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Quote Originally Posted by sawman: Wasn't gonna post but may as well Sandro $50 at -105 and $30 at even Bezerra $50 at -160... Kguin convinced me with his write up! Lets make a few bucks tonight fellas aww sorry sawman, tough night for me. bezzer 1st rd was what i thought the whole fight would be |
sawman | 8 |
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Quote Originally Posted by CTownLetdown: Gl I'm on Cramer & Marlon as well. Locked in on Marshal/Allev u 1.5 rounds. (-160). What's ur thoughts on that total? ctownl - i would lean to under based on rhino's aggresiveness. not sure how aliev will respond to the pressure. will he go to clinch and just trip marshall down or will he just fight back standing. i am "off" this fight due to the high price. good luck! whipton - good luck, but we disagree on cooper\cramer |
kguin | 7 |
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Been waiting for this card since Bellator 89(losing both plays Spang and Rogers) so revenge was on my mind. I zeroed in on the Sultan Aliev/Doug Marshall fight thinking the line would be about -180 and hoping for less. To my surprise it opened near -300 and has since gone higher so now this is the only fight I won’t be playing. Its a trap, Aliev 3-1 against Marshall is no value at all. Almost looking at Marshall to possibly get the upset and make it to the finals(well not really, just going to pass) I never make a play until the night before, i don’t “look ahead” anymore and it has served me well. Too many factors come into play leading up to the fight(interviews, training, injuries, and the very important weigh in) and i’m happy to say I really like the other 3 main card fights;
Alexandre Bezzera -150 vs Mike Richman +130 – i hope i’m not alone on this one, but i am overly excited to play Bezzera as i see Richman with NO chance to win. When i picture these 2 in the ring, I just have no faith in Richman getting his boxing going and connecting with anything. Bezzera will dominate all facets, he’s faster, stronger, and a distinct grappling advantage that is no contest. Easy.
3 units Alexandre Bezzera -150
Brett Cooper -150 vs Dan Cramer +130 – picked against Cramer last time out and paid the price. I knew he was on a learning curve of great improvement and i didnt’ think he could match Rogers power. I was wrong, he hung in there took some great shots, got thrown to the ground numerous times and kept getting up and ended up being the stronger fighter with more reserve. Cooper a very powerful guy, good wrestling and good power but poor defense in my opinion. Going with the improving Dan Cramer.
2 units Dan Cramer +130
Marlon Sandro -150 vs Magomedrasul “Frodo” Khasbulaev +130 – this line has bounced up and back down to near pick’em. No matter what I’m with Sandro. Sure the clock is ticking, but against Frodo he will be just fine. i think there’s an idea that Sandro really lost to Stepanyan, so it seems Sandro time has passed. Thing is Sandro is extremely durable(only ko’d once) and he won’t get submitted by Frodo, for a featherweight Sandro is a very strong grappler able to take most people down and control them. Frodo doesn’t have the offense he needs to beat Sandro, and I don’t believe he will be the more powerful guy. Frodo has already tapped out in 4 of his 5 losses.
2 units Marlon Sandro -150 good luck with your plays, -boldtiger |
kguin | 7 |
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check this site out for FREE MMA Picks and Join our MMA Contests, FREE to register and win.
Fantasy MMA leagues can be started here This site will track your plays win/loss in units and your winning streaks. thanks, boldtiger |
kguin | 1 |
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Lets get right to it, 11 fights and an intriguing main event between Brian Stann and Wanderlei Silva. Diego Sanchez returns from shoulder surgery as he goes back to lightweight and takes on Takanori Gomi who comes in with a modest 2 fight win streak. Hector Lombard who has a record of 32-3 goes back to Japan where he is just 1-2, takes on tough contender Yushin Okami. Also in a welterweigtht bout, Dong Hyun Kim takes on Siyar Bahadurzada. So this is what I have, 4 official plays:
Diego Sanchez -270 vs Takanori Gomi +230 – a lot of questions surrounding Sanchez for this fight. Coming off shoulder surgery, cutting back down to lightweight, and at 31 how much wear will he show after a whole year off. Since his loss to BJ Penn at the end of 2009, Diego has gone the distance in all 4 of his welterweight fights. Diego sets a strong pace and can outwork most but his hand speed has slowed and he really hasn’t evolved his offense over the years(sanchez is pretty much a boxer with some wrestling). Gomi looked like he was done after he was destroyed by Nate Diaz, but showed better efforts in his last 2 fights(wins) I think Gomi has the perfect matchup here, I believe he can counter Diego’s boxing and stuff whatever takedowns that Sanchez throws at him. This fight is probably going to a decision and Gomi can win the rounds. Diego Sanchez was overweight 2 lbs and will forfeit 20% of his purse.
3 units Takanori Gomi +230
Brian Stann -240 vs Wanderlei Silva +200 – seems comfortable to “go against” the aging Silva but more importantly who is the play “on”? Looking deeper into Stann, he’s beaten Alessio Sakara, Jorge Santiago, Chris Leben, Mike Massenzio and lost to Sonnen and Bisping. Seems to me, he’s a mid-tier guy and I would argue that at 32 years of age, that I don’t see him getting better. As far as Wand goes, he’s been a top level fighter for years, but now I can even admit that he probably shouldn’t be fighting much longer. But despite his 3-5 ufc record, he has beaten Bisping and Cung Le which are mid to top level fighters. So he’s capable, and with a homecoming of sorts to Japan, I look for Silva to be good enough to take Stann out. I become more comfortable the more this line goes up, getting great odds in whats really a pick ‘em fight.
2 units Wanderlei Silva +200
Hector Lombard -220 vs Yushin Okami +190 – majority not even bothering to break this fight down, its Lombard by KO right? Now I understand why Hector brings this aura of destruction but try to think about who he was beating. Lombard’s win over Palhares doesn’t hold much weight for me as Palhares seemed like he didn’t want to be in there and had just been ko’d in his previous bout by Alan Belcher. Okami is confident he can stay upright and clinch and hold, drag Hector down a few times and win a decision. Don’t discount the size and strength of Okami, also look at the resume of Lombard, name his best win? Shlemenko back in 2010? I believe Lombards best is behind him at age 35.
2 units Yushin Okami +190
Dong Hyun Kim -280 vs Siyar Bahadurzada +240 – not really understanding this line, i’m guessing that most think Kim will control Siyar for most of 15 minutes? Well, Siyar has good scrambles and has that unique accurate punching skill that will be trouble for Kim. I will wager the fight stays standing long enough to give Bahadurzada a chance to land something good or just outpoint Kim. Remember, Siyar finished Paulo Thiago in the 1st minute where as Kim had to grind out a decision against Thiago. Kim’s biggest wins over Nate Diaz and TJ Grant where based on his size(both Diaz and Grant are now lightweights) and Siyar is 4-0 with 4 ko/tko’s since moving down to welterweight in late 2010.
1 unit Siyar Bahadurzada +240
“opinions” on other fights;
Takeya Mizugaki -190 vs Bryan Caraway +170 – like what I see from Caraway as he dropped down to bantamweight and finished Mitch Gagnon in his last fight. Mizugaki has been unable to find any consistency alternating wins and losses for the last 3 years. Also, Mizugaki almost always going to a decision has no business being nearly 2-1 here. Caraway can hold his own in the standup and is way ahead of Takeya in the grappling game. Caraway. Mizuto Hirota -110 vs Rani Yahya -110 – looking to the bigger Hirota to impose his will and get the edge in striking. If the fights hits the ground, I think Hirota can get up and keep Yahya from submitting him. Yahya is tough and he has skills but going with Hirota to be physical and control the fight from start to finish.
Stefan Struve -190 vs Mark Hunt +170 – Hunt’s power is a concern but from his height he’s going to have to land an upward punch to hurt Struve. Don’t see that happening. Struve has more ways to win and his winning streak is more impressive than Hunts. This line is about right at 2-1, its almost a play but Struve has been victim to one-punch losses and that reality is present in this fight. Still, picking Struve as Hunt is nearing the end of a career at 38 years.
I know, all dogs? yup thats the way i see it. good luck with your plays everyone, -boldtiger |
kguin | 1 |
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Love these Bellator events. Instead of cutting guys, the UFC should host a weekly MMA show with 3-5 fights. I’m sure it would work for them, have the events here in Las Vegas at a home arena like the Orleans. Back to this event, a pair of lightweight semi-final matchups, a bantamweight bout thrown in there and in the main event, Christian M’Pumbu defends his light heavyweight championship against Attila Vegh. Gonna sit back and watch the action, no official plays. “opinions” on the fights: David Rickels -350 vs Jason Fischer +280 – some might see this as a potential “live” dog spot for Fischer, but I would strongly disagree. I will admit Fisher is faster, and he’s a scrappy tough kid but he’s out of his league in this one. Rickels first cut down was to 160 in their first fight and he was showing some fatigue, but now he’s had a couple of fights and he’s going to improve on that performance. Look for the much bigger and stronger Rickels to stalk and dominate this matchup and probably get a finish. Will Brooks -400 vs Saad Awad +320 – not much to breakdown here, Awad fortunate to catch DeLorenzi with a good shot and get the upset win. Brooks an easy win in his quarterfinal matchup, defeating Ricardo Tirloni by decision. Look for a pretty easy win for Brooks as he uses his athleticism and well rounded skills to put Awad away in one of the first 2 rounds. **If you didn’t see it, on our homepage in the video section; see Will Brooks impressive win over Satoru Kitaoka in Japan at Dream 18 January 2, 2013.
Attila Vegh -150 vs Christian M’Pumbu +130 – can’t get a handle on this one. M’Pumbu is coming off a non-title loss to Travis Wiuff(by decision) and now defends his title as champion for the first time. I think M’Pumbu has the better standup but Vegh pushes the pace better. Its close, nothing strong but I will lean to Vegh based on his youth edge.
good luck with your plays, boldtiger |
kguin | 1 |
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knee
- to your call on schaub, i "can't" believe he fought like that -boldtiger |
kneeunthaface | 6 |
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keven vanlith - agree, i do think a ko for dan is the way he will win. "love" lavar too, when i saw this matchup, i immediately thought "i have to go to the bank"
sawman - thanks, lets make some money! ctm185 - i can understand that. i see it as mixed results due to personal circumstances. he's still young, and i think the matchup is good for him smitty519 - we shall see, i know the majority thinks fodor will be the better man tonight good luck all!! |
kguin | 7 |
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mistake on McGee vs Neer / correct line for Court McGee -250 Josh Neer +210
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kguin | 7 |
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kguin | 1 |
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Leave it to Dana White to have an event headlined by women, where the favorite is about 12-1. Nice. Anyway, there's 12 fights and its time to go to work. Newcomer Caros Fodor meets veteran Sam Stout, Josh Kosheck returns to face Robbie Lawler, a big heavyweight matchup between Brendan Schaub and Lavar Johnson, Josh Neer face Court McGee, both men hoping to stop 2 fight losing streaks and a "title shot is on the line" when Lyoto Machida fights Dan Henderson. 5 official plays, here we go: Lyoto Machida -190 vs Dan Henderson +170 - the more i think about this fight, the more confident i become. I see the fight going like this; Machida hesitant to strike, backing up a lot and Henderson just throwing bombs hoping to land one. If it goes that way, I KNOW Henderson will win. Lyoto has some good trips, but I don't think he will apply his top game in this one. In truth I am a big "dragon" fan, but I know that we've already seen his best. I feel that even though Henderson is much older than Machida that Henderson is the fresher fighter in the ring. I keep hearing that Machida will be patient and counter "Hendo" , no way and even if he did I don't think that wins him the fight. 3 units Dan Henderson +170
Lavar Johnson -110 vs Brendan Schaub -110 - think its the end for Schaub as he's coming in off 2 straight KO losses. At 29, its seems like his chin is "gone" maybe due to training or possibly from his football days catching up to him early in his career as he only has 11 fights. Schaub does have power but the one thing that Lavar does have is a chin, losing by exhaustion in his very first fight being his only ko/tko loss on his record. All of Johnson's other losses were by submission, don't see Schaub becoming a wrestler then submission grappler. In closing, "Big" Lavar has 17 wins and 15 of them are by knockout. Schaub being a favorite is crazy, easy take for the limit at this price. 3 units Lavar Johnson -110
Caros Fodor -120 vs Sam Stout +100 - what's going on here? Fodor the favorite? Caros has 2 ko's and a total of just 9 fights. Am I missing something here, Stout, a very tough veteran has faced much better competition and held his own beating the likes of Joe Lauzon, Matt Wiman, and Yves Edwards. Nothing really concerns me in this fight, going with the bigger, stronger, more experienced fighter. Stout not concerned with anything Fodor brings to the table. 2 units Sam Stout +100 Court McGee -190 vs Josh Neer +170 - don't understand this line at all, Court is actually closer to 3-1 at the time of this entry, but i can't put anything over -190 because I become uncomfortable reading my own writing. McGee hasn't looked good since winning the ultimate fighter in 2010. After his come from behind win over Ryan Jensen he suffered a knee injury that may be one of the reasons why he's had these messy fights. I would never question McGee's heart but I think that his heart may be his main weapon because his skills are lacking. Neer is the type of fighter who looks you in the eye and challenges you to take him out or be taken out. Neer just comes forward and he has much more offense than McGee, Neer has 29 finishes in his 33 wins. This is a make or break fight for McGee(he's dropped down to welterweight in hopes of breaking a 2 fight losing streak) and I'm beginning to think the season he won was one of the weakest in TUF history. Also, don't see him reacting well to the pressure that Neer will put on him. 1 unit Josh Neer +170 Josh Koscheck -450 vs Robbie Lawler +350 - just can't lay off Lawler in this one. When I see Lawler fight, i'm always impressed. He doesn't do well defending submissions but in a stand up battle I'd give him a shot against an aging fighter. Thats right, Kos has turned 35 and his body is starting to break down. A back injury kept him sidelined for almost the last year, and looking at his last few fights he's definitely slowing down. I doubt Kos will be shooting for takedowns which gives Robbie(who has 16 ko's in his 19 wins) a great chance to catch Koscheck with some power shots. Lawler given new life as the UFC has picked him up and given him a great opportunity, so much so that he even decided to train and drop down to welterweight for this fight. "Ruthless" motivated in his return to the UFC. 1 unit Robbie Lawler +350 "opinions" on other fights: Brock Jardine -170 vs Kenny Robertson +150 - like Robertson here, he has the better ground game and he was really performing well in his 2 ufc losses(Pierce and Simpson) Not sure why Jardine the significant favorite, could it be just based on what the fighters look like? I will take Kenny to win the standup and the grappling. Michael Chiesa -220 vs Anton Kuivanen +190 - see this fight going well for Chiesa, his grappling and top game looks pretty good. Its unusual watching him fight, he's tall and very skinny but he fights real strong. Anton already has a couple of ufc fights under his belt(1-1) and looks pretty good on his feet. I did however see him give up the clinch often in fights and I think he will be controlled by Chiesa in this one. Ronda Rousey -1200 vs Liz Carmouche +800 - real quick, I will never pick a favorite thats laying -500> just because I don't like the vibe that comes with a fight like that. Someone is "supposed" to win and the other person has "no real shot" to win. Only play I look for is a play on the underdog, but I don't think Liz will win so its a "pass". Just wanted to explain my 2 cents worth that in big moneyline fights like this, the pressure is there and both fighters are aware of the situation, and this dynamic will always linger to make an impact so be careful. good luck, boldtiger |
kguin | 7 |
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sawman
i meant nothing but respect with my comment. i just remembered losing several parlays where i just had to add that extra -800 or whatever and thats the one that loses. thanks |
sawman | 38 |
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Quote Originally Posted by sawman: Mo/Lima/killaB/rousey. $100 wins$110 good luck sawman, i think your good however, i would recommend Lima/Killa B and leave out Mo and Rousey - $100 wins a little over $90 ... i'm just a nervous guy when it comes to big big favorites, it is a fight ... not that i've been on fire lately or anything. good luck again! |
sawman | 38 |
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Bellator 90 gives me great confidence that I will right the ship and break this losing slump. In the main event, the Featherweight Tournament Final between Rad Martinez and Shahbulat Shamhalaev gives me a very strong selection. In addition, of the 4 tournament semi-final matchups, I’ve got 2 plays. All together 3 official plays:
Rad Martinez -120 vs Shahbulat Shamhalaev +100 – very surprised to see Martinez the favorite here, from my perspective this is a mismatch the other way. Shamhalaev has the youth, more power, better movement and most importantly way more speed. The heavily muscled upper body of Martinez will finally catch up to him in this one, stiff and heavy footed I don’t think he can get out of the way from Shamhalaev’s power shots. A quick finish wouldn’t shock me, if not then a convincing win is certain for Shamhalaev. Not at all concerned Shahbulat came in heavy at weigh ins, he still made weight. 3 units Shabulat Shamhalaev +100 Douglas Lima -190 vs Bryan Baker +170 – see this as 2 guys on different levels, Lima being on a level above Baker. Despite his impressive decision win over Ben Saunders, the last 3 times Baker has stepped up to fight better opponents he got finished. Lima qualifies as a step up, going 5-1 in Bellator with 4 of 5 wins inside the distance. I think Baker throws everything he has but probably gets caught with a shot and the end of the fight follows. Lima focused on a rematch with Askren is business as usual on this night. 3 units Douglas Lima -190 Mikhail Zayats -190 vs Jacob Noe +170 – really liking Noe here as I believe he has the strength advantage along with the better chin. Its difficult to evaluate Zayats upset of “Babalu” Sobral, as Sobral is on the downside of his career. Looking deeper into Zayats, this will only be his 3rd fight in the U.S. and of his 6 losses, he’s been finished 5 times. Jacob Noe already making some noise at Bellator(2-0 with 2 finishes) he has the resume(11 wins; 5 ko/tko’s and 5 subs) that makes me think he can get the job done here. I see Jacob landing a big shot and pouncing on Zayats for the finish. 2 units Jacob Noe +170 “opinions” on other fights: King Mo -1000 vs Emanuel Newton +700 – got some visions of cashing in big with a Newton upset but had to re-evaluate this matchup. First off, I like the idea of going against a fighter with “divided” interest, wants to fight but is also learning to be a pro wrestler. Which does he prefer? Also question King Mo’s evolution as a fighter, he’s at the top of the food chain as a wrestler but with the Boo Birds he’s gotten in the past, he’s now motivated to strike with people. Not sure how thats going to work out going against the better fighters. One thing is clear though, I don’t think its Newton who will challenge him with anything difficult. King Mo should still lead with his wrestling as nobody is better. Just a “pass” on this one. Ben Saunders -375 vs Raul Amaya +300 – saw the first one, and respect Amaya for his effort. Saunders seems to have all the advantages, with his size being a lot of trouble for Raul. Would love to think Amaya a good bet to make it interesting but just don’t see it going any different. Saunders is a true professional, he shows up to fight and this is an opponent he can handle. I’ll just watch though as its too pricey for me to lay against a scrappy dog like Amaya. good luck, boldtiger
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kguin | 3 |
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kguin | 1 |
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good luck sir
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MR219 | 46 |
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Dustin Poirier -120 vs Cub Swanson +100 - absolutely love Dustin Poirier in this fight, there's something special about him and i can really see him possibly being champion one day. He's got the size at featherweight, excellent grappling, striking is coming along and his only real weakness is his defense. As for Cub, I know he's finally healthy and the results are amazing, his unorthodox striking has been giving people major problems lately. However, Swanson doesn't have much of a chance here as Poirier will get him down and finish him.
3 units Dustin Poirier -120
Gunnar Nelson -260 vs Jorge Santiago+220 - this is one of those fights, where the linesmaker can't go too high because of the name recognition, but in actuality this line is really about -400. Don't see Santiago putting up much resistance here, down to 170 for this one having picked up a couple of wins at Titan FC. Another shot with the UFC, where he hasn't had much success(1-4) Jorge is a skilled fighter, but his miles are piling up, a fighting career which includes 6 losses by ko/tko is past his best days and at this point in time might not be good enough to make a home in the UFC.. On the other hand, Gunnar just getting started and has the aggressiveness and wrestling to dominate this fight from start to finish.
2 units Gunnar Nelson -260
Paul Sass -130 vs Danny Castillo +110 - I think a lot of people were surprised that Sass got subbed by Matt Wiman, but sometimes that first loss is just what a young fighter needs to get to the next level. I believe this applies to Sass who has great upside. I like the age matchup too, Sass at 24 vs Castillo at 33. Sass is a strong lightweight with a powerful submission game. Castillo is a solid fighter and will have to stay on his feet to win. I don't see how this doesn't become a grappling match thus I see Sass finishing the fight.
2 units Paul Sass -130
Jimi Manuwa -200 vs Cyrille Diabate +180 - Seen the undefeated Manuwa against Kingsbury and I took a couple of things from that, he has good power punches and knees but he may have cardio issues. Manuwa will have his hands full with the well seasoned Diabate, a talented striker who is very well rounded. Cyrille has advantages on the feet and on the ground, only concern would be his age, at 39 it could be any fight now where Diabate's mind won't agree with his body. Hope its not this fight.
1 unit Cyrille Diabate +180
Renan Barao -300 vs Michael McDonald +250 - i've seen Barao a few times now, and i know what he brings to the table; aggressive and strong, he also has with his diverse attack a very nice long reach which has pretty much been the reason why he's out striking everyone. Can McDonald counter or can he move in and out with his speed? I think he can do both, the one thing that McDonald has over other fighters is his speed and accurate punching. Barao has shown he wants to stand, so this gives McDonald a chance to win a decision. Youngest ufc champion ever, sure why not.
1 unit Michael McDonald +250
"opinions" on other fights;
Josh Grispi -120 vs Andy Ogle +100 - Grispi has faded after a promising start to his career, 3 straight losses and now he's in a must win. Ogle with homefield will give it everything he has to win. It comes down to Grispi who has more skills, but does he really want it? I will go with the hustle and energy of Ogle to send Grispi home with a 4th straight loss.
James Te-Huna -220 vs Ryan Jimmo +190 - looking at Te-Huna to win this one, Jimmo very stiff and I see him getting hit more and backing up most of the fight. Te-Huna looking for a bigger fight after this one. Could it be I'm still upset that Jimmo beat Perosh in his debut? maybe
good luck, boldtiger |
kguin | 1 |
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nice call on dantas! didn't see it going down that way
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MR219 | 12 |
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begins april 6, 2013
season 1 - approx 6months. $2000 cash prizes free to register and play a total of 3 contests. How does it work? straight plays using moneylines, you choose 1, 2 , or 3 units per play. winners are for most net units won (1 -10) longest win streaks (1-5) mid-season grand prix tournament(top 32 are invited to compete head to head in single elimination tourney) final four and champion are winners www.boldtiger.com |
kguin | 1 |
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