A very nice field for this race, which has gained much prominence since Smarty Jones won it in 2004.
Plenty of talent to choose from in a race that has no real clear cut favorite in my opinion. While War Academy at 2-1 on the ML is a bruiser, Overanalyze, Den’s Legacy and Oxbow might have something to say about it.
Let’s start with the fave.
#2 War Academy….A Giant’s Causeway colt out of an A.P. Indy mare for Bob Baffert with Mike Smith in the reins is a solid Wow! He’s 2 of 3 lifetime with a win at Santa Anita and another at Hollywood on the syn. The knock might be that he has never been out of California and has raced in nothing but short fields of 6, 6 & 5 competitors. That said, War Academy shot a 99 Beyer last out ($80K o/c) and acquitted himself well finishing a game 4th just 2-1/2 behind the winner in the San Vicente. He finished well beyond what was needed to win at 1-1/16 miles in his last win…..no distance concerns for me.
Program note says that “it’s weird to see Baffert is just 1-4 at Oak Lawn.” True, so he just might be lookin’ at lucky today.
#5 Den’s Legacy…..Part of Baffert’s B team? His record doesn’t show much—11/2-5-2—but always knocking on the door. He finished 3rd in the Rebel (2 out); 2nd in the Lewis to talented Flashback. In the Sham, he lost by just 1-1/2; lost by 3-3/4 in the Cash Call. He won the G-3 Generous….career at 7/1-4-2 with all but one race graded stakes! I am not a Robbie Albarado fan, but he is good at this track. Den’s has never raced at this distance, but the breeding says he will. While he appears to be a tad below the leaders, Baffert knows this race as well as anyone. Choosing Albarado is a clue for me that this could be the day.
A very nice field for this race, which has gained much prominence since Smarty Jones won it in 2004.
Plenty of talent to choose from in a race that has no real clear cut favorite in my opinion. While War Academy at 2-1 on the ML is a bruiser, Overanalyze, Den’s Legacy and Oxbow might have something to say about it.
Let’s start with the fave.
#2 War Academy….A Giant’s Causeway colt out of an A.P. Indy mare for Bob Baffert with Mike Smith in the reins is a solid Wow! He’s 2 of 3 lifetime with a win at Santa Anita and another at Hollywood on the syn. The knock might be that he has never been out of California and has raced in nothing but short fields of 6, 6 & 5 competitors. That said, War Academy shot a 99 Beyer last out ($80K o/c) and acquitted himself well finishing a game 4th just 2-1/2 behind the winner in the San Vicente. He finished well beyond what was needed to win at 1-1/16 miles in his last win…..no distance concerns for me.
Program note says that “it’s weird to see Baffert is just 1-4 at Oak Lawn.” True, so he just might be lookin’ at lucky today.
#5 Den’s Legacy…..Part of Baffert’s B team? His record doesn’t show much—11/2-5-2—but always knocking on the door. He finished 3rd in the Rebel (2 out); 2nd in the Lewis to talented Flashback. In the Sham, he lost by just 1-1/2; lost by 3-3/4 in the Cash Call. He won the G-3 Generous….career at 7/1-4-2 with all but one race graded stakes! I am not a Robbie Albarado fan, but he is good at this track. Den’s has never raced at this distance, but the breeding says he will. While he appears to be a tad below the leaders, Baffert knows this race as well as anyone. Choosing Albarado is a clue for me that this could be the day.
#9 Overanalyze….Todd’s got a good one here and with Bejarano on board, he has a real chance at somewhat tasty 4-1 ML odds. The colt weakened in the Gotham, but that was his first back off the layoff and he was up against 2 of the 4 Wood finishers (Vyjack & Elnaawi—clue enough?) and contentious West Hills Giant (see Blue Grass Stakes). This guy is 6/3-0-1 with five of those in graded stakes and two graded wins. He has a win at this distance and looks like a potential monster.
#10 Oxbow….Too bad that a lot of people wish that D. Wayne would just go away (i.e. Dublin, Optimizer come to mind), but there is something a bit different about this son of Awesome Again. First of all, he is in every race winning 2 times in 8 starts with a place, show and 2 fourth places. His last two losses in the Rebel and Risen Star were by a total of ¾ of a length. New life Gary Stevens rides and he is a must consider for a major piece, if he doesn’t win it all.
#4 Falling Sky….I was very impressed with this Lion Heart colt up against Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby for the first minute and ten seconds of the race. Then, he did what his daddy did a few times and weakened in the final two furlongs. That’s not a dis’ on Lion Heart, but like most of his kids, they should stick to a mile or less. He’s done nothing wrong (5/3-0-1), but I don’t by him at the distance at the expected pace.
My picks:
This should be a close race, but if any of these can stalk and pounce then run away, it’s #9 Overanalyze, who will need a bit of a rate by Bejarano.
#9 Overanalyze….Todd’s got a good one here and with Bejarano on board, he has a real chance at somewhat tasty 4-1 ML odds. The colt weakened in the Gotham, but that was his first back off the layoff and he was up against 2 of the 4 Wood finishers (Vyjack & Elnaawi—clue enough?) and contentious West Hills Giant (see Blue Grass Stakes). This guy is 6/3-0-1 with five of those in graded stakes and two graded wins. He has a win at this distance and looks like a potential monster.
#10 Oxbow….Too bad that a lot of people wish that D. Wayne would just go away (i.e. Dublin, Optimizer come to mind), but there is something a bit different about this son of Awesome Again. First of all, he is in every race winning 2 times in 8 starts with a place, show and 2 fourth places. His last two losses in the Rebel and Risen Star were by a total of ¾ of a length. New life Gary Stevens rides and he is a must consider for a major piece, if he doesn’t win it all.
#4 Falling Sky….I was very impressed with this Lion Heart colt up against Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby for the first minute and ten seconds of the race. Then, he did what his daddy did a few times and weakened in the final two furlongs. That’s not a dis’ on Lion Heart, but like most of his kids, they should stick to a mile or less. He’s done nothing wrong (5/3-0-1), but I don’t by him at the distance at the expected pace.
My picks:
This should be a close race, but if any of these can stalk and pounce then run away, it’s #9 Overanalyze, who will need a bit of a rate by Bejarano.
#9 Overanalyze.......99 Beyer in the G2 Remson beating Normandy Invasion, who, arguably, ran the best Wood coming this-close to running down Verrazano... given the race was at age 2. The Gotham is a total toss for me for Overanalyze.
#10 Oxbow.....progressive Beyer imrpovement. Starting 3 races out: 91, 93, 95. I am not a big bounce theory guy for 3-year olds, so I look for improvement, but it's going to take a 98 or better, meThinks, to beat Overanalyze.
#5 Den's Legacy....Note he was beaten by Santa Anita Derby winner Goldencents by just 1-1/2 in the Lewis. In the Rebel here, Albarado rode him to a game third--just 2 out-- to one of my faves, Will Take Charge. Oxbow was 2nd.
#2 War Academy has just one graded race and he hit a vanilla 81 (compared to this field) in it......further reason why I think he will not win.
#7 Texas Bling has a bit of cache starting with Calvin in the cockpit. Borel is an Oak Lawn warrior. Is Bling's trainer Danele Durham overmatched? Maybe not... and while I see a bland form on the animal, I must play in the 3rd part of my wheel.
#8 Frac Daddy.....This was a bonifide 2-year old contender, but what in the name of Scat Daddy has happened to him? The work coming in is beyond stellar, but it will be an effort to finish ITM. McPeak is a great trainer on youngsters and if he gets this guy right, Kenny should be feated.
#1 Carve......This is a very quiet TC season for Asmussen. This youngster has just 3 starts, but the First Samarai colt has outstanding potential. I don't like the post, but I do like the future of the horse......Note for backers and underlayers, he is 3/2-0-0 all at OP.
#9 Overanalyze.......99 Beyer in the G2 Remson beating Normandy Invasion, who, arguably, ran the best Wood coming this-close to running down Verrazano... given the race was at age 2. The Gotham is a total toss for me for Overanalyze.
#10 Oxbow.....progressive Beyer imrpovement. Starting 3 races out: 91, 93, 95. I am not a big bounce theory guy for 3-year olds, so I look for improvement, but it's going to take a 98 or better, meThinks, to beat Overanalyze.
#5 Den's Legacy....Note he was beaten by Santa Anita Derby winner Goldencents by just 1-1/2 in the Lewis. In the Rebel here, Albarado rode him to a game third--just 2 out-- to one of my faves, Will Take Charge. Oxbow was 2nd.
#2 War Academy has just one graded race and he hit a vanilla 81 (compared to this field) in it......further reason why I think he will not win.
#7 Texas Bling has a bit of cache starting with Calvin in the cockpit. Borel is an Oak Lawn warrior. Is Bling's trainer Danele Durham overmatched? Maybe not... and while I see a bland form on the animal, I must play in the 3rd part of my wheel.
#8 Frac Daddy.....This was a bonifide 2-year old contender, but what in the name of Scat Daddy has happened to him? The work coming in is beyond stellar, but it will be an effort to finish ITM. McPeak is a great trainer on youngsters and if he gets this guy right, Kenny should be feated.
#1 Carve......This is a very quiet TC season for Asmussen. This youngster has just 3 starts, but the First Samarai colt has outstanding potential. I don't like the post, but I do like the future of the horse......Note for backers and underlayers, he is 3/2-0-0 all at OP.
Yessir.....I have found that using the form helps me to handicap. However, it took me about 3 years to really figure it out. Not that I'm a great capper or anything like that, because I'm not, but I just think that the DRF fits my handicapping approach.
I bought a tape from DRF about 15-20 years ago featuring Bob Neumeier, which explianed every line of the form. It really helped me a lot
Yessir.....I have found that using the form helps me to handicap. However, it took me about 3 years to really figure it out. Not that I'm a great capper or anything like that, because I'm not, but I just think that the DRF fits my handicapping approach.
I bought a tape from DRF about 15-20 years ago featuring Bob Neumeier, which explianed every line of the form. It really helped me a lot
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.