Can you believe it? The inaugural season of the revamped XFL is halfway in the books. The Houston Roughnecks are running away with the West while there’s a three-way tie atop the East. Andrew Caley digs into the latest XFL betting trends and futures heading into the second half of the season and breaks down the Week 6 XFL odds, giving his best picks and predictions for this weekend's action.
XFL BETTING TRENDS
Some quick notes through five weeks:
Scoring! We finally got some scoring. Week 5 was the highest-scoring week of the season so far, seeing an average of 48.3 points per game. And as a result, the Over finally had a winning week, going 3-1. The Under is still the most profitable total play, going at 12-8 right now but with teams starting to figure out their offenses and getting solid quarterback play, this trend towards the Over could continue this week with the average betting total at 42.5.
The XFL’s quarterback carousel has settled down, but there are still a few question marks out there. Last week, we didn’t find out the Guardians starting QB until the game started and despite Luis Perez going 2-0 SU and ATS, Kevin Gilbride hasn’t named him his permanent starter. Landry Jones is out at least one more week for the Renegades and Philip Nelson struggled in relief once again. Maybe former Syracuse star Eric Dungey will get a shot for Dallas. But perhaps the most baffling situation is in DC, where the Defenders benched Cardale Jones in favor of Tyree Jackson, who came in and gutted out a win over the first-place BattleHawks. But Pep Hamilton said the benching was planned and Jones will be the starter in Week 6. Keep an eye on all the quarterback status’ leading up to kickoff.
Lastly, it’s sounds like at least one XFL team will be playing in front of no fans this week due to concerns over the coronavirus. Washington governor Jay Inslee announced Wednesday a prohibition on all gatherings of 250 or more people, meaning the Dragons will likely play in front of empty seats and lose their home-field advantage. The Guardians and Vipers are also at risk of playing in empty stadiums as well, but as of Wednesday fans will be permitted at the Defenders game. Long live the beer snake (which should probably be banned given that it's soaking in the collective spit of an entire stadium)!
ODDS TO WIN 2020 XFL CHAMPIONSHIP
| TEAM | RECORD | ODDS TO WIN XFL |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Roughnecks | 5-0 | +175 |
| DC Defenders | 3-2 | +375 |
| St. Louis BattleHawks | 3-2 | +375 |
| Dallas Renegades | 2-3 | +700 |
| New York Guardians | 3-2 | +750 |
| Los Angeles Wildcats | 2-3 | +850 |
| Tampa Bay Vipers | 1-4 | +2500 |
| Seattle Dragons | 1-4 | +4000 |
XFL WEEK 6 PICKS
HOUSTON ROUGHNECKS AT NEW YORK GUARDIANS (+6.5, 47)
The Guardians are coming off a dominant 30-12 victory in Dallas last week as 7-point underdogs. That said, it was a ridiculous line. Without Landry Jones that line should have been closer to Renegades -1. As mentioned, Perez hasn’t been named the Guardians' starter yet but it would be shocking to see anyone else under center. While he's not flashy, Perez has been efficient and has made it possible for the ground game to flourish, as the Guardians have rumbled for 266 rushing yards the last two weeks.
That said, while the P.J. Walker, Cam Phillips and the Roughnecks offense get all the XFL headlines, their defense is secretly one of the best in the league. They rank third in opponent yards per play and allow just 3.4 yards per rush. The Roughnecks also lead the league in sacks and takeaways. Road faves are just 4-6 ATS this season, but defense travels and it’s hard to fade the best team/player in the league right now.
Pick: Roughnecks -6.5
ST. LOUIS BATTLEHAWKS AT TAMPA BAY VIPERS (+3.5, 42)
It looks like Vipers head coach Marc Trestman is starting to figure this XFL thing out. Despite losing a heartbreaker to the Wildcats last week, the Vipers have put up 27, 25, and 34 points over the last three weeks. Only the Wildcats and Roughnecks have scored more during that span.
Meanwhile, after an ugly loss in DC, the BattleHawks went from looking like the runaway best team in the East to now locked in a three-way tie for first. St. Louis scored just six points in that game and average just 15 points per game on the road. But moving the football has been a problem for the BattleHawks all season long. Their 3.3 average yards per play is better only than the Defenders and Dragons. Now you’re asking them to cover 3.5-point chalk on the road against a Vipers team on the rise? Nope.
Pick: Vipers +3.5
DALLAS RENEGADES AT DC DEFENDERS (-4.5, 35.5)
This is the toughest game of the week to handicap. As mentioned, the Renegades will once again be without Landry Jones. Nelson struggled in his second start, as Dallas averages just 3.5 yards per play with him under center. It would be nice to see Dungey get a chance to play, but we likely won’t find that out until much closer to kickoff. I’ve said it before that I believe Dungey could be an awesome player in the XFL. Here’s hoping he gets the chance.
On the other side, the Defenders are hard to figure out. Jones is apparently still the starter despite completing just 22 of his last 50 passes with no touchdowns and six interceptions over his last two-plus games. Jackson came in and went 9 for 14 for just 39 yards but ran the RPO well, rushing seven times for 32 yards as the Defenders racked up 229 rushing yards in their upset win. I hate this line, but the Defenders are 3-0 SU and ATS at home and I think Hamilton will have an extremely short leash on Jones if he starts at all.
Pick: Defenders -4.5
LOS ANGELES WILDCATS AT SEATTLE DRAGONS (+2.5, 45.5)
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the Wildcats offense has been the best in the XFL over the last three weeks. Josh Johnson is on fire, throwing for 891 yards with nine touchdowns and two picks, while the Wildcats as a whole lead the XFL with 5.6 yards per play over that span. Now they face a Dragons defense that gives up the most yards per play in the league and won’t have a home-field advantage this week.
B.J. Daniels has clearly injected some life to the Dragons offense, as they topped 20 points for the first time all season last week. But he’ll be in tough against a Wildcats team that quietly leads the XFL in opponent yards per play and is tied for the lead in takeaways.
Pick: Wildcats -2.5
NOTE: If you like the Wildcats, now is the time to pounce on them to win the title. They currently have the third longest odds to win at +850, but are tied for second in the West and are trending in the right direction. And their biggest threat for that second playoff spot is Dallas and who knows how long Landy Jones will be out.
Last week: 5-1
Season to date: 15-10
