15 of the last
17 champions have possessed six key attributes. Those teams:
- Are
seeded 1 through 4
- Come
from a Big Six Conference (i.e., Pac 10, SEC, ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Big
East)
- Went
to the previous year's tournament
- Have
a coach who has been to the tourney at least 5 times
- Score
more than 77 points per game
- Win
by an average of at least 10 points per game over the course of the season
Only 4 teams
meet all those conditions:
- North
Carolina
- Duke
- Kansas
- Tennessee
Teams that come into the tournament winning 8 or more games in a row tend to underachieve. Bad news for: UCLA, North Carolina, Kansas
The teams that are more frontcourt dominant in terms of scoring overachieve. Good news for: Louisville, Xavier, Stanford
Over the last 23 years, the Pac 10 has been the worst performing conference. Bad news for: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Oregon, Arizona
Never pick a champion lower than 4 seed. Bad news for: The 48 teams seeded 5-16.
Never pick a final four contender lower than a 6 seed. Bad news for: the 40 teams seeded 7-16.
Never pick a bigger upset than a 12 over a 5.
Never pick a midmajor to the final four. Bad news for: Memphis, and all the other non Big 6 conference teams
Pick teams that shoot a lot of three pointers. That means someone high up this list.
https://www.kenpom.com/tmleaders.php?c=F3Grate