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It depends what you are comfortable with. Do the math and make your decision with a dose of what you think will happen mixed in. A small to medium play on Michigan ML is not a bad thing depending upon what you want to get out of this. Look at the math of a few cases and then ask yourself am I comfortable with either outcome. |
Bobaloo1986 | 11 |
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And to clarify..... I need UW to win more $ overall and think the Huskies are a live dog (no pun intended). The UM plays are just about adjusting my winnings with either result. I'm not advocating a UM side play as a stand alone bet is all I wanted to clarify.
I don't like the "short week" aspect of how this year lands on the calendar playing exactly 7 days later and with a late, late night win in New Orleans, then fly to Seattle trying to sleep on the plane, then all the way back to Houston so quickly. I suppose Michigan is the same, but they finished earlier in the day and slightly less miles to cover overall. This next game is way different than the semifinals and having weeks to prepare. This week they do some prep and don't sleep much (at least coaches), and then just go play. Anyway, all that is what kinda gave me pause to just let it ride at the positions I had going into the playoffs. Whichever team rushes the passer better has a good chance to come out on top IMO. It should be a great game.
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
I'm a day late on posting the total play and took a BOL opener for the side play at about 1:00am ET right after the 2nd game wrapped up to adjust my position on Futures, but not many care about that; set to win $ on any of the 4 teams winning a championship in the FBS playoffs as posted in a prior thread. Only problem is if Michigan wins its the lowest payout of the 4, so I took ML -180 and Michigan -4 -110 for two small plays on Monday night. If Michigan wins by 1-3 would be the worst case for me. Hopefully can avoid that. As a fan, I grew up in Washington and will be cheering for the Huskies. Still looking for my old 1991 UW Rose Bowl hat, but can't find it - it's around here somewhere collecting dust. And Under 56.5 -110 (0.3u) |
TD21 | 55 |
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I'm a day late on posting the total play and took a BOL opener for the side play at about 1:00am ET right after the 2nd game wrapped up to adjust my position on Futures, but not many care about that; set to win $ on any of the 4 teams winning a championship in the FBS playoffs as posted in a prior thread. Only problem is if Michigan wins its the lowest payout of the 4, so I took ML -180 and Michigan -4 -110 for two small plays on Monday night. If Michigan wins by 1-3 would be the worst case for me. Hopefully can avoid that. As a fan, I grew up in Washington and will be cheering for the Huskies. Still looking for my old 1991 UW Rose Bowl hat, but can't find it - it's around here somewhere collecting dust.
And Under 56.5 -110 (0.3u) |
TD21 | 55 |
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Cooler, just saw this. Not too late, I would play up to -14 with South Dakota State. No writeup, both boys in a travel basketball tournament this weekend, so busy, busy with other stuff. But the short answer is I think that's the play.
WISEGUY36, Don't forget post #46 ....... added some more at -12.5 -110 (combined 0.5u overall on side play) - couldn't help myself. Took this in addition to Futures - if SDSU wins +0.82u on championship tickets, if Montana wins, break even at +0.0 units.
South Dakota State looks like they're on a mission to win back to back, and I think they can do it somewhat convincingly. I had the Under pegged in the quarterfinals, way wrong in the semis as I didn't think they were peaking at the right time, but I've been recalibrated since then. |
Cooler999 | 7 |
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I thought this article summarized it pretty well for both drives at the end of the game. The 3rd down call before the field goal and all downs on the last drive were bad.
https://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefootball/2024/01/washingtons-near-death-experience-due-to-yet-another-college-coach-who-apparently-failed-math-jones.html?outputType=amp |
jimrockford22 | 21 |
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@MrFreedo no, not really. I haven't reviewed it much,.... staying away from the total thus far. |
TD21 | 55 |
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Added: LSU -9.5 -105 (0.75u) (BAS) I think its a beat down today. QB Nussmeier will be fine to lead this offense. |
TD21 | 55 |
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Iowa / Tennessee Under 36 -112 (DK) (0.4u) and Added U36 -110 (0.35u) — (0.75u overall) |
TD21 | 55 |
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Added: South Dakota State -12.5 -110 (0.25u) (BOL) (combined 0.5u on side), and also free ride on FCS futures with South Dakota State winning the championship or else I’d go more on the side. |
TD21 | 55 |
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@jnethy Sorry I didn’t see this until well into the game last night. I thought about adding more at +5, but never did. Worked out obviously; I’ll take it. |
TD21 | 55 |
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Rutgers today as posted….
Added: Iowa / Tennessee Under 36 -112 (DK) (0.4u)
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TD21 | 55 |
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The super small bowl game play losing streak continues. ….. kind of impressive really. Added this morning: Oklahoma State -3 -105 (0.1u) |
TD21 | 55 |
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BG / Minn Under 51.5 -115 LIVE (0.05u) missed 52.5, but will try this as a very small added action play. |
TD21 | 55 |
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@jpot34 They're good. Basically the old 5 D format with reduced -105 lines closer to game time, so that is nice for closing line plays. Offshore, so moving money around is a little tougher than the regulated US states, but we all managed that way before year after year. One thing is that I don't often use their live lines because of higher juice for the live plays, especially totals. But, that said, they do sometimes offer the more exotic/lower level games for the in-game menu, so its nice to have those occasionally offered at all. |
TD21 | 55 |
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Super small fadeable bowl action continues...... added one more for today. FCS semifinals: Albany +22.5 -110 (1u) (DK) and South Dakota State -16.5 -130 (risk 0.299u to win 0.23u) (FD) FCS Championship Game: South Dakota State -13.5 -110 (0.25u)
Bowl Games: Wyoming -1 -112 (0.28u) & -1.5 -115 (1.5u) -- (combined 1.78u) Washington +4.5 -110 (0.5u) Missouri ML -111 (0.22u) & Missouri -1 -107 (0.28u) -- (combined 0.5u) Rutgers ML -103 (0.2u) (BR) & ML -108 (0.3u) -- (combined 0.5u) Syracuse / South Florida Under 56 -110 (0.25u) Utah State -1.5 -109 (0.15u) (BR) Eastern Michigan +17.5 -110 (0.1u) (BAS) Bowling Green / Minnesota Under 40 -110 (0.07u) (BAS) Added: UNLV +12 -110 (0.07u) (DK) Troy -6.5 -120 (0.05u) (FD) Georgia Southern -3 -115 (0.05u) New Mexico State -3 -120 (0.05u) South Florida +3 -105 (0.05u) Liberty +17.5 -110 (0.2u) & bought out with Oregon -15.5 -105 (0.2u) Florida State +14.5 -110 (1u) & buy-out with Georgia -13.5 -107 (0.29u), Georgia -14 -115 (0.29u) & Georgia -14.5 -105 (0.5u) (FD)
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TD21 | 55 |
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Merry Christmas everyone! Anybody else sleep less than 4 hours last night!? Added to the Rutgers play....
FCS semifinals: Albany +22.5 -110 (1u) (DK) and South Dakota State -16.5 -130 (risk 0.299u to win 0.23u) (FD) FCS Championship Game: South Dakota State -13.5 -110 (0.25u)
Bowl Games: Wyoming -1 -112 (0.28u) & -1.5 -115 (1.5u) -- (combined 1.78u) Washington +4.5 -110 (0.5u) Missouri ML -111 (0.22u) & Missouri -1 -107 (0.28u) -- (combined 0.5u) Rutgers ML -103 (0.2u) (BR) & Added ML -108 (0.3u) -- (combined 0.5u) Syracuse / South Florida Under 56 -110 (0.25u) Utah State -1.5 -109 (0.15u) (BR) Eastern Michigan +17.5 -110 (0.1u) (BAS) Bowling Green / Minnesota Under 40 -110 (0.07u) (BAS) Troy -6.5 -120 (0.05u) (FD) Georgia Southern -3 -115 (0.05u) New Mexico State -3 -120 (0.05u) South Florida +3 -105 (0.05u) Liberty +17.5 -110 (0.2u) & bought out with Oregon -15.5 -105 (0.2u) Florida State +14.5 -110 (1u) & buy-out with Georgia -13.5 -107 (0.29u), Georgia -14 -115 (0.29u) & Georgia -14.5 -105 (0.5u) (FD) |
TD21 | 55 |
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@Mskeets Go small, very small on these action only bowl games. They’re a mess for motivation, etc., etc. I’m looking forward to the playoff games! And riding Wyoming as one larger bowl play.
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TD21 | 55 |
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Almost comical how bad these small action plays are doing for bowl season. FWIW, added this yesterday. I can't see Miami having much interest in this bowl game or this travel destination. FCS semifinals: Albany +22.5 -110 (1u) (DK) and South Dakota State -16.5 -130 (risk 0.299u to win 0.23u) (FD) FCS Championship Game: South Dakota State -13.5 -110 (0.25u)
Bowl Games: Wyoming -1 -112 (0.28u) & -1.5 -115 (1.5u) -- (combined 1.78u) Washington +4.5 -110 (0.5u) Missouri ML -111 (0.22u) & Missouri -1 -107 (0.28u) -- combined (0.5u) Syracuse / South Florida Under 56 -110 (0.25u) Added: Rutgers ML -103 (0.2u) (BR) Utah State -1.5 -109 (0.15u) (BR) Eastern Michigan +17.5 -110 (0.1u) (BAS) Bowling Green / Minnesota Under 40 -110 (0.07u) (BAS) Troy -6.5 -120 (0.05u) (FD) Georgia Southern -3 -115 (0.05u) New Mexico State -3 -120 (0.05u) South Florida +3 -105 (0.05u) Liberty +17.5 -110 (0.2u) & bought out with Oregon -15.5 -105 (0.2u) Florida State +14.5 -110 (1u) & buy-out with Georgia -13.5 -107 (0.29u), Georgia -14 -115 (0.29u) & Georgia -14.5 -105 (0.5u) (FD) |
TD21 | 55 |
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Best I can do to almost completely buy out of FSU,.... added this earlier, first chance to post -- been busy delivering beer and sweets for Christmas gifts. FCS semifinals: Albany +22.5 -110 (1u) (DK) and South Dakota State -16.5 -130 (risk 0.299u to win 0.23u) (FD) FCS Championship Game: South Dakota State -13.5 -110 (0.25u)
Bowl Games: Wyoming -1 -112 (0.28u) & -1.5 -115 (1.5u) -- (combined 1.78u) Washington +4.5 -110 (0.5u) Missouri ML -111 (0.22u) & Missouri -1 -107 (0.28u) -- combined (0.5u) Syracuse / South Florida Under 56 -110 (0.25u) Utah State -1.5 -109 (0.15u) (BR) Eastern Michigan +17.5 -110 (0.1u) (BAS) Bowling Green / Minnesota Under 40 -110 (0.07u) (BAS) Troy -6.5 -120 (0.05u) (FD) Georgia Southern -3 -115 (0.05u) New Mexico State -3 -120 (0.05u) South Florida +3 -105 (0.05u) Liberty +17.5 -110 (0.2u) & bought out with Oregon -15.5 -105 (0.2u) Florida State +14.5 -110 (1u) & buy-out with Georgia -13.5 -107 (0.29u), Georgia -14 -115 (0.29u) & Added Georgia -14.5 -105 (0.5u) (FD) |
TD21 | 55 |
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@Fuse Thanks Fuse! GL to you today and throughout bowl season! |
TD21 | 55 |
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