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oldwiseone
oldwiseone
NFL Betting / Sunday / View Post
Late play being afternoon or SNF?
oldwiseone
oldwiseone
I would state when the line moves across key numbers is when it grabs my attention to at least dig into "why".

In the case of BYU their starting QB is out and they have a backup in Beau Hoge that came in versus Wisconsin and threw 2 INTs.  I don't know anything about him, but I liked BYU this week until Mangum is ruled out.
WahooS
WahooS
Thanks for posting.  Are the Rice & Tenn overs team totals or game?

Appreciate the shares.
Nickel-Bets
Nickel-Bets
NFL Betting / Superbowl 50 / View Post
The way I read the 5Dimes prop is if you take Carolina Over 10 that is the combination of Carolina and Denver.

Denver Under 10, same thing, the combination.

They have other props right in line with this one such as Sacks.  Carolina over 5, Denver Under 5.  I read it as the combination.


oldwiseone
oldwiseone
20mph is accurate.

https://www.google.com/#q=washington+dc+wind+forecast


incognegro
incognegro
Hey Jimmy,

With all the Alabama/MSU action you have is there one you like the most?  I assume MSU TTU but wanted to check.
incognegro
incognegro
Hey Jimmy,

I'm in pretty big on USC either ML or -3 (closing parlays/opening).  My thought process is Wisconsin defense is overrated as they really have not played any respectable offenses outside of Alabama.

Iowa and Nebraska are the next two.

Curious if you have any thoughts on this theory?  I'm seeing some real strong cappers on here pounding Wisconsin so I'm slightly nervous and even hedged a tiny bit with Wisc+10/Bama-3 hah.

I am sticking with my guns that USC can beat a slightly overrated defense and abysmal offense.
HERMES
HERMES
Not disagreeing with your assessment, but I've been pondering "how good is Wisconsin's defense really?".

The only quality offensive team they played all year was Alabama and they did play them tough until the end.

Beyond that they did not play a top 30 offense with the next best being Nebraska and Iowa...


Any thoughts on the actual quality of offensive opponents possibly pumping up their defensive stats?
incognegro
incognegro
Hey Jimmy,

I was hoping you could go more in-depth into the MSST pick.  I leaned them for weeks now but the line move from 7 to 5 crossing key numbers with nearly 80% of the money on them has caused pause on my side.

I try to ignore steam and public percentages.

I also just heard 100% chance of rain for this game as well.  Given both offenses have fantastic QBs (I was already on the over) but now curious your thoughts on how you think the rain impacts points.

Any comments would be great - thanks!
WahooS
WahooS
Unlikely, but any concerns on the sandwich spot for Troy?
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Great day, happy for ya.

On the Colts for SNF.  Know you are a big Pats fan, curious what you have.
jdnmoney
jdnmoney
Any concern that NIU takes out the starters to rest for next week?
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Wish I knew you were back posting, I only came to Covers to read your insights haha.

I was leaning TN all week but didn't play it.  Stayed with WSH, NYJ, PHI, and Pit +7.5

Just put a wager on HOU PK - hope you feel the same.

Welcome back
jdnmoney
jdnmoney
I can only find UCF U 47.5 - still a monster?
jdnmoney
jdnmoney
Spencer Hadley?
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by DukiesBaby:

so many people like to discredit "the public"   well "the public" is not what it used to be.  if you think "the public" is doing so bad at picking games, go talk to some casinos in vegas,  they are having more losing weeks then they are used too...   

Dont over think these games and talk yourself out of good plays, follow your gut if you know football like you think you do, then you should be right more often then not.  




The heavy public bets last week went 1-4.  Same goes for prior weeks.
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
CLE+4
Bad spot for cincy with GB last week and Patriots next week.  CLE may have won but no way the Bengals are taking this game seriously.  CLE still has a top 8 or so defense and with Gordon back their offense has extra punch.  I am not overly confident on this play, but CIN has not been super impressive by any means and got lucky versus GB on bad turnovers.  CLE+4 only based on the spot CIN is in.

HOU+3
Classic case of over versus under valued.  HOU is a good team but have struggled early and just got embarrassed in Baltimore.  The opposite can be said for Seattle.  Home dog that is under valued but has a strong squad top to bottom and is a statement game for them.  Give me the points.

NYG+4
Gotta win eventually riiiight?  I think the Giants struggle against teams who can pass, this is not KC.  KC has a great defense but the Giants are not as bad as advertised.  0-4 is not an option for NYG so this is one of those 'must win' type of games.  This team is known for big runs and KC is a bit over valued currently.  4.5 is alot to give up.

SD+3
Catch my trend?  Going against over valued teams is what I like to do.  Dallas killed STL and looked like champions.  SD lost in a heart breaker to TN.  SD under McCoy is an entirely different team and their offense actually works.  Home dog coming off a loss versus an over valued team is another play I like.


None of these are locked in but are the 4 I'm watching closely.  Possibly some teaser material here and ATS.
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:


Harbaugh has been money off a loss, very true. Still a lot of points to lay


Bingo it is a stay away for me, though I did put SF ML in a parlay.
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Saw a question about the Niners, read some data points about Harbaugh off of a loss.  Avg margin of victory was 17 and opponents average points were less than 7.

Colts defense will not be able to stop SF in the slightest and their defense will give Luck fits, no OL and too much hype going into Trich with no practice there.


LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Not happy to see you aren't on the Titans, but your point regarding the public on Minnesota caught my eye as I've been following that game and others all week.

What I'm seeing currently % bets:
Minn 96%
GB 86%
NYG 91%
ATL 82%
CHI 87%

These are some ridiculous public plays that I've seen and part of me wants to make a few teasers out of it.  Would love your thoughts on which ones to possibly stay away from.  I feel there is decent value with CAR as too many people are simply saying "NYG can't start 0-3".


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