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i see tb and pit today as the last 2 2013 plays.
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Danrules24 | 682 |
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Quote Originally Posted by parlay100: going to share? yes. busy right now.
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Danrules24 | 682 |
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Quote Originally Posted by rp-rt: Vegas has nothing to do with the system having a poor year. But Vegas is making it more expensive to lose a 3 game chase. Also with these higher money lines, laying the plays is more difficult because Vegas has wagering limits on games. You have to go to multiple locations to make max plays. average ML with this system over the past 3 years: May-134 Jun-144 Jul-163 Aug-177 As the season progresses favorites get more expensive. |
Danrules24 | 682 |
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Aug13 WL record 19-24 = 44%. Shockingly bad. I have figured out the algorithm used to compute the MLB RPI. So now I just need to create a database of a former year's games and I hope I'd be able to predict the games for that year. A good off-season exercise to see if the RPI system done for, or was 2013 just an abnormally bad year.
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Danrules24 | 682 |
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I see Monday 8/19 plays as LAD and TEX. BOS and PIT are close in RPI, but their L10 records should disqualify them.
TEX at home against HOU. How high will this line be? -330? |
Danrules24 | 682 |
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Spreadsheet with past 3 years. I had to wait for the weekend. I need a new broadband service at my house. Current service was so bad I dropped it. I've had to send this message from a starbucks. 2013 has had a terrible August. The YTD has dropped to 8.8%. Comparing the past 3 years shows the big profit from this system is the month of July. By month the system: May avg ML-134 avg+10.53/100.16 = +10.51%roi Jun avg ML-144 avg+6.34/92.85 = +6.83%roi Jul avg ML-163 avg+23.56/76.00 = +31.00%roi <=== big profit Aug avg ML-177 avg+11.83/137.60 = +8.21%roi 2013 compared to prior years. * many more games played than prior years. * A slightly higher ML this year. * significantly higher average units risked per play. Higher ML causes this. * the standard deviation this year (because of August) has skyrocketed. At the end of July this year's stats looked normal. * we need about 8 straight A game wins to make 2013 numbers compare with prior years. The 6-11 A game record this August is killing the 2013 stats. |
Danrules24 | 682 |
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i have entered the past 3 years in a spreadsheet. i will publish the url when i get an opportunity. busy now. btw, even a bad year such as this is still +8.2% roi.
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Danrules24 | 682 |
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fri i see atl,tex,stl,pit.
== marti to win one ytd +42.20, risked 362.31, 11.42%roi. five losses this year 4.78 11.39 10.48 12.81 6.34 yes, there is high level of risk, especially in august because our ml gets big. |
Danrules24 | 682 |
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bos nyy Mon, pit Tue?
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Danrules24 | 682 |
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I have created a Google doc spreadsheet for the RPI MLB system. I've added the 2013 plays to date. I've also started to add the 2012 plays. Start of the 2012 year up to the all star break. I think the spreadsheet should be publicly visible. I'll add more 2012 plays and maybe get back to 2011.
If this spreadsheet link doesn't work, let me know. I'll try to correct the it. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvefeUqszdq1dEdkUDE3UHlkdWZmTFJvdE45LXhDMkE&usp=sharing A few note about the RPI system 2012 vs 2013. 1. In 2012 the forum started on April 30. They lost 2 series right from the start. So they said, let's start over with the first series of May. I think this is fraudulent. If you publish an "official" play, then it needs to count. No mulligans. I've included the now officially deleted plays from 2012. Also, the forum from 2012 is a pain to follow. Far too much bickering about things other than the RPI system. It was difficult to sort out. Also, they made at least one error, which I have corrected. IMHO, the 2013 forum is much easier to following. Thx. 2. For me there is one key measure above all else to a system's success: ROI. 2012 up to all star break is 6.24% 2013 is 10.46%. I usually consider 10% the cut off point for blindly following a system. Anything under 10% is too risky to follow without additional handicapping. Right now 2013 RPI is right at that 10% cut off point. I have followed the RPI system in prior years and I think 2012 was a bad year. Years prior to 2012 did much better. 3. Big difference between 2012 and 2013 plays. A lot more in 2013 that in 2012. 2012 first half had 79 games (45 series), 2013 had 114 (75 series). 4. game 1 2012 WL=18-27 2013 WL=48-27 game 2 2012 WL=20-7 2013 WL=15-12 game 3 2012 WL=4-3 2013 WL=8-4 In 2012 game 2 was a huge success. In 2013 it looks like game 1. 5. 2012 road vs home plays, 16v 26h. 2013 road vs home plays, 28v 37h. 4 games series with extended plays 2012 VH=2-1 2013 VH=5-5. 6. 2012 avg play -141, 2013 avg play -150. |
Danrules24 | 682 |
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PHL-1'+165
CWS+1'-135 ATLu8-112
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SportsMavin | 1933 |
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MINo192-107
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Nothingman | 62 |
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MINov192-107
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Nothingman | 43 |
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LAL-5-120
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Nothingman | 66 |
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IND ML -150
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Nothingman | 59 |
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TOR-4-103
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Nothingman | 51 |
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WAS+125 ML
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Nothingman | 48 |
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LALov201-108
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Nothingman | 53 |
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Boston u190.5-105
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Nothingman | 39 |
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GSW u193-107
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Nothingman | 75 |
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