNDER here
Under 143.5 1 unit
another tourney game is Queens at FGCU , talk about 2 diff games being played, when these 2 played at Queens earlier in the year Queens won 92-83 in a very high scoring game, then they played at FGCU and FGCU won 60-47, so totally diff style of games, so what does this one bring? in the game at FGCU the spread was FGCU-5 151 today it is FGCU-5 146 in the game at FGCU queens shot really bad and were behind at halftime 40-19, fouls, turnovers, ft's rebounding were all equal it was just poor shooting as queens shot just 29% 16/55, FGCU only shot 43% which is about their avg, FGCU has won 4 in a row including 3 at home and have won their last 9 of 10 at home, Queens is 8-8 STR up away and 9-7 ats away, and are 4-11 str up as a dog and 2-8 STR up as an away dog , and 4-6 ats as an away dog, FGCU is 11-4 STR up at home and 15-5 STR up as a favorite , and 11-2 STR up as a home favorite and 8-7 ats at home and 11-9 ats as a favorite , and 8-5 ats as a home favorite, in the last game del st won at home 84-82 but they did take like 20 more shots in that game than Morgan st did as they had like 11 more offensive rebounds, but only shot 38% 32/83 and Morgan st was 28/64 44% both teams made 5 3's is all and both took about 11 ft's actually del st should have won by more getting 20 more shots but they didn't shoot well, this total is like 163+ so they are expecting a higher scoring game which makes sense , Morgan st is 10-4 at home STR up and 3-1 STR up as a home fav and 4-1 STR up as a favorite, have done well with Delaware st, they have won the last 3 vs Morgan st but I think tonight Morgan st might be the play here, at home and maybe they feel they should have won that 1st meeting, so I give them the edge here, 3-1 ats as a home favorite, 7-3 ats at home, should be a higher scoring game but I think Morgan st gets this by 4+
Morgan st ML -120 1 unit
well Houston Christian got me last game as an away dog, they were winning the whole game and blew it in the last 5 mins, and I got a push others lost, they are usually really good ats as a dog, today they are a favorite, they are 3-1 STR up and ats as a favorite and 1-0 ats and STR up as an away favorite, I am hoping after that collapse last game that they are as pissed as we were, I know I would be, knowing you had a lead for the whole game, until the last minute, I am taking them -1.5 -120 hate leaving the half pt but am not spending a higher juice buying down a half pt is enough and I do feel they win this by 5 so hopefully it should not matter , another reason I like them tonight is the 1st meeting was in December and HC won at home 83-79 and they only took 42 shots and were 22/42 and EAM took 59 shots and were 27/59 but HC did get 39 ft's in that game making 30 and EAM was 18/22, so some things in that game could point to A+M but I think HC is the better cover here and as favorite do play well , they are not favored a lot , and coming off the last game I hope they really want this game
Houston Christian -1.5 1 unit
have a game that looks good tonight ICW@NW st now both teams have been winning with ICW winning their last 4 including 2 road games and NW st winning their last 3 including the last game where they were down 10 with 4 mins left and Houston Christian could not make a basket and lost by 5 , these 2 played earlier in the year at ICW and NW st jumped out to a 42-29 halftime lead and yet ICW came back and actually had the lead 70-69 with 2 mins left and lost 72-70, NW st was 25/53 47.2% and were 7/15 from 3 46%, and were 15/18 at the line....and ICW was 25/52 48% and were 11/24 from 3 46% and were 9/11 at the line so both teams shot really well and were both good from 3 and at the ft line , NW st did make 6 more ft's and maybe that won it for them ...NW st has won the last 9 in this series and the last 3 they were the dog, I think this line is saying ICW may be the play here, who only +2 on the road? both teams come into this game shooting well, ICW last 3 shooting 50% and 50% from 3 ..NW st last 3 shooting 48% and 44% from 3 and home and away they both shoot the same 44% this will be a good game I think here, and I do favor ICW here, NW st was very lucky to have even won their last game, it was a collapse by HC , they lost the game and it was at NW st, NW st is not great at home they are 5-4 STR up as a home fav, and 3-5-1 ats, and ICW is 9-4 ats away this year and are 6-4 ats as an away dog, and then some same team looks NW st lost at East Texas 50-72 and ICW just won at East Texas 75-68, NW st lost at home to Lamar by 10 65-75 and ICW just won vs Lamar at home 73-61, NW st lost at home to SF Austin 68-70 and ICW just beat SFA at home 63-61
Grabbing ICW here +3 -120 1 unit
usually I am a N.Texas backer, tonight I am on Wichita st and the points, Wichita st is not a bad team on the road, and they do cover, and N texas has not been great at home, N Texas has won all 3 meetings but all have been within 10 pts, I think Wichita state can keep this close, the total on this game is low at 128 or real close, last 3 games Wichita st is avg 75 pts a game while giving up 71, but its N Texas that has been holding teams to just 54 pts a game the last 3 while scoring 66, and away Wichita st is avg 73 pts while giving up 76 at home N Texas is avg 71 and giving up 58, last time these 2 played N Texas won at Wichita 58-54, N Texas shot 40% at 22/55 and Wichita shot 36% 18/50 neither team could shoot the 3 very well as each team made just 3 3 pointers n Texas was 11/11 at the line while Wichita st was 15/18 , reason N Texas won in my view is they had 5 more shots based on offensive rebounds where they had 13 to just 8 which lead to the 5 extra shots ..very ugly game too...lol as it was 54-52 with 3 mins left and really no scoring after that, it was 58-54 with a minute to go and no one scored not even foul shots which in a close game you would expect some , just think Wichita can again keep this close NT is 5-6-1 ats at home and as a home favorite, Wichita st is 5-4 ats away and 5-3-1 ats as a dog and 3-2 ats as an away dog
wichita st +7.5 -120 1.5 units
morgan st is now +1 and this is a game where I went back and forth on , Del st has been good to me but I am staying with Morgan st here, I would have hated that Delaware st was getting the money is I was on them line has moved 2.5 pts and I hate when these lines open as -1 and move to +1 usually the opening favorite still wins
EKY did just lose by 4 at Jacksonville, and in that game they did get 9 extra shots by controlling the boards, it was a 1 point game with 15 sec's left and it was very close through out I am going to take EKY tonight and hope it is hard to beat a team 3 times in the same year, these 2 just played on 2-24 and this line has not moved all day which shows even action and I like that I was leaning them to begin with
EKY+3 1.5 units and need the under EKY 67-65
Nicholls st +3 1.5 units
Nicholls st is much better away than at home this team is 11-2-2 ats away and 9-2-2 ats as an away dog and 8-7 STR up away and Lamar is 3-5 ats as a home favorite last 3 games Nicholls is avg 86 pts a game while giving up 74 and Lamar last 3 are avg 66 and 64 and Nicholls comes in shooting almost 50 % last 3 game to 40% for Lamar and Nicholls shoots better away than Lamar does at home
Nicholls st +3 1.5 units
I believe Lamar starts three seniors and it is senior night. 66% of spread and 80% of money on Lamar. The line has moved from 1 1/2 to 2 1/2. Lamar has a better defensive efficiency (121) to Nicholls State (196). Lamar has a better rebound offensive rebound percent (35) to (31) for Nicholls, and better three point and free throw shooting. It is also a buy low sell high spot for Lamar losing last two while Nicholls has won four.
I have to go with Lamar tonight, but you have proved me wrong before!
Good luck and sorry for your loss.
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
