As you can see why im taking a break... NW covering for 35 mintues and now on a complete collapse...
I have not seen your plays, but I am on Penn St. and sort of put that to the back after I saw the numbers they had about 1/4 of the way through the 2nd H (posted in my thread).....if you had NW, sorry bud, but I am happy that Penn St. finally woke up. You are in Big 10 country, why were you leaning NW? Usually Penn St. @ home is a tough game and when they play NW, usually is not as competitive.
As you can see why im taking a break... NW covering for 35 mintues and now on a complete collapse...
I have not seen your plays, but I am on Penn St. and sort of put that to the back after I saw the numbers they had about 1/4 of the way through the 2nd H (posted in my thread).....if you had NW, sorry bud, but I am happy that Penn St. finally woke up. You are in Big 10 country, why were you leaning NW? Usually Penn St. @ home is a tough game and when they play NW, usually is not as competitive.
That sucks you missed the early games, but maybe it's for the better ......
Like all the game, but can you give me your thoughts on Illinois St? I am hammering Evansville today. They are out to prove they are the team to beat and I think they might even get the SU win here....most likely not,but I see this being closer than the number suggests....ILSt, in my mind, is not as good as they were last year, neither is Drake, but I think Evansville is improved from last year. I thnk they have enough and will get the Red Birds all they can handle.
Not sure if check my plays regularly but I'm a system player... I run my numbers and if they fit a certain profile then I count them as a lean. In this case, my neutral court numbers have Illinois St by a basket. And I have found that when Vegas runs a line that is 3-4 times greater than this number, it tends to hit at a very high percentage. I then check it against the public action and line movement to see if I want to wager it. In this case, the line has gone to -8 with only 30% hitting Illinois State. It was -7.5 last night. These are all signs to me that tell me that Illinois St is a strong play. Evansville strength is at home where they have crushed this season. Illinois St is 8-0 at home and has only failed to cover on of those games.
That sucks you missed the early games, but maybe it's for the better ......
Like all the game, but can you give me your thoughts on Illinois St? I am hammering Evansville today. They are out to prove they are the team to beat and I think they might even get the SU win here....most likely not,but I see this being closer than the number suggests....ILSt, in my mind, is not as good as they were last year, neither is Drake, but I think Evansville is improved from last year. I thnk they have enough and will get the Red Birds all they can handle.
Not sure if check my plays regularly but I'm a system player... I run my numbers and if they fit a certain profile then I count them as a lean. In this case, my neutral court numbers have Illinois St by a basket. And I have found that when Vegas runs a line that is 3-4 times greater than this number, it tends to hit at a very high percentage. I then check it against the public action and line movement to see if I want to wager it. In this case, the line has gone to -8 with only 30% hitting Illinois State. It was -7.5 last night. These are all signs to me that tell me that Illinois St is a strong play. Evansville strength is at home where they have crushed this season. Illinois St is 8-0 at home and has only failed to cover on of those games.
I didnt play it Short just giving SK some of my leans today if i played in anythig. i strongly felt it was a good spot for NW to pick up a solid road win...
I didnt play it Short just giving SK some of my leans today if i played in anythig. i strongly felt it was a good spot for NW to pick up a solid road win...
I didnt play it Short just giving SK some of my leans today if i played in anythig. i strongly felt it was a good spot for NW to pick up a solid road win...
Penn St is just a real tough to play, especially for NW. But what do I know. I thought Minn was in a good spot to actually beat Mich St at home since Sutton did not look like he 100% in shape after the injury and with Roe out .......So much for that thought. Glad you laid off NW .....now I don't feel real bad winning
I didnt play it Short just giving SK some of my leans today if i played in anythig. i strongly felt it was a good spot for NW to pick up a solid road win...
Penn St is just a real tough to play, especially for NW. But what do I know. I thought Minn was in a good spot to actually beat Mich St at home since Sutton did not look like he 100% in shape after the injury and with Roe out .......So much for that thought. Glad you laid off NW .....now I don't feel real bad winning
Thanks for the response. I now have to look this over again and make a decision before game time. I'm glad you shared it's a system play so I can add some factors to this and either let my play ride or get out while I can. I have 10 units on Evansville right now and seeing this made me think wtf, especially since I am on or like most of your plays.
Thanks for the response. I now have to look this over again and make a decision before game time. I'm glad you shared it's a system play so I can add some factors to this and either let my play ride or get out while I can. I have 10 units on Evansville right now and seeing this made me think wtf, especially since I am on or like most of your plays.
This is weird ....agree with you on all your plays but the Evansville one and that's my hammer today......I should be wise and lay off the game since I respect your and your system, but I have to go with what I have capped and let my 10 units ride on Evansville.
While I will be upset if I lose, I will just move on to the next one and at least I know a winner and he couldn't be a better guy.
This is weird ....agree with you on all your plays but the Evansville one and that's my hammer today......I should be wise and lay off the game since I respect your and your system, but I have to go with what I have capped and let my 10 units ride on Evansville.
While I will be upset if I lose, I will just move on to the next one and at least I know a winner and he couldn't be a better guy.
This is weird ....agree with you on all your plays but the Evansville one and that's my hammer today......I should be wise and lay off the game since I respect your and your system, but I have to go with what I have capped and let my 10 units ride on Evansville.
While I will be upset if I lose, I will just move on to the next one and at least I know a winner and he couldn't be a better guy.
At the end of the day, it's a 50/50 prop. It can go either way, and truthfully, you have more at stake than I do on the game so I hope it works out for you. I also bought it down to -6.5 so maybe we can middle at 7 pts and we both win.
This is weird ....agree with you on all your plays but the Evansville one and that's my hammer today......I should be wise and lay off the game since I respect your and your system, but I have to go with what I have capped and let my 10 units ride on Evansville.
While I will be upset if I lose, I will just move on to the next one and at least I know a winner and he couldn't be a better guy.
At the end of the day, it's a 50/50 prop. It can go either way, and truthfully, you have more at stake than I do on the game so I hope it works out for you. I also bought it down to -6.5 so maybe we can middle at 7 pts and we both win.
I really want to pull the trigger on North Texas, but I can't do it. Stars are not aligning all the way on this one, but I do believe they are they right play even though Middle Tenn has been damn good to me of late.
I will say for anyone on the fence, the home team has dominated this matchup. The one time it didn't in the last ten meetings between the two, North Texas blew a free throw at the end of the game which would have most likely nailed a cover for them -- instead they had to foul and ended up losing SU.
I really want to pull the trigger on North Texas, but I can't do it. Stars are not aligning all the way on this one, but I do believe they are they right play even though Middle Tenn has been damn good to me of late.
I will say for anyone on the fence, the home team has dominated this matchup. The one time it didn't in the last ten meetings between the two, North Texas blew a free throw at the end of the game which would have most likely nailed a cover for them -- instead they had to foul and ended up losing SU.
Good call on the Evansville game....still early, but it's looking bad at this time.
I have 2 pushes in the NCAAF today and I won with Penn St <---with that crappy shooting.
Duquesne & LaSalle in play and a ML Parlay with Pitt-NC State-LSU (was to keep me from betting the games since I liked the dogs in those games, but did not want to get buried and play alot of games and it easily could be blowouts by any of the above). This was only a unit.
By the way things are going, I am done for the day. I should be playing Ohio St. & Wyoming, but it just does not feel like the day I was expecting. I lost on Minn if I forgot to mention it.
Good call on the Evansville game....still early, but it's looking bad at this time.
I have 2 pushes in the NCAAF today and I won with Penn St <---with that crappy shooting.
Duquesne & LaSalle in play and a ML Parlay with Pitt-NC State-LSU (was to keep me from betting the games since I liked the dogs in those games, but did not want to get buried and play alot of games and it easily could be blowouts by any of the above). This was only a unit.
By the way things are going, I am done for the day. I should be playing Ohio St. & Wyoming, but it just does not feel like the day I was expecting. I lost on Minn if I forgot to mention it.
Crus... never played it bro... should've since everything lined up right. Just trying to discipline myself because sometimes (like yesterday) I end up playing 9 games. Over the long run that will kill me.
Crus... never played it bro... should've since everything lined up right. Just trying to discipline myself because sometimes (like yesterday) I end up playing 9 games. Over the long run that will kill me.
Hard to explain, but with the way I cap, it matches up two teams and gives me a number. That number I guess is what you could call margin of victory. In this case it was -2.3, basically a bucket. The line opened at -7.5, which is a very lopsided line (more than 3x what my initial number was.) Then looking at public wagering, the majority of the money was on Evansville, and with the reverse line movement, it qualified itself as a play. But no way did I imagine a blowout like that.
My intial number w/Memphis was -19.2... but the line opened at -18 (which is fair) and then with the late steam on the game and wagering at 50/50, that was a play for me. Again, I had no idea that it would cover by +14 points.
Hard to explain, but with the way I cap, it matches up two teams and gives me a number. That number I guess is what you could call margin of victory. In this case it was -2.3, basically a bucket. The line opened at -7.5, which is a very lopsided line (more than 3x what my initial number was.) Then looking at public wagering, the majority of the money was on Evansville, and with the reverse line movement, it qualified itself as a play. But no way did I imagine a blowout like that.
My intial number w/Memphis was -19.2... but the line opened at -18 (which is fair) and then with the late steam on the game and wagering at 50/50, that was a play for me. Again, I had no idea that it would cover by +14 points.
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