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Going into Sunday night's game, the Cleveland Cavaliers wete steamrolling their way through the 2017 playoffs, winning all 10 of their games, most of them in dominant fashion. They cruised through the first half Sunday, hitting 64% of their 3 pointers, and widened their cushion to 21 points midway throught the third quarter. Then the cracks started to show. Lebron, who had led his team on this playoff mission of dominance, started to show fatigue bigtime - no lift left in his legs, curtailing his shooting and rebounding abilities. The Celtics clawed their way back, and won the game on a 3 pointer by Avery Bradley in the closing seconds.
Which brings us to game 4 tonight. The Cavaliers' aura of invincibility has been lost. The world now knows they can be beaten. And the Celtics who handed them the stunning defeat, have to be sky high with confidence. Not to mention that the Cavs must be in some degree of shock. Do I think the Celts will win tonight? The Cavs are the defending champions. Lebron and his excellent cast of supporting characters are anxious to get back on track on their mission of tearing through the East and then proving they can again beat the Warriors, even with the addition of Kevin Durant. So I'm not thinking that the Celts will win tonight, although this isn't saying they can't, as there's a question how much in the 48 hours between games the Cavs have gotten over stubbing their collective toe as badly as they did. But spreadwise to be getting 15 1/2 points? You do the math. Play the Boston C's tonight, plus the 15 1/2 points! |
Stew Baker | 1 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Ultimate5: Nonetheless, if he was that critical to this matchup, he'd have been getting more than 10-15 minutes a game in this series.
Sorry not the highest, but in top 5 |
Stew Baker | 10 |
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So Golden State couldn't close out Cleveland at home in game 5 for the title. How do we analyze this in terms of what it bodes for game 6? Has Cleveland elevated their game to where they can win game 6 at home, or do the Warriors show their superiority and take the crown here? Lets take a look.
Cleveland kept the game tight for 2 1/2 quarters, then took control late in the 3rd and dominated the rest of the way. I think three factors were at work here. One was the absence of Draymond Green, which was huge on the defensive end. Two was that Golden State, being up 3-1, had perhaps too much wiggle room in this spot. And third, Golden State, in trying for, and achieving the all time best regular season record, is probably a bit worn down, and this may have showed with just the one day off between games. Which brings us to game 6. Draymond Green will be back, and will be fired up (when is he not?) Note also that Golden State was good enough and motivated enough to go up 3-1 on the road in this series, so why not 4-2 here? Consider also that the fatigue factor for GS will be mitigated, as the teams have now the two days off between games here. Throughout the year, Golden States's performance had been even better than their norm with two or more days off, not that their performance with one or no days off was in any way bad. I think GS takes this one, and if Cleveland does manage to pull it out, it will be one of those deals which goes down to the very wire. Golden State plus the points.
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Stew Baker | 10 |
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Texas has been hot, winning 7 of 9, but I think they have the wrong favorite here. Texas starter Gallaredo seems to be wearing down as he typically does this time of year, with a 4.80 ERA and lasting just an average of 5.0 innings per start since the All-Star break. The Detroit offense he'll be facing, has averaged 5.57 runs per game in its last 7, led by the blistering Miggy Cabrera (13 for 26 with a .618 OBP and .847 slugging since his return from the DL). Detroi should be able to plate some runs against Gallardo.
Gallardo's mound opponent will be the 39 -year old Randy Wolf. Wolf certainly won't overpower anybody with his stuff, but he knows how to pitch. Out of the majors since last season, he's been strong at AAA Buffalo this year, going 9-2 with a 2.58 ERA, and 4-1 with a 1.74 his last 6 starts. He should be able to hold down the Texas offense with his craftiness in his return to the bigs. I'm certainly not in love with the Detroit bullpen, so I don't want to get involved there. But I do give the edge to the Tigers for at least the first 5. The play: Detroiit F5 even.
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Stew Baker | 1 |
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Last time a stud lefthander was traded to Rangers in midseason, he got hammered for 6 runs in his first start at Arlington for his new club. (This fellow also came from Philly, though not directly; having stopped in Seattle for a cup of coffee. Hint: His number at Philly was 33). Looking for history to repeat itself. It also figures to help that Hamels' career ERA on 6 or more days rest is 4.55. Giants + 133 Looking for the stats to land on their ear on this one. Keuchel looks untouchable on paper, but games aren't won on paper. Hellickson has been throwing well too. Snakes have won 6 straight, why not 7? Bet a hunch, win a bunch. Snakes + 188 GL |
Stew Baker | 1 |
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BC
Were'nt you at one time looking at a tightener which involved eliminating games where the total was over some high number like 206 or something? How is that playing out currently?
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BetCrimes1984 | 8 |
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Quote Originally Posted by shwaiguy: One of the cardinal (no pun intended) rules of life is to never say never. Granted, discretion is needed when trying to pick against a hot team. As far as the Cubs go, their last win was the last game Lester started. Should be interesting.
One of the rules in betting baseball, "Never bet against a streak wins or loses!". Cubs on a 4 game losing streak and the Cards are on a 8 game win streak!!! The pick here is obvious! |
Stew Baker | 9 |
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Been looking for a spot to beat the Cards.Lester has been dominant last two outings; Cards haven't been good against lefthanders. Lynn is formidable also, Cubs may have to win a close one. Worth a shot at the price.
Cubs +116
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Stew Baker | 9 |
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Quote Originally Posted by dilaudid8: You mentioned 4 games on the card so far. I combed through this twice and I only see Pit, WF, & Dal. Are we missing somrthing?
drop I think with the 4 games that I posted you should be good . but in gambling anything can happen can all lose yes it has happened and it will happen again. because bball is not my sport but i'm a number guy if the number is wrong which I think it is I will make a wager even if its a bad team its all about the number and juice if juice is to high I will not bet on that game I have 2 more games i'm looking at bol |
dilaudid8 | 279 |
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8mg.!
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dilaudid8 | 279 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Kaka123: MLB > Scores and Matchups > Line Moves undeneath the Mia @ LAA boxscore. I see for offshore sportsbooks 5dimes, Belmont, DSI, Bet Online, Bookmaker, Carbon, GTBets, Sportsbook, & TopBet, and that's it. There's some reason I'm not seeing what you're seeing, I just don't know what it is. Anuyone have any ideas?
Pinnacle is listed. It's right under PaddyPower. |
Kaka123 | 36 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Kaka123: Yes, thanks, I use that tool. Pinnacle is not however one of the sportsbooks which they ususally list.
Select MLB at the top of this page then select MLB Scores & Matchups -> Line moves in the boxscores of the games that interests you. |
Kaka123 | 36 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Kaka123: How do you check Pinnacle Sports line movements? (I beleive you got the line you posted, btw, just wanted to know how to access that info.)
And before someone makes a comment about the line I'm posting. This line was available when I posted my pick on Twitter and you can check Pinnacle Sports line movements to see if this line was available when it came out. |
Kaka123 | 36 |
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Corey Kluber has been monstrous his last 3 starts. He's been having a stellar season regardless. So you know he's going to be overpriced. And he's not going to win every game.He may be due to come down to earth a little.
The Chicago White Sox, whom he's facing tonight, have been competitive lately And their hurler, Hector Noesi, has nasty stuff. He's liable to uncork a gem on any given night, and has already done so twice this season (since being switched back to a starter), and twice careerwise against the Indians in 2 opportunities. I'm taking the big dog here. CWS +200 CWS 1st 5 +190
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Stew Baker | 1 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ALTABLOCK: "8 at -115 is way better than 8.5 ev." Really? Better, yes, but way better? If Pinnacle's total on a game is 8 1/2, and you would rather go over 8 instead, Pinnacle will generally let you buy that 1/2 run for 19 cents. Conversely,if they have a game at 8 1/2 and you want to bet under and prefer to go under the 8 instead and catch a better price, Pinnacle will generally give you 17 cents in return for giving up that half run. Selling to the player for 19 cents and offering to buy it from the player for 17, Pinnacle is essentially saying that the true value of the difference between 8 1/2 and 8 is 18 cents. And Pinnacle is regarded as the sharpest book in the world. 18 cents is way better than 15? Where are you getting your figures from? P.S. Not busting on you, just calling you out on your figures.
8 AT -115 is way better than 8.5 EV i have learned from the best, and was always taught that parlays and teasers are the biggest sucker bet in the casino. casinos depend on parlays to make money. its their biggest income. looks like you one of the few acceptations! keep it up! BOL KIEFFER (i only bet straight bets. unless its football season and i let my kids fill out 5$ 3 teamers) |
ALTABLOCK | 14 |
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< shooting guard, not point guard
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begginerboy | 46 |
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy: Back in the day (?!) I had a dream that Vernon Maxwell (starting point guard for the Houston Rockets) would be suspended for the next day's matchup against Portland. But I went ahead and laid the 5 points anyway. Sure enough, morning of the game, Maxwell, although not suuspended, was in jail, nabbed during a traffic stop for possessing an unregistered gun.I did see a dream last night where the Pacers scored in the 70's, but was not gonna post a play based on my dreams:) Playing without Maxwell, the Rockets were getting buried in the first half. But luck was on my side that night. Maxwell arrived at the arena in time to start the second half, and lit it up, leading the Rocket comeback. The bet came down to the last six seconds, with the Rockets up 4 and Olajuwan canning two free throws for the cover. |
begginerboy | 46 |
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Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper: If you do the subtraction, that leaves, for 1st rd. elimination games 4 & 5, O/U 31-43, 58.1% favoring the under. Is that something that's worth keeping an eye on?
Favors the over actually.
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LeagueCapper | 35 |
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LC, what is the record for the unders in elimination games in games 4 and 5 for just rounds 2 onward? Given the seemingly greater tendency towards the under in the later rounds, I was wondering if this tightener would improve on the 62-56, 52.5% record for all rounds together.
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LeagueCapper | 35 |
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[Quote: Originally Posted i by Gothcha1] Sportsfan insists that a trend is only statistically significant if you have 100 trials.
This whole thread according to his genius perspective on stats is garbage [/Quote]How do you know that what SportsFan says isn't garbage? Seriously, though, the statistical significance of a trend does increase as the number of trials grows. The other side of the coin is that trends based on higher numbers of trials are likely to be better known, meaning there probably will be line adjustments in those situations, which will suck the value out of the trends. Out of curiosity, how do you arrive at your bets, and what's your percentage?
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LeagueCapper | 35 |
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