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lmb4321
lmb4321
If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck - it isn't a duck.

Rams defense still doesn't have any edge rush and they don't have good LBs in coverage. Those are weaknesses some opponents will be able to exploit.

The offense is set on paper, but I am not sold on Goff at all. He made a huge step forward but I don't think he was really good. The supporting cast around him was just superior - McVay was calling audibles for him (yes, true) and he had the advantage of sitting in clean pockets or throwing to wide open guys off play-action. He still struggles to scan the field, fit the ball into tighter windows and to throw an accurate deep ball. Sammy Watkins was a beast last year if you watch some All-22. He created separation and was open a lot but Goff went 2 for 18 when targeting him deep (20+ yards). Famous examples were plays against Cards and Giants when I remember right. Watkins made Patrick Peterson and I guess DRC slipping and ran free into the end zone on a corner route - Goff overthrew him by like 5 yards.

When you watch Rams games you also see that Goff completely struggles with the slightest push of pressure. According to Pro Football Focus, he ranked 26th out of 29 qualifying QBs in completion and accuracy percentage when under pressure. 

His offensive line was 100% healthy last year and the offense as a whole has been the healthiest unit in the league. That screams regression, even though I don't wish anyone an injury. One major injury to that offensive line like to Sullivan or Whitworth and that offense is going to struggle.

If they stay healthy they look like a playoff team without a doubt, but playoffs gonna be tough as heck for them. At 13-1 you probably gotta let it ride out a few rounds because you won't have solid hedging opportunities.
handicap6272
handicap6272
Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:

Some good advice by Suuma.  We handicap very differently but dude always has intelligent insight. 

I create a power rating before the season and adjust it on a weekly. Use this as base for creating a line but really don't put a huge emphasis on it in terms of picking games. Recent performance can give you a beat on how the team is playing but is also good for spotting overreactions. I  prefer to focus more on team tendencies and how I think will perform against said opponent. But key is always finding value in the number. 


Can only give that compliment back!

However, after reading this, I don't think we cap very differently.
handicap6272
handicap6272
With the NFL only playing 16 regular season games, the sample size is always gonna be small. Personally I start using efficiency metrics come week 5/6, but that early it's more about analyzing over- and underperforming teams to find regression going forward rather than actually measuring the quality of teams by numbers. 

It doesn't really matter how many games you go back if you are able to interpret the numbers you get. You should always have a feel for a team in general and for their recent performances. Injuries, schedule, situational spots - so many things have an impact on numbers. Only using the rolling last four weeks to create a Power Ranking will automatically lead to misleading information and overreacting to recent performances - as you already explained by teams jumping 8-10 spots within a week. 

That doesn't help you when handicapping, because we deal with weekly lines set by markets. By creating a Power Ranking based on numbers of the last four weeks you would always adjust your Ranking into the direction of recent market perception. But the key is to identify whether the shift in market perception is driven by the fundamentals of the game or solely by overreaction / emotions.
Trev_bet
Trev_bet
Quote Originally Posted by JerryWrasse:

This feels like a thread where Suuma would come in and say something like "those saying trading for Tyrod Taylor was a bad move can't be taken serious" then throw out some random stats only to have multiple posters reply about how the numbers speak for themselves. This all despite any inclination of logic pointing in the opposite direction.  


Nah, I will throw in what I saw with my own eyes the last three years:

Tyrod is an average to above average QB. He has decent accuracy, showed a good deep ball with Watkins, can escape collapsing pockets and creates plays out of structure. He makes his mistakes, but like I said, he isn't Rodgers. He is a QB you can build around and win a lot of games. The Bills OL last year was absolutely horrible and they arguably had the worst WR corps in the NFL. Zay Jones was still in high school. Overall it was a bottom-3 supporting cast with a coaching staff that didn't want him. I honestly believe the Bills would have been far away from the playoffs with a statue at QB. Benching him for Peterman tells you everything about that staff rather than about Taylor.

He is the best QB the Browns had in a long time. The other QBs you have mentioned like Bradford, Bridgewater or McCarron come off big knee injuries or haven't played in a year. And he is easily better than Keenum. Keenum will see a huge regression next year. Moore? Come on, dude. 

suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

Thanks - I am doing well.  Counting the PHL win, I am 4-1 on this year's playoffs.

Congratulations on your excellent year.  I am sure I'll die before I ever bet over 100 games in an NFL year and pick 58% winners.


Congrats on your Philly win, DBW! Hope you win the Super Bowl!
suuma
suuma
That's a major part of sports betting - you can come up with your best analysis, but you get crushed on the spread. It happens.

The performance by the Eagles was absolutely awesome - congrats to all Philly bettors and Eagles fans out there.
undermysac
undermysac
Check your inbox, buddy!
simple3
simple3
Jaguars also collected 50% of their sacks in four games vs Houston and Indianapolis.

I think it's always about HOW you play your schedule. They made bad QBs look worse than they are.

Overall, they are a pretty good defense but they are vulnerable in base personnel. According to Sharp Football Stats, they rank 1st in YPA & 2nd in passer rating vs 3+ WRs but 28th (!) in YPA and 18th in passer rating vs 2 or less WRs. SF came out in a lot of 2 WR sets and shredded them. I expect the Pats to attack that weakness today.

BOL simple!
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by barneybeans:

BOL Suuma, laid -$115 for a -2.5. Good to see you  here slumin' reallyhappy

 

I'm not a robot



BOL beans dude!
St2ee
St2ee
BOL today, st2ee!

Barkley at #2???
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by iceman52:

I would love to be able to find your picks after the games start is that possible? The site you say you can find on google is it under your post name? Thanks and great write up couldnt have written it better myself. Thanks for you thoughts and it looks like you have some true followers on here good luck today.


Now that the thread is in website promotions: suuma.megalocks.co

Just leave me a note there or on Twitter. BOL today!
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by Silverstone:



If you can make money gambling you don't need other peoples money ,
This guys no different than Spam , you want to advertise go pay for it


Don't want to be disrespectful, but let me tell you why I think your argument is quite dumb and doesn't apply to me:

1) If you are good at something, you should always consider not doing it for free. Money is money. When a broker is good at his job, why shouldn't he do it for others who aren't as good or don't have the time? Same goes with sports betting.

2) I don't sell just picks, I sell content. There are members on my site who don't even tail my picks. They just come for the content to use it as information for their own capping or office pools or whatever.

Good luck to you moving forward!
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by Dogs4n1:

I have to agree with bunny24, especially after watching how comfortable Foles was in the 2nd half last week, which tells me, he's now finally comfortable with the offense. Hey, the last 2 games of the season were very cold and the game vs Oakland the wind was strong.... Let's look at where the Vikes played their last 7 games, including last week's playoff game....5 were played in dome stadiums, the other 2 in 42 degree weather and no wind in Carolina & 11 degrees with very little wind at Lambeau. Their defense gave up 31 pts and 216 rushing yrs to the #19 total & #4 rushing offense while their offense lost 3 turnovers (2 ints), and gave up 6 sacks to the #18 passing defense. Vs GB, they played in freezing weather vs a team that was hurting.  I'm not sure the Vikes are going to have as big advantage in the passing game as this blog insinuates, especially if Theilen is hurting...

Also, 58% winners doesn't give me much confidence, as subtracting juice for losers and the fee, I see less than 8% winnings, unless you're playing mega bucks, and then the only percentage change comes from the fee doesn't change.

Bottom line, I wouldn't bet the ranch or even the house based on this blog...



Since their 7-14 loss vs Detroit in which they lost their starting RB who was on pace for OROY and committed three fumbles, they lost one game at Carolina. There are two sides of the Vikings loss to the Panthers. First of all, we knew that it was a horrible spot for the Vikes in their 3rd straight roadie and they also didn’t have their starting C Pat Elflein for the game which was a brutal loss. During the game they also lost LT Riley Reiff. These both gaps completely altered the Vikings offense because they weren’t able to execute their scheme properly. Especially Elflein was a huge loss – DTs Short and Love combined for 3 sacks and 3 TFL. It also didn’t help that the Vikes committed crucial turnovers and costly penalties, one facemask on 3rd & 16 that led to a Panthers touchdown – drive would have been over. They also had blown assignments against the run. With the Vikings having a complete off-game, they were still in a position to win that game on the road against an NFC playoff team.

You gotta grab a calculator. At 58%, you would break even if your average odds is -139. At -110 you need 52.4% to break even / get in the money. Then, depending on your bet size, you can subtract the fee.
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by lmb4321:

suuma...what's your read on Jags/Pats??


lmb my man, hope you are fine and drink a lot of Veltins!

I am expecting a low scoring affair in which the Pats attack the Jaguars' weaknesses, tie up Ramsey & Bouye to find their matchups via passes to RBs and Gronk. Expecting a lot of 21, 12 or even 22 personnel to get the Jags out in base personnel. Bill gonna sell out vs Fournette, disrupt the play-fakes and make Bortles straight up beat them against man coverage / single high looks. Expecting a much more intelligent gameplan than the Steelers showed us.
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by TreyInventor:

A rare Suma sighting 

Bol I am digging the play. Great write up 


Trey, hope ur doing well! THanks & good luck!
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by SST:

I'm a suuma subscriber, I get no financial benefit for talking him up for him but can vouch that he's clipped 58% on his picks for a 19+ unit return this year.

Season is almost over but hope a few more posters join next season, I enjoy the writeups and talking shop with others in his forum, hope there are a few more new, qualified peeps I can compare notes with


SST my man
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by Dogjimbo:

What up, Heff?   

Like the Minny play.  GL


Doooogggg what's up? What a crazy sh*t show that was of the Steelers coaching staff. Honestly I don't know why Tomlin will be back. BOL!
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by vankiep_0007:

Bol tomorrow Suuma, good to see again


BOL Vankiep!
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by thepropkings:

Nice to see you back Suuma.  What’s your season record this year?


71-52 (58%) +19.46u / avg line -105 / avg unit size 1.1u / RoR +14.3%
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by bunny24:

Thank God the "coach" is back. I have Eagles +3.5 and I am thinking of adding to my bet amount. Temperature game time should be mid 40's. Everybody and I mean everybody is expecting a "black and Blue" type of NFC slug fest (do you even get this Suuma? Swiss Cheeser faker...People pay for your crap?...lol)..My take is that there will be plenty of scoring by opportune defenses and good weather conditions. Mark my words, Foles will surprise many on this site.  Oh by the way, this advice is free!


Hey Bunny, good luck on your Eagles pick!
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