If you listened to Aaron Rodgers’ postgame conference Sunday, you know it’s the time of year for “must-win games”.
Every year around this time, there are a select few teams who are locks to make the playoffs, a bunch who are looking forward to next year, and a group for whom the next couple weeks will decide whether they play come January. **video
As a casual fan, it’s impossible not to think that teams with something to play for will outperform and those teams who must admit their disappointing seasons are over (sorry Jaguars fans) will limp to the finish line. But we can do better than that. This week we’ll look at how team’s playoff prospects affect their results in a crucial Week 13.
The data
We’ll use data going back to 2002, when the league hit 32 teams and reorganized the divisions. Teams are broken into four categories entering Week 13:
1. Out: Three wins or fewer. No team has made the playoffs with three wins in their first 11 games.
2. Desperate: four or five wins. These teams need to win out or close to it to have a shot.
3. Bubble: six or seven wins. In control of their playoff destiny but need to finish strong.
4. Good Shape: Eight-plus wins. Will make the playoffs barring a late season collapse.
The results
Have those teams desperate for a win come through with above average performances?
The short answer looks to be no. Looking first at win percentage (blue line), we get the unsurprising result that teams that have more wins tend to win their next game more often. More importantly, we see a pretty linear relationship, there doesn’t seem to be an obvious boost for teams that need a win or negative effect for teams who are out of playoff contention.
As for ATS results (red bars), the desperate group performs significantly worse than any other group, going just 71-85-2 (45.6 percent) ATS since 2002. Drilling a bit deeper, we see they’ve struggled particularly against the better teams (a combined 33-49-1 or 40.4 percent ATS) while not outperforming versus weaker opponents.
The best performing group is the bubble teams – those teams that a win helps but whose season won’t be ended by a loss. They’re outperforming ATS against all groups, but particularly against the desperate teams, going 33-22-1 (59.8 percent) ATS. While we can’t identify the cause of this trend (are desperate teams underperforming or are bettors overrating them and moving the line?) we can still find some Week 13 spots where it might be useful.
Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta enters Week 13 needing to win out and get help to make the playoffs after struggling on both sides of the ball during their three-game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Ravens are on a two-game winning streak with Lamar Jackson at QB and, while a loss would hurt their chances, they’d still be very much alive in the crowded AFC playoff race. Bettors thus far have flocked to the Falcons after this line opened at Baltimore -3 but history favors the now-underdog Ravens.
Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs face the first in a string of tough “must-win” games if they want any hope of making the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Panthers’ playoff hopes took a bit of a blow in a loss to Seattle, but they remain firmly in the mix as we reach the stretch run. There’s every reason to believe we’ll see another big game from Christian McCaffrey and company versus a Bucs defense that can’t stop anyone (except the 49ers).
Los Angeles Rams (-10) at Detroit Lions
Despite impressive wins over the Patriots, Packers and Panthers, Detroit finds itself 4-7 and needing to beat the powerhouse Rams to keep any semblance of playoff hope alive. Detroit is missing key offensive weapons and has a defense that can’t stop anyone. Ten points doesn’t look to be enough for the underdog Lions.
